Posted by arssanguinus on 10/1/2016 7:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by poncho0091 on 9/30/2016 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 9/30/2016 6:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 9/30/2016 2:48:00 AM (view original):
Seble can go **** himself. Ruined an entirely good game. I can't even see all of the recruits because of his stubborn attempt to revamp recruiting. And for what? There was no change in prestige, eliminated all the postseason cash. And the retarded flip a coin logic to see who gets a recruit. No recruit that was undecided between 2 schools has ever flipped a coin to decide where to go. I bet he got fired because of all of the complaints. He just shows up out of nowhere after 5 years, tell us we're going to do this and we're going to get started next month, then it's 3 months, then it's 6 months and finally implemented it a year later. And I can understand theonly's frustration and don't blame him one bit for being ****** off. It's not by accident that this many people are leaving the game.

So leave already so the rest of us can use the forums to play the current game. We want to pay our money to play a game we enjoy and use the forums to play the game and share information.

Instead of standing on the street corner prophesying that the end is near.. Stop paying money and stop playing the game.

If enough people stop playing and if enough new players don't show up to make up the difference then WIS will lose money. They either will or will not lose money in the long run. The game will either shut down or continue in the long run. They will either advertise or they won't.

I can tell you this. WIS completely filled D3 in a world and very few stayed from that effort. WIS wants to make changes to fix that, and they made changes. You don't have to like it. But some of us DO like it.

Those of us who want to play the current game deserve a place we can go where we can actually have a forum for game play.

Please ask WIS to create a prophecy of doom forum and take your prophesy of doom posts there where like minded doomsayers can post whatever they want.. And for God's sake let us use the HD forum for playing HD.

If the game goes TITSUP because not enough people pay to play, then I will find something else to spend my time and money on. While it is not TITSUP, how about you let the people who want to pay money and play the game do do.

So everyone else who has put their time and money into the game, and used to also enjoy sharing information on the forums should just suck it up, because, some people like the new update. Screw the guys who liked the game.

I'm not sure where you got that they filled DIII, because I have teams in DIII, and it was not filled anytime in the last few years. In addition, the only reason there was an increase is because it was FREEHD, and we all know a large portion of FREEHD is just existing users trying to game the system, or start new teams. I remember one guy who used FREEHD to make about 6 or 7 different screennames so he could maintain one team. The new update is not going to retain more users, and if anything is going to **** someone off the first time they realize the random roll of recruiting with the preferences.

If it's not 100% deterministic in recruiting then it's just random?

Technically, yes. The exact definition of random is: 2. odd, unusual, or unexpected
A dice roll is random. A guy signing with the team other than the one he identifies as his #1 choice is odd, unusual, and unexpected. If you want to say this happens in real life recruiting, that would be false. In this case, even if a kid has a list of teams in order and picks #2, it would be expected that the 2 teams would have been equal (or very close), and in terms of WIS, both would be listed as Very High.

This has nothing to do with 1 person wanting the game exactly as they want. This is a large portion of the user base who is not in agreement with a lot of the changes.

Posted by poncho0091 on 10/1/2016 2:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by arssanguinus on 10/1/2016 7:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by poncho0091 on 9/30/2016 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 9/30/2016 6:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 9/30/2016 2:48:00 AM (view original):
Seble can go **** himself. Ruined an entirely good game. I can't even see all of the recruits because of his stubborn attempt to revamp recruiting. And for what? There was no change in prestige, eliminated all the postseason cash. And the retarded flip a coin logic to see who gets a recruit. No recruit that was undecided between 2 schools has ever flipped a coin to decide where to go. I bet he got fired because of all of the complaints. He just shows up out of nowhere after 5 years, tell us we're going to do this and we're going to get started next month, then it's 3 months, then it's 6 months and finally implemented it a year later. And I can understand theonly's frustration and don't blame him one bit for being ****** off. It's not by accident that this many people are leaving the game.

So leave already so the rest of us can use the forums to play the current game. We want to pay our money to play a game we enjoy and use the forums to play the game and share information.

Instead of standing on the street corner prophesying that the end is near.. Stop paying money and stop playing the game.

If enough people stop playing and if enough new players don't show up to make up the difference then WIS will lose money. They either will or will not lose money in the long run. The game will either shut down or continue in the long run. They will either advertise or they won't.

I can tell you this. WIS completely filled D3 in a world and very few stayed from that effort. WIS wants to make changes to fix that, and they made changes. You don't have to like it. But some of us DO like it.

Those of us who want to play the current game deserve a place we can go where we can actually have a forum for game play.

Please ask WIS to create a prophecy of doom forum and take your prophesy of doom posts there where like minded doomsayers can post whatever they want.. And for God's sake let us use the HD forum for playing HD.

If the game goes TITSUP because not enough people pay to play, then I will find something else to spend my time and money on. While it is not TITSUP, how about you let the people who want to pay money and play the game do do.

So everyone else who has put their time and money into the game, and used to also enjoy sharing information on the forums should just suck it up, because, some people like the new update. Screw the guys who liked the game.

I'm not sure where you got that they filled DIII, because I have teams in DIII, and it was not filled anytime in the last few years. In addition, the only reason there was an increase is because it was FREEHD, and we all know a large portion of FREEHD is just existing users trying to game the system, or start new teams. I remember one guy who used FREEHD to make about 6 or 7 different screennames so he could maintain one team. The new update is not going to retain more users, and if anything is going to **** someone off the first time they realize the random roll of recruiting with the preferences.

If it's not 100% deterministic in recruiting then it's just random?

Technically, yes. The exact definition of random is:

1. made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

2. odd, unusual, or unexpected
A dice roll is random. A guy signing with the team other than the one he identifies as his #1 choice is odd, unusual, and unexpected. If you want to say this happens in real life recruiting, that would be false. In this case, even if a kid has a list of teams in order and picks #2, it would be expected that the 2 teams would have been equal (or very close), and in terms of WIS, both would be listed as Very High.

This has nothing to do with 1 person wanting the game exactly as they want. This is a large portion of the user base who is not in agreement with a lot of the changes.

No. Those are poor definitions of the term. The second is simply based on imprecise slang vernacular (see 4. below). Better definitions, from dictionary.com:

"1.proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:
the random selection of numbers.
2.Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.
3.Building Trades.

1. (of building materials) lacking uniformity of dimensions:
   random shingles.
2. (of ashlar) laid without continuous courses.
3. constructed or applied without regularity:
   random bond.

4. Slang.

1. unknown, unidentified, or suspiciously out of place:
   A couple of random guys showed up at the party.
2. odd or unpredictable, often in an amusing way:
   my totally random life."

You could make a case that use of a "random number generator" is an inherent "random" feature. But it would be a poor case, because the number generated only has meaning in context of the *not random* parameters set around it. 3.0 specifically does not meet the "random" test by definition 2 above, and it really couldn't be any clearer. Random implies that there is no rhyme or reason, and that the probability sets are either all the same, or at least beyond control of the user. Neither option is true for 3.0.

I hate to split hairs on semantics, but it really does matter, because people keep throwing around these terms without knowing the full implications of them. Recruiting is not random in 3.0. It is based on maximizing your probabilities efficiently. You have tons of control over how high your probability ends up on a given recruit; but because you're recruiting against other live people who also have tons of control over their own probabilities, no one has *complete* control. For some, this means "random". But that's just not an accurate use of the term, nor does it demonstrate a good understanding of the game that exists.

Posted by pkoopman on 10/1/2016 4:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by poncho0091 on 10/1/2016 2:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by arssanguinus on 10/1/2016 7:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by poncho0091 on 9/30/2016 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 9/30/2016 6:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 9/30/2016 2:48:00 AM (view original):
Seble can go **** himself. Ruined an entirely good game. I can't even see all of the recruits because of his stubborn attempt to revamp recruiting. And for what? There was no change in prestige, eliminated all the postseason cash. And the retarded flip a coin logic to see who gets a recruit. No recruit that was undecided between 2 schools has ever flipped a coin to decide where to go. I bet he got fired because of all of the complaints. He just shows up out of nowhere after 5 years, tell us we're going to do this and we're going to get started next month, then it's 3 months, then it's 6 months and finally implemented it a year later. And I can understand theonly's frustration and don't blame him one bit for being ****** off. It's not by accident that this many people are leaving the game.

So leave already so the rest of us can use the forums to play the current game. We want to pay our money to play a game we enjoy and use the forums to play the game and share information.

Instead of standing on the street corner prophesying that the end is near.. Stop paying money and stop playing the game.

If enough people stop playing and if enough new players don't show up to make up the difference then WIS will lose money. They either will or will not lose money in the long run. The game will either shut down or continue in the long run. They will either advertise or they won't.

I can tell you this. WIS completely filled D3 in a world and very few stayed from that effort. WIS wants to make changes to fix that, and they made changes. You don't have to like it. But some of us DO like it.

Those of us who want to play the current game deserve a place we can go where we can actually have a forum for game play.

Please ask WIS to create a prophecy of doom forum and take your prophesy of doom posts there where like minded doomsayers can post whatever they want.. And for God's sake let us use the HD forum for playing HD.

If the game goes TITSUP because not enough people pay to play, then I will find something else to spend my time and money on. While it is not TITSUP, how about you let the people who want to pay money and play the game do do.

So everyone else who has put their time and money into the game, and used to also enjoy sharing information on the forums should just suck it up, because, some people like the new update. Screw the guys who liked the game.

I'm not sure where you got that they filled DIII, because I have teams in DIII, and it was not filled anytime in the last few years. In addition, the only reason there was an increase is because it was FREEHD, and we all know a large portion of FREEHD is just existing users trying to game the system, or start new teams. I remember one guy who used FREEHD to make about 6 or 7 different screennames so he could maintain one team. The new update is not going to retain more users, and if anything is going to **** someone off the first time they realize the random roll of recruiting with the preferences.

If it's not 100% deterministic in recruiting then it's just random?

Technically, yes. The exact definition of random is:

1. made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

2. odd, unusual, or unexpected
A dice roll is random. A guy signing with the team other than the one he identifies as his #1 choice is odd, unusual, and unexpected. If you want to say this happens in real life recruiting, that would be false. In this case, even if a kid has a list of teams in order and picks #2, it would be expected that the 2 teams would have been equal (or very close), and in terms of WIS, both would be listed as Very High.

This has nothing to do with 1 person wanting the game exactly as they want. This is a large portion of the user base who is not in agreement with a lot of the changes.

No. Those are poor definitions of the term. The second is simply based on imprecise slang vernacular (see 4. below). Better definitions, from dictionary.com:

"1.proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:
the random selection of numbers.
2.Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.
3.Building Trades.

1. (of building materials) lacking uniformity of dimensions:
   random shingles.
2. (of ashlar) laid without continuous courses.
3. constructed or applied without regularity:
   random bond.

4. Slang.

1. unknown, unidentified, or suspiciously out of place:
   A couple of random guys showed up at the party.
2. odd or unpredictable, often in an amusing way:
   my totally random life."

You could make a case that use of a "random number generator" is an inherent "random" feature. But it would be a poor case, because the number generated only has meaning in context of the *not random* parameters set around it. 3.0 specifically does not meet the "random" test by definition 2 above, and it really couldn't be any clearer. Random implies that there is no rhyme or reason, and that the probability sets are either all the same, or at least beyond control of the user. Neither option is true for 3.0.

I hate to split hairs on semantics, but it really does matter, because people keep throwing around these terms without knowing the full implications of them. Recruiting is not random in 3.0. It is based on maximizing your probabilities efficiently. You have tons of control over how high your probability ends up on a given recruit; but because you're recruiting against other live people who also have tons of control over their own probabilities, no one has *complete* control. For some, this means "random". But that's just not an accurate use of the term, nor does it demonstrate a good understanding of the game that exists.

We could go back and forth on this all day, since you want choose a different source for the definition. I could gladly go pull the Merriam Webster definition, but honestly, you are just "splitting hairs" at this point, especially when you completely ignored the first non slang definition. Ultimately, the decision is in fact random. For you to argue that is disingenuous just to support your stance. If a "dice roll" decision is made at any point in time, this is in fact a random decision, no matter how you try to spin it. No one here is trying to say the entire process is random, but the final decision is random if it's not determined by who is leading, unless of course there were non random factors that would make the lead team (on the surface), not be the lead team behind the scenes. The definition you are trying to apply to our statements is that we're trying to say a recruit would sign with someone who didn't even recruit them, which would indicate no parameters and complete randomness, but again, no one is saying that. You and anyone with some common sense would understand that.

I focused on the second of the definitions you offered because you did. If you want to test it by the first, it still falls short. There is a method in 3.0, and the probabilities are influenced by the conscious decisions of multiple users.

If I'm splitting hairs, it's because I think it matters. A lot of the dissatisfaction is based on mistaken assumptions, including people assuming more chance than is actually involved. There is some chance (implying probabilities), yes. But chance and random aren't synonyms. For people who enjoyed 2.0 and are struggling with 3.0, adjusting is largely going to be a matter of realizing and finding those places where their choices impact the probabilities, and embracing those decision points as the new strategic landscape. When people improperly toss around terms like "coin flip" and "random", they obscure this process of adjustment for themselves and others.

Dice Roll Dynasty

All the math nerds may now rejoice.

Posted by pkoopman on 10/1/2016 5:10:00 PM (view original):
I focused on the second of the definitions you offered because you did. If you want to test it by the first, it still falls short. There is a method in 3.0, and the probabilities are influenced by the conscious decisions of multiple users.

If I'm splitting hairs, it's because I think it matters. A lot of the dissatisfaction is based on mistaken assumptions, including people assuming more chance than is actually involved. There is some chance (implying probabilities), yes. But chance and random aren't synonyms. For people who enjoyed 2.0 and are struggling with 3.0, adjusting is largely going to be a matter of realizing and finding those places where their choices impact the probabilities, and embracing those decision points as the new strategic landscape. When people improperly toss around terms like "coin flip" and "random", they obscure this process of adjustment for themselves and others.

As it stands right now, chance seems to play a far, far greater roll than coach skill or behavior. This is Dice Roll Dynasty. If you can't see that based on the outcomes so far, I am sure the tables in Vegas would be eager to have you pay them a visit.

Posted by vandydave on 10/1/2016 5:18:00 PM (view original):
Dice Roll Dynasty

All the math nerds may now rejoice.

But you decide how many sides are on the dice, so it isn't really a dice roll. I wish people would just understand this.

Posted by pkoopman on 10/1/2016 5:10:00 PM (view original):
I focused on the second of the definitions you offered because you did. If you want to test it by the first, it still falls short. There is a method in 3.0, and the probabilities are influenced by the conscious decisions of multiple users.

If I'm splitting hairs, it's because I think it matters. A lot of the dissatisfaction is based on mistaken assumptions, including people assuming more chance than is actually involved. There is some chance (implying probabilities), yes. But chance and random aren't synonyms. For people who enjoyed 2.0 and are struggling with 3.0, adjusting is largely going to be a matter of realizing and finding those places where their choices impact the probabilities, and embracing those decision points as the new strategic landscape. When people improperly toss around terms like "coin flip" and "random", they obscure this process of adjustment for themselves and others.

In your description, the method, the portion the users control, only gets you to the door. Ultimately, the random factor is what opens the door for you (signing the recruit). That final dice roll really is not influenced at all by what the users do, which again makes it random. Getting to that dice roll, is the user influence, but it's all random after that. That's a pretty big deal.

People are not improperly tossing the random/coin flip term around. You and others are improperly interpreting what is being said.

OK.. How is it fair that if you have put 40% of the total effort a recruit receives that you don't get 40% chance to sign him.

How is it fair if you put in 3x the effort on a recruit as another school and you DONT sign him?

You can spin it any way you want.

Posted by snafu4u on 10/1/2016 5:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pkoopman on 10/1/2016 5:10:00 PM (view original):
I focused on the second of the definitions you offered because you did. If you want to test it by the first, it still falls short. There is a method in 3.0, and the probabilities are influenced by the conscious decisions of multiple users.

If I'm splitting hairs, it's because I think it matters. A lot of the dissatisfaction is based on mistaken assumptions, including people assuming more chance than is actually involved. There is some chance (implying probabilities), yes. But chance and random aren't synonyms. For people who enjoyed 2.0 and are struggling with 3.0, adjusting is largely going to be a matter of realizing and finding those places where their choices impact the probabilities, and embracing those decision points as the new strategic landscape. When people improperly toss around terms like "coin flip" and "random", they obscure this process of adjustment for themselves and others.

As it stands right now, chance seems to play a far, far greater roll than coach skill or behavior. This is Dice Roll Dynasty. If you can't see that based on the outcomes so far, I am sure the tables in Vegas would be eager to have you pay them a visit.

Not even remotely close.

Talk about gross exaggeration.

Posted by poncho0091 on 10/1/2016 8:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pkoopman on 10/1/2016 5:10:00 PM (view original):
I focused on the second of the definitions you offered because you did. If you want to test it by the first, it still falls short. There is a method in 3.0, and the probabilities are influenced by the conscious decisions of multiple users.

If I'm splitting hairs, it's because I think it matters. A lot of the dissatisfaction is based on mistaken assumptions, including people assuming more chance than is actually involved. There is some chance (implying probabilities), yes. But chance and random aren't synonyms. For people who enjoyed 2.0 and are struggling with 3.0, adjusting is largely going to be a matter of realizing and finding those places where their choices impact the probabilities, and embracing those decision points as the new strategic landscape. When people improperly toss around terms like "coin flip" and "random", they obscure this process of adjustment for themselves and others.

In your description, the method, the portion the users control, only gets you to the door. Ultimately, the random factor is what opens the door for you (signing the recruit). That final dice roll really is not influenced at all by what the users do, which again makes it random. Getting to that dice roll, is the user influence, but it's all random after that. That's a pretty big deal.

People are not improperly tossing the random/coin flip term around. You and others are improperly interpreting what is being said.

That's simply not true. It's not how statistics and probability work. The only thing "random" is what the random number generator spits out. But the parameters of what that number will mean are determined by choices users make. Your choices and actions have determined how many lottery balls out of 100 you will have. That's not random, so the result can't be called random. It's not outside your influence.

The probability is 100% in your control.
The result is 0% in your control.

Posted by mullycj on 10/1/2016 8:34:00 PM (view original):
How is it fair if you put in 3x the effort on a recruit as another school and you DONT sign him?

You can spin it any way you want.

If you have 3x the effort credit, you will sign the player. The effort cutoff is something around 60/40 to 65/35. So even twice the effort, and you'll get the player, the other team won't make it past moderate. This is where it's important to remember there's a difference between effort credit and signing odds. They don't match each other. You need to get somewhere over 35% *of effort credit* in a 2-way race (based on seble's discussions cited elsewhere today by possum) to get to high, but that doesn't mean you'll have a 35% chance. Probably more like 20% or so, because he powered it to favor the highest team.

Posted by mullycj on 10/1/2016 9:39:00 PM (view original):
The probability is 100% in your control.
The result is 0% in your control.

If the random number generator spits out 59 or lower, and the signing odds are 59/41, the favored team gets the recruit. You didn't influence the number that was spit out, but you *did* influence what that number meant. You had influence over the result. It isn't "random".

ETA - or it could be 41 or higher, based on how it's programmed. The odds are the same either way, of course.