The top 5 values when factoring minutes:

	Name	efg%#	efg%#*m#
1	93-94 Shaquille O'Neal	40.97	34.23
2	89-90 Karl Malone	36.97	29.91
3	10-11 Dwight Howard	38.48	29.27
4	71-72 Kareem Abdul Jabbar	31.45	29.20
5	70-71 Kareem Abdul Jabbar	32.28	27.50

The formula for efg%#*m#:  usgpts/14.5*(efg%-50)*10*(1.02*min/3936)


Shaq has 4 of the next 5, too.
The 97 Mailman season ranks 28th.
The admiral's best season ranks 127th.
Moses didn't even have a high enough efg% to make my spreadsheet (bottom limit was 55% for tier 3s), but manually putting it in, he would fall right around that rank with 11.5ish points.

Again... he has other positives.  But for just the sheer offensive scoring efficiency from the field... Shaq can't be beat.  I'd do the whole thing with TS%, but since the guys that live at the line don't get near as many FTAs in the sim, it skews the data a lot.

Other interesting facts:  A tier 4 usage player just missed the top 10 (67 Wilt #11 - not really surprising).

The first tier 3 usage player to make an appearance?  Barkley in at 14 & 15.  (also in at 13 but it's his tier 2 season).

Jordan's first appearance is in at 17.

ash, i think ur putting too much emphasis on usage points (as long as u have at least 10 usage points on the floor at all times), i think the formula should be more like: (efg%#-50%)*minutes*usg%.........with regards to "offense is king", while i agree that u won't win this league with an inefficient offense, u won't win this league with a bad defense either

1

93-94 Shaquille O'Neal

40.97

34.23

i cant wait to see that in action in the pcl this year

I can't wait either..*sigh*

nc, I respectfully disagree.  I've spent (literally) months running experiments with usage and have noticed a marked improvement in fg% (and a minor improvement with tov%) with more than 10 usage points on the floor.  14.5 seems to be the sweet spot as for what you get versus the cost.  I've had much more success running even 12.5 over 12.0.

*note - this is for individual possession penalty issues.  The team one is fine with just the 10, you're absolutely right about that.

I use the usage points instead of usage% because WIS apparently thinks there is a huge difference between a guy with 27.3% usage and one with 27.1% usage and because I know my target usage points... cumulative usage can vary greatly and still end up with the same total usage points.

Anyway... you can do the same formula using usage instead of my usage coefficient if you like... I'm sticking with my work.


dh - I'm not!

I have always had an affinity for Shaq because of the super high efg, huge usg. and very low TO's. Only two downsides - only one position eligible and his FT% is disgraceful, which will cost you games.

Seems to me the Sim creates more turnovers than in real life, sometimes amazingly so. My last open league team had 700, as in seven freaking hundred, more turnovers than real life.


Paul has a 4.4 A\T with high steals, low fouls, many 3's, 90 defense,  and an an ok efg.  That makes his numbers close to unique at PG- I guess Magic Johnson's are roughly comparable. I think they should both be top half 1st round picks.


And Johnson was a Laker. I'd rather have a three way with Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi than draft a Laker in the 1st round.

Ash, I have a question about usage and how the sim decides who is most likely to take shots. Say I draft three tier three usage guys, giving me 12 usage points. One with 23 usage, one with 25, one with 27. Would the player with 27 usage% be most likely to take a shot, or are all three as likely to take a shot? Based on what I've seen, usage points matter more than usage% in deciding who takes shots.

no, usage% is what's used in deciding who takes the shot.

Usage points are what's used when determining the team possession penalty.

"did they shoot significantly more than they did IRL divided by 82 games" is what's used for determining the individual possession penalty.  Very gray area since everyone shoots more than they did IRL - what is significant?

ash, you can attach any formula you like when assessing "the most valuable" players in ascending order... and you seem to have found one that works well for you, but i approach the choosing of a player based on his 20% contribution to the starting 5.

if a player like robinson or barkley or jordan's fta's hover in the 650-700 range, i am not likely to take another player who shoots that many fta's. i know owners like to bolster the amount of fta's but the sim makes adjustments. so, if i draft durant, he, and only he, will be achiving his rl fta's on my team. i then can focus on another area when choosing a player next.

i disagree with you about pairing rodman up with another monster oreb guy. to me, it's not efficient enough and overkill. you look at usage and tier # scoring strongly, as you should, but i will also evaluate rebounders the same way... a tier 1 boardman like rodman or many undrafted players thus far and pair them up with a tier 2 boardman like drob or jabbar. two tier 1 boardmen dilute their prowess around the glass. but i have learned from you how extremely important it is to have a strong rebounding guard. it is essential. kidd and magic do this, but so do 6 others. there aren't many to be had in draft leagues, so landing one of those guys is a difficult thing to know when to pull the trigger. 

to me, the most important number of all is 19-19-5% usage. these guys are immensely important, especially if they d-up and have low fouls and t.o.'s. i surround my 27-31% usage guy with 3 of these fellows who bring 1 excellent skill each to the 5 man rotation. the 5th player will be low usage, 12-15%, but he will excel in 2 areas.

and of course, there is the "feel" factor in building a squad. we all know this feeling, especially if you have to evaluate other teams. yeah, you guys have your formulas, and golden oldies like me, 98, coachcroft, etc... we have our dumb luck. last time i looked, 98 is the all-time leader in making the playoffs i think. haha.

i love draft leagues!


 

I've got more data to throw your way (especially NC), but right now I don't feel like typing the wall of text & formulas to support it.  Basically, though, using just straight usage & efg% instead of some kind of weighted formula, a tier 6 usage center with 61.87% efg% has as much impact on the game offensively as 89-90 Michael Jordan... which is ludicrous.  I'll show you the math later if you don't believe it.  Or do it yourself =p  So a formula that gives me that result is not helpful... but one that actually shows me some usefulness (and usage tier is useful... it's easier to build a team around an 8 point guy than a 6 point guy than a 4 point guy...)

Scud... I love draft leagues, too!  Theory & conjecture is fun to talk about... probably way more fun the actual league... but "on the court" is where theory becomes something more.

shuttlesworth moves into the 1st....i like it....i think his 500 3s and 500 fts last season helped a bit

Posted by ashamael on 8/7/2012 9:39:00 AM (view original):
I've got more data to throw your way (especially NC), but right now I don't feel like typing the wall of text & formulas to support it.  Basically, though, using just straight usage & efg% instead of some kind of weighted formula, a tier 6 usage center with 61.87% efg% has as much impact on the game offensively as 89-90 Michael Jordan... which is ludicrous.  I'll show you the math later if you don't believe it.  Or do it yourself =p  So a formula that gives me that result is not helpful... but one that actually shows me some usefulness (and usage tier is useful... it's easier to build a team around an 8 point guy than a 6 point guy than a 4 point guy...)

Scud... I love draft leagues, too!  Theory & conjecture is fun to talk about... probably way more fun the actual league... but "on the court" is where theory becomes something more.

I think it's ludricrous to suggest that a 33% usage player is twice as valuable as a 27% usage player (if they have the same eFG% and minutes).  I actually think that 50% is probably too high of a "baseline" (since that formula says that the ------ is a negative).  Perhaps (eFG%-45%)*usg%*minutes would be better.  With that formula, a 30% usg 55% eFG player would rate the same as a 20% usg 60% eFG player (if they have the same minutes).  IMO, having 10 usage points on the floor at all times is fairly easy, which is why I wouldn't rate players using their usage tier.

Well you and I certainly have a bunch of different opinions... which is nothing new!

45% as the baseline is terrible.  Ummm that guy you mentioned that hasn't been drafted IS a negative in my mind.  I know you dominated an OL with him... but this isn't a tool for OLs.  I guess I haven't explained that well, but whatever.  I've done draft leagues with the high usage, medoicre efg% plenty... and the results are never as good as they are when I base them around high efg% guys. OLs?  I've won plenty of OLs basing a team round a guy with 51% efg (Jordan).  Maybe the baseline drops to 49, but that's about as low as it's going to go.

You just completely miss the point about why I use usage tiers so I'm done trying to rub your nose in it.

The formula's not perfect, but it sure has served me well.  Again, your changes make a tier 6 usage guy become too valuable on the floor... I'm sorry, but (damn these draft commentary rules) ummm that guy who rebounds and defends well and shoots 62% from the floor maybe 8 times a game does not have the same impact on a team as Michael Jordan.  That's what happened with your formula before.  Now, the lessening the base by 5 makes that not true anymore...  But that does make that same guy as valuable as a third tier guy that shoots 56%.  That's useless.

Using a useless formula is not my goal.  I need the math to determine something useful.

edit:

nc... the more I think about it... the more I agree with some of what you're saying.  Someone who is on the high end of a tier (Robinson, Barkley in tier 3, for example... Shaq, Durant in tier 2) is punished in this formula, so their contribution is not accurately portrayed.  However, again, it comes back to something for me, and you'll have to answer this question for me before I can proceed:

With only 10 usage points, how do you avoid the individual possession penalties?  I have not seen it as being possible in all of my efforts.  I never tried a 39 usage guy with a bunch of 13.6 ones before, but I think that'll be low.  Even your (guy that hasn't been drafted yet) effort that won 68 games + the ship had more than 10 usage points on it...

Uh oh...you done ****** her off.

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.