All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODL LXII Team Rosters & Commentary
3/20/2013 12:18 AM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/19/2013 7:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/19/2013 11:19:00 AM (view original):
He's probably right on the border between 1st/2nd. I would take Garnett over him. 06-07 Duncan is close, but bad FT shooting hurts him.
I think that Duncan and Garnett (not counting Garnett's 100% SF seasons) are basically equivalent in this league.  Also, McHale and Brand have seasons that are comparable to some Garnett seasons.
Fair enough. All would be solid picks at the bottom of the first round, IMO. If you can get efficient usage, rebounds, and defense in the same package without many negatives, it's a good pick.
3/20/2013 12:37 AM
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/20/2013 12:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ashamael on 3/19/2013 4:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/19/2013 11:19:00 AM (view original):
He's probably right on the border between 1st/2nd. I would take Garnett over him. 06-07 Duncan is close, but bad FT shooting hurts him.
I'll take 55% fg over 53% fg... screw ft%.
Can't just ignore FT%, even if most guys don't reach their RL totals. Difference between 81% ft and 63% ft over 300 FTA is 54 points, difference between 55% and 53% fg over 1200 FGA is only 48 points.
You assume way too many things here.  I've just ignored ft% for my entire tenure here, so I'll just say:  Yes, you can.
3/20/2013 6:26 AM
one of the sim paradoxes - guys will foul more but get to the line less
3/20/2013 11:15 AM
Posted by ashamael on 3/20/2013 12:37:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/20/2013 12:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ashamael on 3/19/2013 4:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/19/2013 11:19:00 AM (view original):
He's probably right on the border between 1st/2nd. I would take Garnett over him. 06-07 Duncan is close, but bad FT shooting hurts him.
I'll take 55% fg over 53% fg... screw ft%.
Can't just ignore FT%, even if most guys don't reach their RL totals. Difference between 81% ft and 63% ft over 300 FTA is 54 points, difference between 55% and 53% fg over 1200 FGA is only 48 points.
You assume way too many things here.  I've just ignored ft% for my entire tenure here, so I'll just say:  Yes, you can.
What am I assuming there? You saying that FT% is more likely to vary from RL totals than FG%? Probably true, given fewer of them will be shot, but it's not gonna be too far away from RL totals. You can consider FT less than you would in RL, but you can't just ignore them completely. If you do that you're not looking at the entire efficiency picture.
3/20/2013 11:25 AM
Players with a high fta/fga ratio in real life will shoot far less in the sim. TS% is used in the pricing formula, which means with some players ur paying for things u won't get.
3/20/2013 1:18 PM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 3/20/2013 11:25:00 AM (view original):
Players with a high fta/fga ratio in real life will shoot far less in the sim. TS% is used in the pricing formula, which means with some players ur paying for things u won't get.
I understand that, but we're not talking about guys with a high FTA/FGA ratio
3/20/2013 1:57 PM
2 am in china. goin' to bed. will update in the morning. happy hunting
3/20/2013 3:13 PM
Don't know if Antonio McDyess was a mistake or not but Skypilots taking Marques (aka Marcus) Johnson really threw me off.  Think it was a good move was looking for low TO's, rebounding and defense.  He fits the bill, but fouls are a little high and he has no threes
3/20/2013 3:43 PM
3 reasons why you can virtually ignore ft%:

1)  already been mentioned, but a big component of salaries is TS%.  Since nobody gets close to their RL fta, this means that guys with poor ft% are a better value.  The higher the fta, and the lower the ft%, the better the deal.  Shaq, for example, is such an amazing deal.  If WIS properly used efg% mixed with ft% factoring usage%, Shaq's top 5 or 6 seasons would all be well over $10m (his 93-94 season would be over $11m).  When they made this big change, if you'll remember, I argued against it for this very reason. 

2)  this also has been touched upon, but again, nobody gets their RL free throw numbers.  Players almost always shoot far more field goals than they did IRL, however.  So the bleeding, so to speak, is less than imagined and the benefits from the higher field goal percentage are higher as well.  Also, I don't look for high fta guys to get free points; I look for high fta guys to get my opponent into foul trouble - completely different story.  I don't care if they make them or not.

3)  There is a higher uncontrollable variance in free throw shooting.  There is nothing that I can do as a coach or GM to increase or decrease a player's free throw percentage (which, in my experience, tends to be all over the map in terms of consistency).  However, I can run up-tempo and draft a ton of ast% to increase fg%.

So with all of that in mind, I'll take the guy that gives me more bang for my buck that simultaneously gives me more on the floor with a more controllable variance.  You take those guys that make free throws... I'll take the Wilts, Shaqs, Howards and Duncans of the world.  Oh, and the Rodmans, Wallaces, etc., too...
3/20/2013 4:01 PM
One correction - guys with high FTA don't reach their RL free throw numbers, but guys with low FTA will often reach or exceed their numbers. The SIM just does a very poor job distributing FT attempts between high and low usage player.

But again, you can't just say you don't care at all if a guy makes a FT or not. You can minimize your consideration of ft% (for the reasons you just mentioned) but not ignore it entirely. Surely, if two (hypothetical) guys were completely equal in every category, but one had a 52.1% efg and 60% ft, and the other had 52.0% efg and 80% ft, you'd take the second, because he's going to score more efficiently even if both only take 150 FT or so.

3/20/2013 4:06 PM
In the scenario you outline, yes.  But that scenario just doesn't happen.  Never have I run into a situation where a guy is equal in all things I care about except free throw percentage.  Maybe one day it will.
3/20/2013 4:41 PM
Posted by felonius on 3/20/2013 6:26:00 AM (view original):
one of the sim paradoxes - guys will foul more but get to the line less
I don't think guys foul more in the SIM consistently. I have a pretty low-foul team in the Funk 52 right now, which you would expect to foul more than in RL if anything, and the guys are about evenly distributed in terms of being above/below their RL fouls.
3/20/2013 5:59 PM
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/20/2013 4:01:00 PM (view original):
One correction - guys with high FTA don't reach their RL free throw numbers, but guys with low FTA will often reach or exceed their numbers. The SIM just does a very poor job distributing FT attempts between high and low usage player.

But again, you can't just say you don't care at all if a guy makes a FT or not. You can minimize your consideration of ft% (for the reasons you just mentioned) but not ignore it entirely. Surely, if two (hypothetical) guys were completely equal in every category, but one had a 52.1% efg and 60% ft, and the other had 52.0% efg and 80% ft, you'd take the second, because he's going to score more efficiently even if both only take 150 FT or so.

I don't think it's the sim.  When a low foul defender faces a high FTA offensive player, something has to give.
3/20/2013 6:22 PM
12. felonius - Bill Russell, Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton,              

For kind of a bad first pick (due to not knowing the cap had changed), this team sure looks good!  I almost pulled the trigger on Glide in round 2, only to see you immediately take him.  Clyde gives you great rebounds for the 2, good defense, good assist% for a 2, decent fg%, decent number of 3s, low fouls... good everything.  He helps you in all 3 facets of the game.  Glove was a steal and is one of the guys I can't believe is still around.  While I'm not a big fan of his sim seasons, he was absolutely a monster pick for you.  You've got a great defensive foundation with 2 guys that haul in major minutes; if you make it to the dance, you can put russell & glove both at 48 mpg and be fine.  Glove gives you good boards and 3s... and with the assists already brought in by Russell & Drexler, he gives you enough of those.  I don't care for his fg% mixed with his tier 2 usage, but with the Russell pick early, you needed a guy to take a bunch of shots (and with the SG position already out of the mix for you, you couldn't add in one of those 'other' guys who really wouldn't have brought anything more to the table than Glove did anyway).  I like the turnaround and eagerly anticipate seeing what you do with your last few picks.


13. ashamael -
David Robinson, Marcus Camby, Steve Nash,     

Nash was the guy I wanted to pick in round 2 but held off on because I thought he'd still be here, and if wasn't, I'd get Porter, KJ or some other guy that hasn't yet been drafted.  It's fine if you think my defense will be hurt by taking Nash... The positive impact he brings on the shooting struggle far outweighs his defensive deficiency (do a quick search and see how many point guards are tier 3 usage or higher with 60% efg... you'll find a very short list).  He gives me a nice inside-outside with the Admiral, enough assists that I don't have to worry about that at all anymore, and brings my usage points up to 8.5, meaning I can go with many combinations in rounds 4 & 5 to flesh out my SL.  I liked my Nash-to-Malone combo better, but I'll take Nash-to-Admiral.
     

14. cmcafeeky -
Chris Paul, Kevin McHale, Tom Boerwinkle,     

I like bullwinkle in this sim... and like him here, too.  He gives you a nice mix of decent defense and great rebounding and... oh yeah, the 19% ast.  McHale loves this pick... between cp3 & bullwinkle, McHale is going to be lighting it UP!  Really dig what's going on here thus far... no weaknesses that I see.
 

15. skypilot -
Hakeem Olajuwon, Rajon Rondo, Marques Johnson,              

Johnson was a great pick.  He gives you good boards at the 3, or he gives you great offensive scoring at the 3 (depending on what season you use - I like 2 that do very different things).  I don't believe the pick is enough to save the squad, however.  I have two guys in mind that can, but I doubt you end up with either of them.

16. tadmand -
Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen, Bobby Jones,    

Well, it's clear now that you're not using the inefficient Garnett season that gives you a big rebound advantage at the 3 since you went and drafted the amazing Bobby Jones.  I just went from feeling really "meh" about this team to feeling really good about it.  Jones gives you some easy buckets and maintains the already great defense you had.  Now you can use one of the two actual good Garnett seasons, which helps your offense even more.  This team is in great shape going forward.
      

17. jhsukow -
Larry Bird, Deron Williams, Swen Nater, Shawn Kemp,    

This team just got scar(ier).  Kemp can guard Nater's man.  Both rebound a ton.  Depending on the Kemp season used, he can give you a lot of easy points (I personally am not a fan of 100 defense Kemp and am a fan of 56% fg Kemp).  Offense is well balanced between three guys... as I said, this team just got scary.
       

18. poppapomp -
Artis Gilmore, Anfernee Hardaway, Alex English,      

I don't care for English.  Shooting guards that don't shoot threes don't even exist to me when it comes to the sim.  He doesn't rebound enough to be a 3.  He's taking shots away from A-Train & Penny, too.  Don't like this pick... not even a little bit.

19. smokey57 -
Julius Erving, Bob Lanier, Terry Porter,        

Now this pick I don't like either... I freaking love it.  Porter is so underrated.  He's actually in my top 5 point guards (along with Nash - both of whom went in round 3).  Search efg% > 58, ast% > 25, 3pa48 > 5, usg% > 17.5 and you'll find only 2 names... Porter & Nash.  Porter plays better D while Nash brings a bit more O to the table.  Both have ODL rings on their fingers.  Not enough to save this team (not with the insistence of Dr. J playing SF).

3/20/2013 6:23 PM
I just wastched a team lose the finals due to exceptional bad FT% (~65%). Too many ~60FT% players. I think if your OK if you go +70FT%.
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