Playoffs look safe
Playing for 4 playoff spots or 3?
IMO the biggest question in the Central is how many playoff spots can the top-4 teams claim? All four are exactly 10-3 at home, meaning the winner of the division will be in a FAR better position than the rest come playoff time.
Badja: How does a team lose the possession and TO battles with the lowest dreb% in the division lead after 26 games? Well, a team efg of 59.31% has EVERYTHING to do with that. I’m not surprised by badja’s shooting as I noted when I updated my initial evals and dubbed this team a playoff contender. Currently this team enjoys a 2-game lead, but opponents efg is at an insane 56.98%. The next 12 games will be VERY interesting for badja, is his high efg due to the weak D of the division? Is his high efg against due to the high efg of the division or his own weak D? These questions should be answered in the next 12 as he will face teams with much lower efg’s and much stronger D. IMO I’d still have to slate badja as the 4th most likely team of the top-4 in the division to make the playoffs, but for now he enjoys the lead.
Sly: Has had some inconsistent runs and giving up 5.7 more points per game than scoring from the stripe has as I predicted been the serious issue with this team. Winning the TO battle, best dreb% in the division, 4.21% efg advantage, and 6.2ppg advantage. Sly is still the favorite, but his ride will be a lot bumpier than he originally thought it would.
Natenoy: FT advantage has appeared to normalize after a 16-5 start during this current 5-game losing streak. Tov% of 16.78 is exactly what happens to a team that uses 75 mpg of .5 usage, another 28 of 1.0 usage, has high tov% PG’s and tries to run uptempo. Too few RL possessions for this team to be running uptempo. Data also indicates that Vance was correct with his assertion that sub-40 D of Daugherty would not be covered up by 90D players as efg% against is higher than others in the division with much lower weighted averages on D. This team is stuck with the issues on D, but is switching to HC for at least the next 12 games in hopes that a significant TOV% reduction will return it near the top of the division. I’m still feeling my 30 home wins and a playoff spot with this squad, but if badja stays where he is, tar comes back, FT advantage drops any further and TOV% isn’t managed by going HC, then this team could miss the playoffs.
DH: Like my team TOV% has been a KILLER. Dreb% a little low but best oreb% in the division and aside from TO’s has an advantage in all remaining areas. This team is still solid and the best from Durant may still be to come, IMO DH will feast on the West over the next 12 and it would take a lot more bad luck than good for this team to miss the playoffs.
Kat: Solid rebounding advantage has this team as the best of the “toast” teams, but as I originally noted this is NOT a good division for Kat because of the horrible matchups. The next 12 games will give a good read on how good this team could have been had DH not screwed it by drafting it in the Central.
Banditone: I won’t be surprised if this team also comes out of the next 12 at no worse than 6-6, but in this division banditone’s lottery ticket for the next draft is very safely in hand at this point.