All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem
6/27/2013 8:25 PM
what's granger's efg? 52ish? for 30mpg?
6/27/2013 8:35 PM
Posted by felonius on 6/27/2013 8:25:00 PM (view original):
what's granger's efg? 52ish? for 30mpg?
Yep, 51.8%, but this season of Granger is on the short list of guys that ALWAYS gives you more in the sim than his advanced stats, ash and I talked about some of those guys last ODL, Jerry Lucas is at the top of the list.

The thing with Granger that is overlooked because of his 51.8% efg is the fact that his fga/min is actually HIGHER than Shaq's. This means that he gets to the line almost as much as he did in RL since the sim uses fga/m to decide when a FTA takes place. So I should get most if not all of his 460 RL FTA's at 87.8%, and when we hit the end of game in the sim guess who will be getting fouled on my team? Nope, not Shaq, since Granger has a higher fga/m HE will be the one at the line at 87.8% instead of Shaq at 52.4%, so Granger was a critical pick for me.
6/27/2013 8:41 PM
Posted by felonius on 6/27/2013 8:18:00 PM (view original):
and ps nate your trade to Krishna makes me wish we could install an ownership committee that could make rulings on trade validity
I traded my 3rd and an acquired 4th round pick for a 2nd and a 6th, the EXACT type of deal that happens almost every draft in these leagues, It's not my fault that 23 other guys let Deron fall to the 3rd or STAT fall to the 4th. 
6/27/2013 8:44 PM
Pretty shocked you have me so low nate. I guess your numbers are wrong.
6/27/2013 8:47 PM
Posted by natenoy on 6/27/2013 8:20:00 PM (view original):
Bol is 80% at SF, so he gives you 4.9-13.7-18.6 on the boards (not exactly a blank spot) with a block rate of 8%, so he should see 65-70 possessions and give you at least 5 blocks a game at SF. Does not shoot and I don't want him to with Shaq and Allen on this team.

Granger is 74D and will likely start for me at SG. Chandler is 90, Shaq is 80, all of my non-exclusive guys also play D. I'm leaning heavily towards the 50D Allen also.So Evans is my only horrible player on D and he rebounds better than anyone else in the sim.

My D is not elite and I never made any claims that is was, but I expect to see my big-3 putting up 70+ shots a game at a very nice efg%, and they all three have RL tov% under 12, so while I will see the individual usage penalty at times it won't hut me as much as teams with higher tov%'s from their usage guys that hit the penalty.
Here's where your calc fails you:

1.  Combined rebound percentage is an overall rebounding number which says your likelihood to get any rebound is about 9-10%.  Is that really an advantage over who most of these guys are drafting in this league?  These guys know the importance of rebounding, and for 25-26 MPG the rebounding advantage isn't great.

2.  Bol will now commit 20% more fouls and turnovers.  So now you will have a 20.5 TOV% at SF and instead of committing a foul every 8 minutes he will now commit one every 6.75 (approx).  Which means over the course of a game instead of committing 3.2 FPG he will commit 3.85 FPG, and this doesn't even start to figure players that he will matchup against that have large draw rates.

3.  Defense is now cut.  The advantages Bol gives is on D and you cut that.  Blk% works into the overall D, and not just the likelihood that Bol will block the guy he is guarding (although that is the most likely choice).  Bol may block a PG going to the hole, or a C going for a put back.  Now Bol is going to block just over 8% of attempts rather than 10%.

Congrats for further neutering a guy with only one ball.
6/27/2013 8:50 PM
98 had you in group 2  right up until I had to make the final cuts, something had to give and it turned out being your team. Have you #13 and sly #14, so you are both in position to compete and really make out if the divisions fall your way. Also I'm not too sure about my own team to be honest, adding a ton of fouls myself at the end and with only three guys that shoot I may live in the individual penalty all season, so ironically I may be the team you knock from the top-12.
6/27/2013 9:04 PM
Malone as always your posts are an entertaining read.

I''ll concede somewhat on point 1, hence the idea that I may need to keep both Evans and Bol on the court at the same time.

I'm not sure about the pf/rate, I've yet to see a guy have his pf rate go up because he is out of position, so you may have a point, but also IMO the draw rate for players at SF are generally lower than at PF/C, I'll be sure to shift Bol if I face a SF with a very high draw rate.

Tov% means NOTHING for Bol. With the other usage I have he will be lucky to see 4 touches in a game, so 20% to 25% means 1.0 to's instead of 0.8, absolutely zero impact on my squad.

Yes, D is cut, but 8% is still one of the top block rates in the entire sim, and Shaq chips in a not so shabby 4.4% himself, 

IMO Bol and his 1/2 of one nut still helps my team, like I said I have been looking at blk% and IMO it has an independent impact, owning Bol will help me test my theory.
6/27/2013 10:40 PM (edited)
Posted by natenoy on 6/27/2013 8:41:00 PM (view original):
Posted by felonius on 6/27/2013 8:18:00 PM (view original):
and ps nate your trade to Krishna makes me wish we could install an ownership committee that could make rulings on trade validity
I traded my 3rd and an acquired 4th round pick for a 2nd and a 6th, the EXACT type of deal that happens almost every draft in these leagues, It's not my fault that 23 other guys let Deron fall to the 3rd or STAT fall to the 4th. 
you got a partial season of something you could have addressed without the trade - he took you in the moment (in terms of value exchanged and available) and you set him up, good for him, too bad for all of us
6/27/2013 10:53 PM
oh sh!t....didnt even realize krishnaman went with the dwight/amare combo.....thats two drafts in a row now since i made the finals with that combo....looks like i started a trend here haha...tho i wonder how krish is going to fit it under a 47 mil cap....should be a weak bench...and again...no stevie nash to kick the offense into super gear(my team efg% was around 60 that year) so i doubt his offense will be as epic as mine was...but it could end up being the better team
6/28/2013 9:45 AM
didn't you do it in the 52 mil though, dh? or was that here?
6/28/2013 10:28 AM
RE: Blake Griffin.  I tried plugging Chris Andersen in for 20 mins at SF and my salary wasn't even close to round out the team.  1200 tos should give me back some possessions.  I drafted decent defense for the bench.  Hoping to win shootouts-
6/28/2013 11:31 AM
Posted by dh555 on 6/27/2013 10:53:00 PM (view original):
oh sh!t....didnt even realize krishnaman went with the dwight/amare combo.....thats two drafts in a row now since i made the finals with that combo....looks like i started a trend here haha...tho i wonder how krish is going to fit it under a 47 mil cap....should be a weak bench...and again...no stevie nash to kick the offense into super gear(my team efg% was around 60 that year) so i doubt his offense will be as epic as mine was...but it could end up being the better team
haha yeah i did it last year too, but i won't be starting both of them. i like to do a 12 to 13-point usage starting line up and then bring my heaviest usage guy (amare) off the bench so its unlikely i at any point dip under 12 usage points on the floor. 
6/28/2013 11:39 AM
er i should say i had amare off the bench last year too.. i didn't have howard
6/28/2013 1:52 PM
Posted by tarheel1991 on 6/28/2013 9:45:00 AM (view original):
didn't you do it in the 52 mil though, dh? or was that here?
yea...it was 52
6/28/2013 3:24 PM
it also means that for whatever time they share the floor he's slightly more likely to take a shot than Shaq is at about 8% less efg
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