Posted by mduncanhogs on 2/12/2015 10:25:00 AM (view original):
River City Rivalry game is tonight.  Somehow the odds makers have St. Mary's TX a 1 point favorite at Incarnate Word.  My money's on Incarnate Word.

We are still getting used to zone.

Posted by davefilby on 2/12/2015 7:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mduncanhogs on 2/12/2015 10:25:00 AM (view original):
River City Rivalry game is tonight.  Somehow the odds makers have St. Mary's TX a 1 point favorite at Incarnate Word.  My money's on Incarnate Word.

We are still getting used to zone.

GG mdh. You out shot us from the line and Balderas went 1 of 7. Your FG% = a loss for us.

Thanks dave.  GG to you as well.  I'm sure you will beat me if we play again in the CT.

A look at the top 5 teams on the projection report (I arbitrarily drew the line at five teams racing for the four #1 seeds):

Incarnate Word: After dropping three of the first seven games, the ship has been righted at IW. Not sure if we are better (met or covered 8 of last 9 point spreads), lucky (two OT wins), or both. Six of eight remaining games are against top 50 RPI teams, with three of those against top 15. The zone experiment is interesting, tinkering with lineups and tempos as the season progresses. We will settle in to something in the post-season but I hope the flexibility of the set (versus press) will be amplified during the NT. We have plenty of opportunities to trip up the rest of the way, but the same opportunities to improve if we suffer a setback.

Philadelphia: Perfect record, wins over Incarnate Word and Wisconsin Parkside, what more do you want out of this team? One game against a top 50 team (at Dominican) the rest of the way. Ten upperclassmen in their triangle/man attack, and five players that score in double digits. I think they have to be a strong favorite in the NT.

N Florida: Losses to Queens and Lander, but so many good wins (7!) versus top 50 teams. Three games (at Lander, at Kennesaw St, USC Upstate) remaining against top 50 teams. The entire starting lineup of this triangle/man attack is rated 700 or better. I have to think how the game (or games) against Lander will determine if N Florida secures a #1 seed.

Wisconsin, Parkside: The loss to undefeated Philly is all that separates Parkside from an undefeated record. Top 50 wins versus Queens and 4 other opponents make for an excellent resume. Home games against N Kentucky and Bellarmine present opportunities to further bolster the resume. Seven upperclassmen will no doubt play the defense we've all come to expect from emy1013 in the post-season.

U of DC: In a strange quirk, undefeated #1 U of DC is 5th overall of the projection report. Five victories in as many tries against top 50 opponents. Playing in a mostly Sim conference, there are no more top 50 games on the regular season schedule and one possible in the CT if he meets the other human coach in the S Atlantic. But make no mistake, this is a fearsome team. The motion/press attack sports a starting lineup with ridiculous athleticism and defense. I know I don't want to see them in my region.

Queens U (NC), CSU Los Angeles, Lander, & St Mary's are the next four and damn fine teams in their own right. Lander has a key game remaining against N Florida. St Mary's has eight games remaining against top 50 teams. CSU LA has a big contest remaining against Cal, SD. Queens has Limestone.

My mind is blown that U of DC could be a #2 seed. Who do you think will (and should) receive the #1 seeds?

The Top 25 hates Harding. After back-to-back wins of 141-61 and 104-53, we fall out of Top 25 poll. Yes, we beat a team 141-61. Harding currently averages 98.6 PPG. And we're 16-4, 3-3 against current Top 25. Don't know why the Top 25 hates us so. Running up the score?

Holy crap 141 pts without OT? That's incredible.

Should be a fun game tonight when #3 North Florida visits #4 Lander in Greenwood. Both teams are in the race for a 1 seed, like Dave said above.

Btw Dave - excellent writeup. Lot of great teams in D2 this season. But I might be using your post in mY pregame speech tonight!

Averaging 101 PPG. Playing Ouachita in conf finals tonight. I'm surprised this board isn't more active. The NT will be WIDE OPEN again.

I agree hacker. Here's my take on the brackets:

Midwest:
My Incarnate Word team is the #1 seed but has 6 losses on the year and was 3-0 in OT games. Talented but definitely vulnerable.
#2 seed Merrimack has won 20 straight and also owns a 12 point win over Lander. Their two losses are to top 10 RPI teams. Should go far.
#3 Queens NC is very good. Two of their four losses came versus rival Longwood, another versus Parkside. CVAC CT winners.
#4 N Florida had a couple of surprising losses in their final three games, otherwise would carry a higher seed coming out of the Peach.
Other scary teams (and there are a lot in the Midwest)
#5 Cal, San Diego has elite athleticism & defense and is 4-2 against top 40 rpi teams, but has 2 losses against non-NT teams.
Baffled (and angry) that Gannon is a #9 seed. Only 4-3 against top 40 rpi teams, but there is ridiculous talent here. 5 scorers in double-digits.
#12 Wayne St can lock you up on D. Lost 6 straight in non-con to NT-quality opponents. Good first round matchup against Cal, San Diego.

East:
#1 seed St Mary's has a good coach and good weapons and is battle-tested. But they do have 7 losses, so again talented but vulnerable.
#2 CSU, Los Angeles has 12 seniors & juniors, and its 3 losses are by a total of 4 points. Scary.
No one wants to see #3 Dominican. They have wins over Lander & Philadelphia so they can clearly play with anybody.
#4 Ohio Valley very quietly put together a really nice season. They rebound and can really shoot it from deep.
Others
#5 Mercyhurst shows no.....mercy on defense. Opponents shoot 40% from the floor.
#6 Hillsdale is lucky they are not in the Midwest, as all 4 of their losses were to teams mentioned in the Midwest preview.
#8 Longwood and #10 St Edwards each own a pair of victories (Queens NC & St Mary's respectively) against top-flight competition.

South:
#1 Philadelphia can fill it up with 4 players rated 99 or better in LP or PER. A loss to Dominican is all that blemishes their record.
#2 Wisconsin Parkside is good on both sides of the ball. They shoot better from three-point land than their opponents shoot from the floor.
Undefeated #3 U of DC beats opponents by 28.5 ppg. Just win baby.
#4 N Alabama is the most athletic team in D-II and only Lander is rated higher defensively. A pain to gameplan against. Will they score?
Others
#5 Limestone went 15-1 in CVAC play. That still means something.
#6 Harding scores over 100 ppg and scored 211 points on Jan 31. Those are rare stats.
#7 Bentley is an ATH & DEF team that's played a lower SOS. Tied with N Alabama for best ATH.
#9 Bowie St has a couple of wins over top 5 RPI teams.

West
#1 Lander has won 20 straight and has the highest DEF in D-II. George Bennett is going to get buckets. GL against them.
#2 Bellarmine is coached by legendary greenhawks. Enough said.
#3 W Florida had two of their five losses in OT, with 2 more by three each in the Heartland.
Two loss #4 Ouachita Baptist is talented on both sides of the ball and beat Harding twice.
Others
#5 Rockhurst had a breakout season. Can they carry it forward?
#8 Chaminade had one loss against the 233 SOS. Can they step it up against NT competition?
#10 Nyack has offensive talent. Can they outscore opponents?

Who did I miss? I think the NT will see a ton of upsets this season with one or two #5 seeds or lower making the Final Four. Who do you like?

wow. great breakdown. I would have added that Harding has wins over both 1-seeds Lander and St Mary's but can't beat Ouachita. ;)

i've played 7 games against #1 seeds. jeebus.

I like Longwood,. Their coach is a super cool guy. 

____________________________________________

Seriously, Lander is really really good. 

no denying that the South is this season's Group of Death.

I'm happy I'm not in the Midwest. Some tough teams there, including NFla who would've been a 2/3 except for a couple unexpected late season snafus.

Weirdest box score i've seen in a while lol. Glad I made it out of round 1

How's this for a 2nd round game. UofDC is 1st in team ratings at 678. Harding is 4th at 662. Harding is 1st in PPG at 100.6. UofDC is 4th at 86.9. Harding is 1st in margin of victory at 29.8. UofDC is 2nd at 28.1. Let's roll!