I'll take a crack at it and hopefully start something. Smack talk welcome.
Top 10 Analysis
#1 Longwood: OK call me a believer bbunch. The only loss was to uber-athletic N Alabama, who can beat anybody if they get some points. A four point win over #2 Incarnate Word and a three point road win at Armstrong Atlantic are the closest calls. Opponents better get your perimeter defense tightened up because Longwood drains three-balls at a 45% clip against the #7 SOS. Redshirting SR Brian Hamilton last season looks like a genius move now. I want another shot at you bbunch.
#2 Incarnate Word: A pair of road losses, four points at #1 Longwood and six points at #3 Valdosta St, are the blemishes on the record. We aren’t exactly blowing people out with 3 close wins (OT at Adams St, OT at W Florida, and two points versus Ohio Valley). The seniors are good and I don’t think you’ve seen our best yet. RS FR Harry Curl has improved 50 points already this season with a 60 WE, despite no starts and less than 17 minutes a game.
#3 Valdosta St: The lone loss is to long-time rival oldave at Johnson C Smith. Kelby likes to clamp down with the press and grind out offense. Like #2 IW, there have been close calls. They calmly sank two FTs with 0:04 remaining against Dominican for a one point win. A three-pointer with 0:03 left against St Edwards provided the final margin. I think they’ve overachieved so far (yes, I’m bitter). But the scary thing is this: they have ZERO seniors
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#4 CSU, San Bernadino: I believe in this one-loss team (five points at CSU, Chico) like I believe in a unicorn-riding Easter Bunny. 3 OT wins, a one point win, and a couple of two point wins against the #35 SOS. Simmy is doing a nice job with the 6 seniors and 3 juniors on this roster, but someone in the Cal CAA PLEASE take care of business against these guys.
#5 Merrimack: This team is going to be a tough one to figure at NT time. The two losses are by a total of 4 points to two top notch programs in Seattle and N Alabama. They’ve won their other 5 games against top 30 RPI teams. Two regular season games against Le Moyne are all that remain against NT-quality teams. Where will catdog’s squad be seeded? They are a #1 seed right now, but will the remaining schedule work against them and drag them lower? I think someone from the GLV passes them and grabs it like…..
#6 Wisconsin, Parkside: A loss to talented Missouri, St Louis is all that separates emy from an undefeated mark. There have been a pair of close road wins (at Wayne St (NE) and Mercyhurst) but they’ve been fairly dominant against the rest of their competition. Don’t be fooled by the two walk-ons, this team defends and rebounds as well as anybody. The SOS may work against them, but I’m saying the winner of the GLV tournament grabs a #1 seed.
#7 Erskine: Three OT games to start the year, resulted in a 1-2 record. But these losses to Merrimack and Dominican (plus a 3 point loss to Coker) are nothing to be embarrassed about. A road test/opportunity at Longwood looms. Starts one senior. Will be underseeded at NT time, but the volatile press style could result in an unlikely loss.
#8 W Virginia Wesleyan: Has only played 3 top 64 RPI teams on the season, going 2-1 against them. Those wins were a 10 point win versus Virginia Union and an 18 point victory at Concord. The loss was a 7 point game to start the season at Le Moyne. Will be favorites in every game they play the rest of the way and will have a gaudy record entering the NT. Not sure how I feel about scamdog’s team. I think a high-quality team will give them fits.
#9 St Mary’s (TX): Season-to-date, I think this is one of mduncanhogs better coaching jobs. The two losses are an 11 point loss to crosstown rival #2 Incarnate Word and an OT loss to dangerous N Alabama. The non-con was a little softer than usual, but wins are hard to come by in the Heartland so I understand. If MDH can sustain success through the rest of the conference schedule (7 games vs top 64 RPIs remaining) then you should fear them. There are only 5 upperclassmen on this team. JUCO soph Steve Emerson has improved 48 points in 14 minutes per game and I should have battled you harder for him.
#10 Bellarmine: I could stop this paragraph after typing “greenhawks” if I wanted. But how did you lose to a Sim by 11 to start the year?!?! An 11 point loss at #1 Longwood and 11 at home to #2 IW are the other losses. Regular season tilts against Missouri, St Louis and Wisconsin Parkside, plus the GLV tourney offer opportunities for Bellarmine to improve their NT status.