Big game in the Peach tonight as #8 Lander travels to Jacksonville to take on #3 NFla.

My next four games are insane: at home against Rockhurst, at Valdosta, at Incarnate, and Valdosta at my place. #9, #1, #3, #1  on the projection. If I come out with even just one win, I'll still be satisfied

Halfway through the GLV season, our goal of 6 NT teams is a longshot. 

Records and current projections

East
  1. Bellarmine          8-0, projected #11
   2. No. Kentucky    7-1                     #25
   3. Mo. St. Louis     4-3                     #88

West
 1.  Parkside            7-1                     #43
2. Mercyhurst          6-2                     #73
3. So. Indiana         4-4                     #65

11 Heartland teams are currently in line to make the NT, with the lowest of those 11 at 41 in the projection report. However, 4 of them still aren't to 14 wins:

West Florida (12-11) simply has to beat Lincoln (the only Heartland team out of the NT) and then has tough games against Drury and #7 St Mary's before the CT.

St Edwards (12-12) has a 2-day break before finishing with OPSU at home and #17 Rockhurst on the road before the CT.

N. Alabama (13-11) is at #1 Valdosta St before a 2-day break and then faces #3 Montevallo at home before the CT.

W. Alabama (12-10) has 4 games left before the CT and needs 2 wins: at #3 Montevallo, OPSU at home, #17 Rockhurst at home and at #1 Valdosta St.

Some of those teams will likely get to 14 wins, but it won't be easy for any of them.

Projection for the 6 Great Lake Valley's human coaches

SAFE
#16 Bellarmine
#26 No. Kentucky
#38 Parkside

BUBBLE
#66 Mercyhurst
#69 So. Indiana

HOPING FOR PIT
#94 Mo-St. Louis

Posted by troyooga on 7/14/2015 6:41:00 AM (view original):

Posted by troyooga on 7/2/2015 5:23:00 PM (view original):
N10 Conference Outlook:

Le Moyne starts the season as the strongest team returning 10 players from a 21-9 (2nd Round NT) team last year. They've added two JR bodies in support.

Merrimack will return 9 players from a 22-8 (1st Round NT) team last year. They have a rough 5 game stretch in one of the invitationals early in the schedule. By the time conference play starts they should be once again actively chasing Le Moyne down for a shot at the Southern Conference title and yet another 20+W season and NT selection.

S. Connecticut St. appears to continue it's trend of asking the question "Is this coach active or is not"? No post season here but there are a handful of decent players in it's top 5.

Bentley will have it's work cut out to return to a 3rd consecutive NT Elite 8 appearance after last years 32-1 season. By seasons end, we should see their characteristic high ATH and DEF minded team which can always hope to wriggle it's way deep into the NT. 

Bryant  returns 10 players from a 16-10 record a season ago. Their roster and schedule suggests a possible 20W  season as they look to make a return to the post season tournament scene. This early in the season it appears Bryant has a shot at the NT but will need to mostly run the table in non conference and pick off a game or two from the other 3 teams in conference play or conference tourney.

The predictions are: Bentley (21-5) North Div. champ, Le Moyne (22-4) South Div. champ, Merrimack (21-5), Bryant (20-6)  

CT champs: Le Moyne

NT births: Le Moyne, Bentley, Merrimack

PI births: Bryant
 

Just an update: 

So far the predictions appear to be spot on. The only prediction in jeopardy is Bryant's PI birth.

The nice surprise has been the sims in this league. Up to this point there have only been a couple of sub 200 RPI sims to deal with which allowing helping our active teams stay relevant in the NT picture.

3/4 of the 4 teams are going to have the exact record predicted with Le Moyne finishing one W ahead of the prediction. All 3 are safe into the NT and Bryant is bordering on a PI birth. Good luck everyone in your conf. tourneys.

Posted by getbedarded on 7/4/2015 11:22:00 AM (view original):
Alright alright here it is! The much anticipated Peach Belt review. 

General Outlook - The Peach should be down from last year in terms of top end depth, I would not expect a repeat of last year's NT. There are however several squads who return some great teams, so seeing at least 1 rep in the Final Four would not be surprising. Interestingly, the top 3 teams in D2 at ATH and DEF (individually) all reside in the Peach. And they're the same 3 teams. The strength of the conference has traditionally laid in the South, and, in terms of top-end talent, that looks to continue this season. 

In order of current standings (after game 4) - 

PB North 

Armstrong Atlantic - Old mainstay Kucewicz is back for another run, and he has a team to make some noise. Led by guards Alex Creager (last year's leading scorer) and Brian Cone (athletic, defensive, ball distributing PG), AASU should be very tough. They start 3 SR and 2 JR (one is a SR who will get a SR/5). A lot of athleticism and speed in the backcourt, they could get bullied by a team with athletic, rebounding bigs. They have one elite shooter and one elite post option, but not a lot of great scoring options past that. They are tough on D.

Clayton St - Our first of the ath/def monsters, Clayton should be poised to make some noise this year. Missing out on the NT last year after an upset in the first round of the PB tournament (putting them under .500 going into tournament play), they should be improved this year. Redshirt SR Michael Reid can get buckets on anyone, and Joseph Pero will have to come up big for them. Unfortunately, Pero tore his rotator cuff in game one. With their ATH/DEF, Clayton should be in every game. A threat to any team in the country. 

Francis Marion - Everybodies sleeper last year (NT title game appearance!?), coach skinnycat has this team rebuilding. They signed some very interesting players, a lot of talent a the guard spots. Kevin Foster will hit a lot of threes, Jack Smalls will defend like hell and take it to the rack, and Merrill Warren should create opportunities in the low post. Balanced team that plays tough zone D, even with the influx of freshmen. Due to inexperience, they won't repeat last  year's success but they should still be plenty tough. 

Columbus State - Coach blub has been snakebitten in recruiting recently, and it shows with this Columbus class. Typically one of the best teams in the North, Columbus has had some subpar classes, which, combined with Fran Mar and Clayton's rise will likely make this a tough season for the Cougars. 

Augusta St - After signing the #1 class in the country, the captain is hoping to make a tournament run. The class was a large mixture of JUCOs and transfers, so it will be interesting to see him make the pieces fit. 5 SR and 4 JR should make this team tough, but the IQ isn't where you would expect for such an upperclassman laden team. Will look to pound the ball inside on offense and draw fouls. Can be exposed rebounding the ball. Not sure if they will (or should) take a 3 pointer this season. 

Georgia College - The only press team in the Peach, coach pepsi has them poised to return to form. Strong ATH/DEF team, but with a lot of youngsters. The youth could bite Georgia, as the press generally requires a lot of depth. Should improve considerably over the course of the season due to youth though. I expect them to be positioned on the NT/PIT bubble by the end of the season. 

PB SOUTH


North Florida - Teamvip has his best NFla team yet, and they're poised to make a run. Top 3 (in D2) at ATH and DEF, NFla should dominate defensively. Returning everyone except their starting PF sounds terrifying, but they were also redshirting their highest rated player last season (Earl Bahena). Conveniently a PF, the return of Earl plus the maturation of everyone else should make NFla better than last year's squad. Clyde Anderson and Earl Bahena give teamvip two damn fine post options. On the perimeter they have two guys (Donald Taylor, Daniel Cleary) capable of making 3s to keep teams honest. I'd expect NFla to feed Donald Taylor (SG, 70 LP 91 PER) all year. Their weakspots are on the boards and playing from behind. Without great 3 pt threats, they will struggle to overcome deficits. With great ATH/DEF and great FT shooting at the guard spots, I don't expect NFla will blow any games with a late lead this year. 

Lander - One of last year's Final Four participants (losing to Fran Mar!), Lander is poised for another run. They lost their starting PF (who was 1st team AA as jr, 3rd team AA as sr), and that will be a large hole to fill. Hopefully the development of the other guys will make up for the loss of Ryan Baldwin. Lander is the last of the ATH/DEF monsters, ranking top-3 in all D2 at both. Should defend like hell, and have just enough scoring options to get buckets. Juan "on Juan" Sanchez is back for another go at the basket, and he should draw lots of fouls. The rest of the scoring is TBD, but with one elite shooter off the bench the should be average to above-average offensively. One thing holding Lander back this year are freshman promises, so expect them to underperform heading into the NT. An underseeded, but very dangerous Lander team is eagerly awaiting the NT this year. 

USC Upstate - Like Clayton, USC Upstate missed out on the NT last year due to winning percentage. They were also upset in the first round of the PB tourney. They responded by winning the PIT. With only two SR and a boatload of FR (5), this is a re-building year for Upstate. Still tough ATH/DEF (59/59), they certainly won't be a pushover. Besides Ryan David and Ralph Kang, I'm not sure anyone on the team knows the purpose of playing offense. They will take their lumps this year, but with some interesting recruits should be on the rise again soon. 

USC Aiken - Historical punching bag of the PB South, only 1 SR. Doubt they win a game in conference play. But hey, a great opportunity for a new coach...lots of postseason money, low expectations....eh? eh? No takers?? They won't matter this year. 

UNC Pembroke - Another one of the two openings in the Peach, coach Simmy could pull of an upset or two during conf play. With 4 SR and 3 JR, Pembroke might catch someone sleeping. This is the best available job in the Peach, far away from other PB schools. The only drawback is that it is right in the heart of CVAC country. 

Kennesaw St - The 3rd Final Four participant last year, Kennesaw is rebuilding with 4 new freshmen and a JR transfer from Ohio State (yuck) University. Tough ATH/DEF (61/60), they should play solid D and have a chance in every game. Doubtful there is any high volume, high efficiency scorers on the team this year, so they will have to defend. Starting 3 SR, 1 JR and 1 SO so they should stick with teams until the bench comes in. With zero perimeter threats, I expect coach Julius to pound the ball inside, draw fouls and make games ugly. Not going to be fun playing these guys. 

North - AASU, Clayton, Fran Mar, Georgia, Augusta, Columbus

South - NFla, Lander, Kennesaw, Upstate, Pembroke, Aiken

NT - AASU, Clayton, Fran Mar, NFla, Lander

PIT - Georgia, Kennesaw

POY - Juan "on Juan" Sanchez (Lander)
FOY- Bradley (Fran Mar)
DPOY - Anderson (NFla)
COY - Wildblue (Clayton)

The Peach is tracking ahead of schedule, with rebuilding Kennesaw on solid position to make the NT and Columbus St on the PIT bubble. The CT will determine quite a bit, but I expect the Peach to have 3-4 of the top 10 teams on the projection report (NFla, Armstrong Atlantic, Lander, Clayton St). Not the Heartland by any means...

Regular Season stats of conference only games for Capital Athletic Conference. I can't seem to get it formatted any better than this but here it is. 

Code key for some of the items. Rest should be self explanatory.

• OE = Offensive Efficiency (points per 100 possesions)
• DE = Defensive efficiency
• eFG% = effective field goal %
• OR% = offensive rebounding %
• DR% = defensive rebounding %
• FTR = Free throw rate

Offense

Team	OE		eFG%		TO%		OR%		DR%		AST Ratio		FTR		2P%		3P%
Mary Washington	118.1		56.3%		19.6%		39.0%		70.2%		16.5%		37.0%		52.4%		41.0%
Chestnut Hill	114.3		56.3%		18.2%		32.7%		68.3%		18.4%		43.5%		52.2%		45.4%
St. Mary's	110.2		55.1%		22.1%		36.5%		68.0%		18.3%		31.8%		48.9%		43.6%
Catholic	104.3		48.8%		19.5%		31.0%		64.2%		17.1%		60.4%		47.2%		40.2%
Hood	103.5		48.4%		19.6%		30.1%		64.7%		14.7%		64.9%		49.7%		27.2%
York	102.0		48.8%		23.5%		39.2%		71.5%		11.6%		35.9%		48.8%		32.6%
Gallaudet	100.9		48.0%		20.7%		33.0%		62.6%		14.3%		37.6%		49.2%		30.6%
Goucher	96.9		45.4%		22.7%		33.7%		66.1%		10.9%		51.4%		44.9%		33.9%
Marymount	94.9		46.1%		23.3%		31.1%		64.2%		11.3%		52.8%		45.3%		34.7%
Baptist Bible	91.5		48.4%		24.9%		28.3%		65.1%		15.2%		41.2%		50.5%		29.5%
Salisbury	90.6		47.1%		25.7%		33.6%		67.9%		12.4%		26.8%		46.7%		31.8%
Stevenson	87.3		43.2%		27.9%		33.3%		66.7%		8.1%		50.2%		44.9%		26.1%

Team	DE		eFG%		TO%		OR%		DR%		AST Ratio		FTR		2P%		3P%		Blk%		Stl%
Chestnut Hill	85.8		46.7%		29.7%		31.7%		67.3%		11.2%		36.3%		46.0%		32.1%		7.8%		14.6%
Hood	86.2		44.9%		30.1%		35.3%		69.9%		9.7%		42.2%		45.2%		29.2%		6.0%		14.1%
Mary Washington	88.9		48.5%		28.9%		29.8%		61.0%		11.3%		47.5%		48.0%		33.3%		12.4%		17.2%
York	96.1		51.0%		26.3%		28.5%		60.8%		13.4%		54.1%		48.6%		39.1%		11.2%		15.1%
Catholic	99.2		44.9%		19.3%		35.8%		69.0%		11.9%		33.0%		43.9%		31.4%		6.7%		10.7%
Goucher	99.5		45.1%		17.6%		33.9%		66.3%		14.3%		33.3%		44.5%		31.1%		10.5%		8.9%
St. Mary's	103.7		49.9%		19.4%		32.0%		63.5%		15.2%		32.8%		50.3%		32.9%		9.2%		10.1%
Gallaudet	106.1		49.5%		20.2%		37.4%		67.0%		14.8%		35.0%		46.4%		37.8%		8.1%		10.7%
Baptist Bible	106.6		52.0%		22.4%		34.9%		71.7%		14.0%		56.8%		50.9%		37.0%		5.9%		12.2%
Marymount	111.6		53.1%		20.1%		35.8%		68.9%		16.2%		56.3%		52.5%		36.5%		5.4%		10.9%
Stevenson	112.6		53.2%		16.6%		33.3%		66.7%		18.2%		41.5%		50.7%		39.2%		11.2%		8.5%
Salisbury	114.2		52.8%		16.4%		32.1%		66.4%		17.9%		60.0%		51.5%		37.9%		11.3%		8.9%

Longwood has an OK 40 RPI but we are 63 on the proj. report for some reason. Will need to win the CVAC conference tournament to get in.

This is the worst CVAC season in my 30 seasons of coaching here. We might only get 1 or 2 schools in the NT.

Posted by bbunch on 7/31/2015 6:31:00 PM (view original):
Longwood has an OK 40 RPI but we are 63 on the proj. report for some reason. Will need to win the CVAC conference tournament to get in.

This is the worst CVAC season in my 30 seasons of coaching here. We might only get 1 or 2 schools in the NT.

If we had spots bbunch, we'd take ya.

Heartland will be getting 8 in, 9 if St Edwards beats Valdosta St tonight. Could have been more, but the Alabamas lost 6 in a row to close the season. May have 3 #1 seeds from the Heartland West.

Incidentally, please don't sneak into the NT as a #16 seed bbunch....

Posted by davefilby on 7/31/2015 8:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bbunch on 7/31/2015 6:31:00 PM (view original):
Longwood has an OK 40 RPI but we are 63 on the proj. report for some reason. Will need to win the CVAC conference tournament to get in.

This is the worst CVAC season in my 30 seasons of coaching here. We might only get 1 or 2 schools in the NT.

If we had spots bbunch, we'd take ya.

Heartland will be getting 8 in, 9 if St Edwards beats Valdosta St tonight. Could have been more, but the Alabamas lost 6 in a row to close the season. May have 3 #1 seeds from the Heartland West.

Incidentally, please don't sneak into the NT as a #16 seed bbunch....

Hey! Get off bunch! I've been trying to recruit him to the Peach for a few seasons! Haha

Posted by davefilby on 7/31/2015 8:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bbunch on 7/31/2015 6:31:00 PM (view original):
Longwood has an OK 40 RPI but we are 63 on the proj. report for some reason. Will need to win the CVAC conference tournament to get in.

This is the worst CVAC season in my 30 seasons of coaching here. We might only get 1 or 2 schools in the NT.

If we had spots bbunch, we'd take ya.

Heartland will be getting 8 in, 9 if St Edwards beats Valdosta St tonight. Could have been more, but the Alabamas lost 6 in a row to close the season. May have 3 #1 seeds from the Heartland West.

Incidentally, please don't sneak into the NT as a #16 seed bbunch....

I doubt you're really frightened of my 6 freshmen and 4 sophs, dave :)

I'll at least stick around the CVAC for 2 more seasons to see this batch of recruits play as Srs. and Jrs. - if the CVAC continues to lose coaches, I'll could possibly head to the Heartland or Peach.....but if the CVAC picks back up, I'm not going anywhere for a while.

A lot of teams will sneak into the NT because the Heartland got shorted 3 or 4 squads (didn't go .500). Will be interesting to see the final four in list.

Posted by getbedarded on 8/1/2015 11:48:00 AM (view original):
A lot of teams will sneak into the NT because the Heartland got shorted 3 or 4 squads (didn't go .500). Will be interesting to see the final four in list.

Yeah it's interesting. And holy crap, my Longwood squad is in the same PIT bracket as iba legends Harding and st. Edwards. That has to be the most intense PIT bracket in memory.

North Central had a pretty good year considering there are only 4 humans right now and a number of the sims were awful. St. Cloud St. and Pitt-Johnstown shared the conference title with 15-1 records, and Pittsburgh got revenge on their lone conference loss with a win over St. Cloud St. for the tourney title. Pitt-Johnstown enters the NT as an 8 seed, St. Cloud St. gets an 11, and sim team South Dakota St. sneaks in as one of the last four bids with a 14 seed. Sim team Oakland City gets a surprise 8 seed in the PIT.