All Forums > How to see your vision using yatzr recruiting tool
10/30/2011 9:17 PM
WIS uses equations similar to GUESS (but much different coefficients) to rank recruits.  They rank the entire list of recruits, and then split them into the four pools for the four divisions.  The top 100 (or is it 250?) lists use the same equations.  The recruits that are in your vision will be ALL the recruits for your division's pool PLUS some low end recruits in the next division's pool.

I've been able to estimate these equations.  I can't get them exactly because I believe WIS factors in some numbers we can't see.  However, they get pretty dang close.  Close enough to effectively see what your vision is and how it compares to other teams.

To see what your vision is:
1) Use my recruiting tool
2) When you grab recruits, also grab out-of-vision recruits
3) Use the following equation for OL (this position has the most recruits, so it's the most effective for this)
ATH*.526 + SPD*.548 + DUR*.204 + WE*.406 + STA*.196 + STR*.788 + BLK*1.086 + TKL*.181 + HAN*.192 + GI*.243 + ELU*.218 + TEC*.846
4) Sort the OL for this column
5) Find the approximate line where the names turn from red to black (there may be some black above some red, but it should still be fairly clear where the line is).  That's where your vision currently is.  If you look after recruiting has started, you'll probably see schools with higher vision going after guys just above your red/black line.

This method is much better than checking for the number of recruits you see year after year.  With that method, you pretty much only know if your vision went up or down.  With this method, you can actually quantify it, and easily see how it compares to other schools.
10/31/2011 11:11 PM (edited)
I really thought this would get a bigger reaction, but I'm thinking I didn't explain it very well.  So I made a screenshot to detail what I'm talking about. (click on it for full size).

This was from my first year at st joseph's when I had really bad vision.  I checked my vision for all 11 seasons that I was there, and this was how it panned out:
(prior to season 57, they had 2, 4, and 7 wins)
Season 57: Vision of 252 (8 wins)
Season 58: Vision of 256 (10 wins)
Season 59: Vision of 258 (12 wins)
Season 60: Vision of 261 (14 wins)
Season 61: Vision of 264 (16 wins)
Season 62: Vision of 267 (17 wins)
Season 63: Vision of 269 (18 wins)
Season 64: Vision of 273 (15 wins)
Season 65: Vision of 270 (16 wins)
Season 66: Vision of 273 (18 wins)
Season 67: Vision of 272 (16 wins)

Seasons 64, 66, and 67, I'm pretty sure I had top vision.  At the very least, nobody in D2 was recruiting players outside my vision.

11/1/2011 8:05 AM
Thanks yatzr.

Personally, I don't know what we're supposed to do with this info.
11/1/2011 9:17 AM
Posted by bhouska on 11/1/2011 8:05:00 AM (view original):
Thanks yatzr.

Personally, I don't know what we're supposed to do with this info.
There's not a whole lot you can do with it other than get a better understanding of how vision works.  The inner workings of vision have been debated forever, but I think this stuff clears it up quite a bit.  It'd be nice to see a bunch of people compare their vision along with their school's recent history so we could get a better understanding of how wins (and/or CC and playoff wins) affect vision.

There is one small advantage the WIS equations can get you.  When you have really high vision, you can easily pick out which recruits require high vision, and therefore are seen by a very small number of schools.  Now, if any of those recruits are amazing, there'll probably be some competition.  But for any of them that are slightly less than amazing, they're basically free backups.
11/1/2011 10:29 AM
No fun, Yatzr---How can there be a debate when you've presented a method to obtain an actual answer?  That just creates work, and we don't want that!  Long live unencumbered supposition!
11/1/2011 1:04 PM
Posted by yatzr on 10/31/2011 11:11:00 PM (view original):
I really thought this would get a bigger reaction, but I'm thinking I didn't explain it very well.  So I made a screenshot to detail what I'm talking about. (click on it for full size).

This was from my first year at st joseph's when I had really bad vision.  I checked my vision for all 11 seasons that I was there, and this was how it panned out:
(prior to season 57, they had 2, 4, and 7 wins)
Season 57: Vision of 252 (8 wins)
Season 58: Vision of 256 (10 wins)
Season 59: Vision of 258 (12 wins)
Season 60: Vision of 261 (14 wins)
Season 61: Vision of 264 (16 wins)
Season 62: Vision of 267 (17 wins)
Season 63: Vision of 269 (18 wins)
Season 64: Vision of 273 (15 wins)
Season 65: Vision of 270 (16 wins)
Season 66: Vision of 273 (18 wins)
Season 67: Vision of 272 (16 wins)

Seasons 64, 66, and 67, I'm pretty sure I had top vision.  At the very least, nobody in D2 was recruiting players outside my vision.

How do these vision ratings apply across divisions?  Is a 272 vision going to be the highest in D-1, all the way down to D-3 or would the highest vision in D-3 be lower?

My D-3  team's vision is 208-209 coming off an 8 win season followed by 9 wins.  SIM AI coached the team 4 years prior to my arrival with 6, 9, 2, and 7 wins before I took the team and increased from 7 wins to 8.  Based upon what you have posted my vision is horrible and the team was more successful under the SIM than in the seasons you had before you took over.
11/1/2011 1:31 PM
not sure if this is what you meant yatzr but here goes.
in Leahy my Pittsburgh St team(this is my top overall vision team, though my Truman St team can see a 626 player but the drop off is larger)
Season 67 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #12
Season 68 18-1(8-1 conference) national champion #1
Season 69 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2
Season 70 17-1(9-0 conference) CC, final 4 berth #2
Season 71 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #14
Season 72 17-2(9-0 conference) CC, lost national championship #4
Season 73 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2

my vision has gone up every season since season 67(my first year there)
i don't measure vision quite the way you do though. i research the available recruits during the current cycle and take the top 5-10 overall ratings.
i then contrast those top 5-10 after the recruits arrive on campus and next seasons recruits have popped up.
if anyone falls out of the top 5-10 then i know my vision has gone down, if there are new players added then i know that it's gone up.
for instance last season i could see 6 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 596 and the top guy being 606.  this season i can see 10 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 600 even and the top guy being 610. two of which are considering a DIAA team(Appy St)
11/1/2011 2:09 PM
Posted by bllutarsky on 11/1/2011 1:04:00 PM (view original):
Posted by yatzr on 10/31/2011 11:11:00 PM (view original):
I really thought this would get a bigger reaction, but I'm thinking I didn't explain it very well.  So I made a screenshot to detail what I'm talking about. (click on it for full size).

This was from my first year at st joseph's when I had really bad vision.  I checked my vision for all 11 seasons that I was there, and this was how it panned out:
(prior to season 57, they had 2, 4, and 7 wins)
Season 57: Vision of 252 (8 wins)
Season 58: Vision of 256 (10 wins)
Season 59: Vision of 258 (12 wins)
Season 60: Vision of 261 (14 wins)
Season 61: Vision of 264 (16 wins)
Season 62: Vision of 267 (17 wins)
Season 63: Vision of 269 (18 wins)
Season 64: Vision of 273 (15 wins)
Season 65: Vision of 270 (16 wins)
Season 66: Vision of 273 (18 wins)
Season 67: Vision of 272 (16 wins)

Seasons 64, 66, and 67, I'm pretty sure I had top vision.  At the very least, nobody in D2 was recruiting players outside my vision.

How do these vision ratings apply across divisions?  Is a 272 vision going to be the highest in D-1, all the way down to D-3 or would the highest vision in D-3 be lower?

My D-3  team's vision is 208-209 coming off an 8 win season followed by 9 wins.  SIM AI coached the team 4 years prior to my arrival with 6, 9, 2, and 7 wins before I took the team and increased from 7 wins to 8.  Based upon what you have posted my vision is horrible and the team was more successful under the SIM than in the seasons you had before you took over.
D3 visions would be lower than D2 visions.  Every single recruit across all divisions get rated according to the equation, and then your team just gets to see all recruits up to some specific rating.  A better way to see how your vision compares is to watch it during recruiting to see who all is recruiting players outside of your vision, and what those players' "vision ratings" are.  That gives you a good idea of how high your vision can go.
11/1/2011 2:23 PM
Posted by mrfortune3 on 11/1/2011 1:31:00 PM (view original):
not sure if this is what you meant yatzr but here goes.
in Leahy my Pittsburgh St team(this is my top overall vision team, though my Truman St team can see a 626 player but the drop off is larger)
Season 67 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #12
Season 68 18-1(8-1 conference) national champion #1
Season 69 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2
Season 70 17-1(9-0 conference) CC, final 4 berth #2
Season 71 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #14
Season 72 17-2(9-0 conference) CC, lost national championship #4
Season 73 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2

my vision has gone up every season since season 67(my first year there)
i don't measure vision quite the way you do though. i research the available recruits during the current cycle and take the top 5-10 overall ratings.
i then contrast those top 5-10 after the recruits arrive on campus and next seasons recruits have popped up.
if anyone falls out of the top 5-10 then i know my vision has gone down, if there are new players added then i know that it's gone up.
for instance last season i could see 6 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 596 and the top guy being 606.  this season i can see 10 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 600 even and the top guy being 610. two of which are considering a DIAA team(Appy St)
This is what most everyone's been doing wrong in regards to checking their vision.  If you look at my screenshot, you'll see the top recruit on the screen has the highest "vision rating" of 264.64 and his total rating is only 504.  Lower on the screen, I can see a guy within my vision because his vision rating is only 247.22, but his total rating is 521.  The total rating has little correlation to the vision rating.  Also, the second custom column in my screenshot is the guess ratings from that time.  You can see that the guess ratings also have little correlation to the vision rating.  Higher vision does not guarantee better recruits.  In general, yes, they will be better, but there are many high vision rated recruits that we all would consider to be very poor recruits.  Without being able to detect those recruits, you will have a hard time quantifying your vision.

If you want to truly know what your vision is and how much it's gone up or down (rather than just knowing that it has gone up or down), this is the way to check it.  Note that you don't HAVE to use my tool to check it.  Just use a spreadsheet with all of the recruits within your vision, use the OL equation and see what your highest vision rated OL is.
11/1/2011 3:37 PM
Yatzr,

Do you have the equations worked out for the other positions too, or only for OL?
11/1/2011 4:30 PM

Yatzr- You know I think you are the man....But These equations don't mean anything.  You can tinker around with equations and flat out reverse some of them and get approximately the same red/blank points.  I can imagine you putting in equation after equation to  get that "point" to go from red to black without being "choppy".  Heck you can sort by total points and get a semi choppy red/black break point.

Anyway I refuse to believe that speed accounts for double the of the Game Instinct.

BTW, I would be willing to bet that there is an equation out there that would allow us to scroll down and see that red go immediately to black. We just havn't discovered it yet.

11/1/2011 7:33 PM
Posted by hughesjr on 11/1/2011 3:37:00 PM (view original):
Yatzr,

Do you have the equations worked out for the other positions too, or only for OL?
I have a few others.  It's not too difficult to get them, but I've been lazy and they're generally not useful.  If I'm bored later, I might generate some for each position.
11/1/2011 7:43 PM
Posted by tigerpark135 on 11/1/2011 4:30:00 PM (view original):

Yatzr- You know I think you are the man....But These equations don't mean anything.  You can tinker around with equations and flat out reverse some of them and get approximately the same red/blank points.  I can imagine you putting in equation after equation to  get that "point" to go from red to black without being "choppy".  Heck you can sort by total points and get a semi choppy red/black break point.

Anyway I refuse to believe that speed accounts for double the of the Game Instinct.

BTW, I would be willing to bet that there is an equation out there that would allow us to scroll down and see that red go immediately to black. We just havn't discovered it yet.

I would be extremely surprised if you're able to get an equation that gets the "red/black" line as clear as this by just tinkering.  I didn't do anything like try out equations over and over to find what worked best.  I made a program to run a genetic algorithm to find the equation that most accurately predicts the way WIS ranks recruits.  I've run it dozens of times and it always spits out an equation very similar to the one I posted.  I posted about the genetic algorithm awhile back here.  I'm not saying that these equations are a good metric of how good the recruit would be.  They are most definitely not.  I have no idea why WIS valued speed like that in OL.  What I do know, is that they've been using the same equations since I first started doing the genetic algorithm thing which was probably close to two years ago.

So again, these equations aren't good for anything other than knowing how WIS ranks recruits.  Do not use them to try to figure out which recruits are actually best, because they were never updated when the engine was updated.

Also, I too believe there is an equation out there that would allow us to scroll down and see that red go immediately to black (although, my equation does that on occasion already :) ).  However, I strongly believe that equation factors in numbers about recruits that we don't get to see (such as potential or formation IQ or other hidden attributes that aren't used anymore).  I've already tried to factor GPA into the equations, and that didn't do anything.
11/1/2011 10:33 PM
oh thank goodness. I was getting a little freaked when I saw some of the values.
11/1/2011 10:42 PM
You know (Yatzr), I'd bet that when we are looking at the vision column sorted and then look over at our "core" Column and seeing some of those out of order (in accordance to the core column vs the vision column) and then even some severely out of order that perhaps this could be a possible way to see "tapped out" or "skys the limit" depending on what we are seeing and where we are seeing it.

Some times it could behoove one to use creative thinking in accordance with mathematical thinking.   Then again, it could simply mean nothing at all.  I am in recruiting right now and will check a few in the morning.
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