Prior to the season roll, my Colorado D3 squad could see 86.6% of the 8914 available D3 recruits.

Here were my prior 3 season results:

Year 47:     13-3  ;  CC  ; 1 playoff win
Year 46:     15-2  ;  CC  ; 2 playoff wins
Year 45:     13-2  ;  CC  : 0 playoff wins

Total of 41 wins in the past 3 seasons.  Conventional knowledge thought to be that vision maxes out at 45 wins total over 3 years (weighted to the most recent season), and perhaps a prestige boost from various things such as CC's, school history success, and how deep you go in playoffs.

In Year 48 (year just finished) I won the NC, adding this year and dropping Year 45 from the 3 year window.

Year 48:   18-1  ;  CC  ;  NC (5 playoff wins)

So a 3 year total of 46 wins (over the 45 win threshold) and one would expect a significant boost to prestige.  I realize the prestige boost may just make it easier to sign recruits and not necessarily increase vision, though one might suspect that it would have some positive effect on vision.

I have been using Yatzr's recruiting tool for a while so I have honed my process in running vision screens before and after the roll to monitor the increase or decrease in vision from adding on the most current season and dropping of the last.

After adding my NC season of Year 48 my recruit vision increased by a total of 20 recruits.

I now can see 86.8% of the total recruits pool (7739 of 8914) up from 7719 prior to the roll.  What a huge disappointment making what would seem like a major increase in vision as I have gone from 41 wins to 46 AND adding an NC.

Makes one wonder if what we think we know about vision is accurate, or is vision behaving as it should?

Norbert?

Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

Are changes to vision more dramatic at levels higher than D3?

I dunno, vision is all relative. What matters isn't the absolute number you can see but how many you can see relative to other DIII teams. I wouldn't worry about it too much as those 20 new recruits are probably pretty good and only seen by a handful of other schools. I don't use Yatzr's tools but it seems likely that he's using educated guessing on formulas rather than the same formulas the game uses, so there's a margin of error.

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:22:00 PM (view original):
I dunno, vision is all relative. What matters isn't the absolute number you can see but how many you can see relative to other DIII teams. I wouldn't worry about it too much as those 20 new recruits are probably pretty good and only seen by a handful of other schools. I don't use Yatzr's tools but it seems likely that he's using educated guessing on formulas rather than the same formulas the game uses, so there's a margin of error.

In this situation what Yatzr's tool allows is for me to know exactly who was available before the roll and after the roll.  No formula's or estimates relevant.

In terms of the type of incremental player available.  I would say that for about every extra 20-30 players becoming visible (at D3 level), 1 of them is desirable over what could be seen before -- meaning that the total attribute scores may be higher, but not in the critical catagories which would make them a desired recruit.  So it is important to up your vision by as many players as possible.

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

Are changes to vision more dramatic at levels higher than D3?

I have no idea.  I recruit who I see and don't worry about the rest.

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

Are changes to vision more dramatic at levels higher than D3?

I have no idea.  I recruit who I see and don't worry about the rest.

 

OK.  So you don't know and you don't care?  Thanks for dropping in on the post with your value added.  Carry on.

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:22:00 PM (view original):
I dunno, vision is all relative. What matters isn't the absolute number you can see but how many you can see relative to other DIII teams. I wouldn't worry about it too much as those 20 new recruits are probably pretty good and only seen by a handful of other schools. I don't use Yatzr's tools but it seems likely that he's using educated guessing on formulas rather than the same formulas the game uses, so there's a margin of error.

In this situation what Yatzr's tool allows is for me to know exactly who was available before the roll and after the roll.  No formula's or estimates relevant.

In terms of the type of incremental player available.  I would say that for about every extra 20-30 players becoming visible (at D3 level), 1 of them is desirable over what could be seen before -- meaning that the total attribute scores may be higher, but not in the critical catagories which would make them a desired recruit.  So it is important to up your vision by as many players as possible.

Ok, well you are still working under the assumption I think that it is possible for a DIII team to see 100% of the players that are listed as DIII for a higher level team. I'm not sure that we can assume that. I don't think that if you win 3 straight NCs you are going to see a couple hundred more guys, it looks like incremental returns for you at this point. Sorry vision wasn't all you hoped and prayed it would be.

What I think Reid (slid64er) means is, the 20 recruits, 50 recruits, even 100 recruits that might change in vision do not change the grand scheme of things as much as you would think they would at DIII.  Most of the best recruits at the lower levels... and I mean "best" based on which recruits can be developed the best by the time they are upperclassmen based on their cores, WE, and potential are going to be found in everybody's vision more than likely.  If you add 20 more recruits you might get 20 more guys that are a higher overall but based on the total number of recruits anyways, there is still a pretty good chance that none of them break the top 200 by the time they are Seniors.

A D1AA Team with high vision compared to low vision can see some significant differences in vision that a low tier vision school can not even develop the players to the starting points of a high tier division school.

DIII is all about developing your talent, so vision is not as big of a deal.  Especially when comparing "good vision" to "great? " vision.

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

Are changes to vision more dramatic at levels higher than D3?

I have no idea.  I recruit who I see and don't worry about the rest.

 

OK.  So you don't know and you don't care?  Thanks for dropping in on the post with your value added.  Carry on.

Him - 33 Titles

You - 1

Maybe you should listen to the man.

Just a thought.

Carry on

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:22:00 PM (view original):
I dunno, vision is all relative. What matters isn't the absolute number you can see but how many you can see relative to other DIII teams. I wouldn't worry about it too much as those 20 new recruits are probably pretty good and only seen by a handful of other schools. I don't use Yatzr's tools but it seems likely that he's using educated guessing on formulas rather than the same formulas the game uses, so there's a margin of error.

In this situation what Yatzr's tool allows is for me to know exactly who was available before the roll and after the roll.  No formula's or estimates relevant.

In terms of the type of incremental player available.  I would say that for about every extra 20-30 players becoming visible (at D3 level), 1 of them is desirable over what could be seen before -- meaning that the total attribute scores may be higher, but not in the critical catagories which would make them a desired recruit.  So it is important to up your vision by as many players as possible.

Ok, well you are still working under the assumption I think that it is possible for a DIII team to see 100% of the players that are listed as DIII for a higher level team. I'm not sure that we can assume that. I don't think that if you win 3 straight NCs you are going to see a couple hundred more guys, it looks like incremental returns for you at this point. Sorry vision wasn't all you hoped and prayed it would be.

Never had any assumption that 100% of players would be visible, and i never stated that -- don't know where you assumed that from.  I am strictly speaking about statistical significance.

For those who have regularly discussed vision -- common knowledge was thought to be an upper threshold of 45 wins in a 3 year window.
A move from 41 to 46 wins is a statistical significance, in fact, thinking in terms of standard deviations at the upper end of the curve of players available it is a huge move that should correlate to much than an increase in 0.2% of players available.

I guess i should have left a disclaimer.  If you are not interested in discussing how vision may or may not operate and have little to no knowledge how it may or may not work, feel to ignore this post and go back to your own business.

Posted by flexmagnum on 4/16/2012 5:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

Are changes to vision more dramatic at levels higher than D3?

I have no idea.  I recruit who I see and don't worry about the rest.

 

OK.  So you don't know and you don't care?  Thanks for dropping in on the post with your value added.  Carry on.

Him - 33 Titles

You - 1

Maybe you should listen to the man.

Just a thought.

Carry on

Why does it always come down to that? 
There are some who are actually interested in this topic, not just interested in board bashing.
Anyways, I'm happy with my results so far.  Quite happy.

Slider = 33
Me = 1 (just started playing)
You = 0 (700 games played)

If you have no interest in this topic just move along please rather than throw stones.

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by agers on 4/16/2012 5:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jtwhiz on 4/16/2012 5:22:00 PM (view original):
I dunno, vision is all relative. What matters isn't the absolute number you can see but how many you can see relative to other DIII teams. I wouldn't worry about it too much as those 20 new recruits are probably pretty good and only seen by a handful of other schools. I don't use Yatzr's tools but it seems likely that he's using educated guessing on formulas rather than the same formulas the game uses, so there's a margin of error.

In this situation what Yatzr's tool allows is for me to know exactly who was available before the roll and after the roll.  No formula's or estimates relevant.

In terms of the type of incremental player available.  I would say that for about every extra 20-30 players becoming visible (at D3 level), 1 of them is desirable over what could be seen before -- meaning that the total attribute scores may be higher, but not in the critical catagories which would make them a desired recruit.  So it is important to up your vision by as many players as possible.

Ok, well you are still working under the assumption I think that it is possible for a DIII team to see 100% of the players that are listed as DIII for a higher level team. I'm not sure that we can assume that. I don't think that if you win 3 straight NCs you are going to see a couple hundred more guys, it looks like incremental returns for you at this point. Sorry vision wasn't all you hoped and prayed it would be.

Never had any assumption that 100% of players would be visible, and i never stated that -- don't know where you assumed that from.  I am strictly speaking about statistical significance.

For those who have regularly discussed vision -- common knowledge was thought to be an upper threshold of 45 wins in a 3 year window.
A move from 41 to 46 wins is a statistical significance, in fact, thinking in terms of standard deviations at the upper end of the curve of players available it is a huge move that should correlate to much than an increase in 0.2% of players available.

I guess i should have left a disclaimer.  If you are not interested in discussing how vision may or may not operate and have little to no knowledge how it may or may not work, feel to ignore this post and go back to your own business.

Reread what you just wrote.  It only emphasizes my point that vision is overrated.

You may also want to read up on statistical significance, I don't think you're applying it correctly here.

Does anyone who uses Yatzr's tools and tracks player pool availability get above 87% player pool visibility?

If so, or anyone is interested in talking about this topic offline away from the stone throwers please sitemail me instead so we don't bother those who are not interested and we can keep the knowledge to ourselves rather than try to share info in a public forum which was my original intent.

Posted by slid64er on 4/16/2012 5:21:00 PM (view original):
Vision is the most overrated aspect of the lower levels.

 

I disagree with this.  High vision makes it so that you almost never have to deal with sims when recruiting players.  I never had an easier time recruiting than when I had very high vision in D2 (I think it was like 49 wins in 3 seasons).