All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Gridiron Dynasty > what is the trump card in recruiting battle?
6/24/2013 3:40 PM

Does an elite program always trump perhaps a lesser but still good program & promised start/playing time?

if both example schools were "very local" for the recruit (say under 50 miles) & have money to spend.... would he still choose to be a backup for say Florida or start right away for USF - is it worth USF pumping a buncha CV's on him & all these promises or is it futile?

 

6/24/2013 7:27 PM
A BCS team will have to shell out an extra 15%+/- recruiting efforts to knock off an elite team.
6/24/2013 8:10 PM
Thes isn't as much logic in it as you're hoping. It's 100% an effort thing. The team that puts the most recruiting effort will get the recruit, no matter what.

Now, some recruiting effort is worth more than others. For example:
Team A (Elite) within 50 miles puts in 15 CV's and scholarship offer.
Team B (BCS) within 50 miles puts in 15 CV's and scholarship offer.

The elite will win the recruit every time.
Same goes for BCS vs non-BCS, non-BCS vs DIAA, DIAA vs DII, and DII vs DIII.

6/24/2013 8:13 PM
To further answer your question, the "promised start" and "promised playing time" are also just ways to add recruiting "effort" to the recuit for your team. I'm sure another coach can come on here and tell you exactly what each is worth compared to a CV, but the SimAI recruit doesn't actually weigh starting for team B vs sitting the bench for team A.
6/24/2013 8:39 PM
thanks guys.....the situation would basically be Florida vs a South Florida or an Ohio State vs Ohio situation.....where neither of the big schools are (theoretically) offering freshman start & 50% PT but the "underdog" school is & lets say they are CV'ing or otherwise spending to the same level...is there any idea on what, as bhouska put as the recruiting effort of the starts/pt worth?
6/24/2013 8:52 PM (edited)
im sure there has to be some formula, i mean it is a computer program after all right , lol......guess im just wondering if its actually worth it as one of those step below conferences like C-USA or MAC to try & steal one from SEC/Big10.... what it would take on the underdogs part...do i keep throwin recruiting money at him or is just going to be all for naught & a sim recruit for my 40 grand effort
6/25/2013 7:17 PM
If its mid-major vs elite, I'd say save your money.
6/28/2013 4:20 PM
IMO, everything else being equal, an Elite has a 20% head-start over a non-Elite from a BCS conference.  Over a team from a non-BCS conference it's easily over 30%.

When Brad mentioned effort he's 100% right but to put forth an example I'll speak in dollar terms and assume the dollars were spent the exact same way.  For UCLA to out-recruit USC he would have to outspend USC 121k to 100k (by the way this would never happen in Camp...lol). 
6/29/2013 12:02 PM
well that sux....lol, guess as soon as i see a big time school after my guy at Ball State i will just back out quietly
6/29/2013 3:36 PM
Posted by jmcgarry on 6/29/2013 12:02:00 PM (view original):
well that sux....lol, guess as soon as i see a big time school after my guy at Ball State i will just back out quietly
I've had some decent battles from stubborn mid-majors attmy elites before. It will be very very tough to beat a "big time school" but you might once in a while if you play your cards right
6/29/2013 6:09 PM
Posted by jmcgarry on 6/29/2013 12:02:00 PM (view original):
well that sux....lol, guess as soon as i see a big time school after my guy at Ball State i will just back out quietly
If you don't have as many battles to back out of, you will have more money when you do need to battle.
7/2/2013 2:01 PM
Surprised no one mentioned prestige, where in Bryant I saw Oklahoma State vs. Texas a many times and OSU would win a lot of those battles due to there bowl record and record.   I think a BCS school over time can level the playing field with an Elite but not really sure how many seasons it takes.
7/5/2013 5:08 PM

Someone may have done some real research on this that I don't know about, but my experience has been that elites do not have a big advantage over other BCS schools.  I have posted this before.  I was at Louisville and beat OHST out for an STL DB.  If I remember correctly, we both spent over 100K, it was for sure over 80k each..  The recruit was of approximately equal distance from both of us.  The recruit was in Cincinatti area which is about 100 miles from OHST and from Louisville.  The other coach posted how much he had spent and it was under $500 less than I had spent. I moved ahead in that battle by spending one campus visit and then luckily signed the guy on the overnight cycle.  I had offered the recruit a sophmore start and no playing time.  I have no way of knowing what OHST had offered from a playing time/start standpoint so there are some unknown variables there.  The point is, I had to have been barely ahead of him based on the fact I moved ahead by spending only one campus visit.  The dollar amounts were within $500 assuming OHST was honest in his post about how much he had spent.  He is a well respected coach and I have no reason to believe he made it up.

I believe the elite advantage is overblown and a lot of it is in our heads.  Many coaches back off battles with elites giving them more money for the battles they do have.  That makes them win a disproportionate percentage of the time which fuels the theory that they have a large advantage.

I do think they have a small advantage but I believe it is negligible.  I had just won a BCS Bowl with Louisville so I acknowledge that I might have been categorized in the system as some kind of an "almost elite" status, meaning that I may have had a smaller disadvantage than someone who, say, had gone 9-5 the season before and played in a third or fourth tier bowl.

Anyway, I conclude by saying that they do have an advantage.  However, that advantage comes from us believing we can't beat them so many of us choose not to battle.  That allows them to win some battles on the cheap which gives them more money for the battles they do have.  I think it is more of a psychological advantage than a real advantage.

Even if they have real advantage, I have zero doubt that we increase that advantage with our belief that we can't beat them.

7/5/2013 5:46 PM
Posted by jsmetz48 on 7/5/2013 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Someone may have done some real research on this that I don't know about, but my experience has been that elites do not have a big advantage over other BCS schools.  I have posted this before.  I was at Louisville and beat OHST out for an STL DB.  If I remember correctly, we both spent over 100K, it was for sure over 80k each..  The recruit was of approximately equal distance from both of us.  The recruit was in Cincinatti area which is about 100 miles from OHST and from Louisville.  The other coach posted how much he had spent and it was under $500 less than I had spent. I moved ahead in that battle by spending one campus visit and then luckily signed the guy on the overnight cycle.  I had offered the recruit a sophmore start and no playing time.  I have no way of knowing what OHST had offered from a playing time/start standpoint so there are some unknown variables there.  The point is, I had to have been barely ahead of him based on the fact I moved ahead by spending only one campus visit.  The dollar amounts were within $500 assuming OHST was honest in his post about how much he had spent.  He is a well respected coach and I have no reason to believe he made it up.

I believe the elite advantage is overblown and a lot of it is in our heads.  Many coaches back off battles with elites giving them more money for the battles they do have.  That makes them win a disproportionate percentage of the time which fuels the theory that they have a large advantage.

I do think they have a small advantage but I believe it is negligible.  I had just won a BCS Bowl with Louisville so I acknowledge that I might have been categorized in the system as some kind of an "almost elite" status, meaning that I may have had a smaller disadvantage than someone who, say, had gone 9-5 the season before and played in a third or fourth tier bowl.

Anyway, I conclude by saying that they do have an advantage.  However, that advantage comes from us believing we can't beat them so many of us choose not to battle.  That allows them to win some battles on the cheap which gives them more money for the battles they do have.  I think it is more of a psychological advantage than a real advantage.

Even if they have real advantage, I have zero doubt that we increase that advantage with our belief that we can't beat them.

Years ago I did a "study" and am confident the 20% base advantage I mentioned above is very close to being accurate.  It is obviously possible to win a battle vs an Elite.   But if you feel differently please come to the Pac-12 in Camp ;)
7/6/2013 7:29 PM
Posted by bullfrog333 on 7/5/2013 5:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jsmetz48 on 7/5/2013 5:08:00 PM (view original):

Someone may have done some real research on this that I don't know about, but my experience has been that elites do not have a big advantage over other BCS schools.  I have posted this before.  I was at Louisville and beat OHST out for an STL DB.  If I remember correctly, we both spent over 100K, it was for sure over 80k each..  The recruit was of approximately equal distance from both of us.  The recruit was in Cincinatti area which is about 100 miles from OHST and from Louisville.  The other coach posted how much he had spent and it was under $500 less than I had spent. I moved ahead in that battle by spending one campus visit and then luckily signed the guy on the overnight cycle.  I had offered the recruit a sophmore start and no playing time.  I have no way of knowing what OHST had offered from a playing time/start standpoint so there are some unknown variables there.  The point is, I had to have been barely ahead of him based on the fact I moved ahead by spending only one campus visit.  The dollar amounts were within $500 assuming OHST was honest in his post about how much he had spent.  He is a well respected coach and I have no reason to believe he made it up.

I believe the elite advantage is overblown and a lot of it is in our heads.  Many coaches back off battles with elites giving them more money for the battles they do have.  That makes them win a disproportionate percentage of the time which fuels the theory that they have a large advantage.

I do think they have a small advantage but I believe it is negligible.  I had just won a BCS Bowl with Louisville so I acknowledge that I might have been categorized in the system as some kind of an "almost elite" status, meaning that I may have had a smaller disadvantage than someone who, say, had gone 9-5 the season before and played in a third or fourth tier bowl.

Anyway, I conclude by saying that they do have an advantage.  However, that advantage comes from us believing we can't beat them so many of us choose not to battle.  That allows them to win some battles on the cheap which gives them more money for the battles they do have.  I think it is more of a psychological advantage than a real advantage.

Even if they have real advantage, I have zero doubt that we increase that advantage with our belief that we can't beat them.

Years ago I did a "study" and am confident the 20% base advantage I mentioned above is very close to being accurate.  It is obviously possible to win a battle vs an Elite.   But if you feel differently please come to the Pac-12 in Camp ;)
I imagine bullfrog is right on, that it's about 20%, so to throw an arbitrary number value on it, it's as if BCS teams get a starting point 100, Elites get a starting point of 120.

My understanding though is that prestige is a flexible value. A BCS team like jsmetz's Louisville team can climb up to 120 with the right success, but can also drop back down. Teams can even drop lower than the resting point if they are horrible. With USC, I went up against a brand new coach at Arizona, which SimAI had at the bottom of the barrel (ranked 80+). I don't remember the numbers, but he spent WAAAAY more than I did (like $100k vs $35k?) and didn't even show up as being considered despite being at a distance advantage.

jsmetz, I'd be very interested to know if the Louisville/Ohio State battle was in Season 52 or if it was 53? I think that could tell alot.
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