How big of difference in Average v Good Potential? Topic

Looking DIII player all with WE in the 43-50 range. How big of difference is there in Good and Average potential?

And how late into the game can you still find undecided guys with good potential with strong core numbers? It seems like it mad rush to get guys as fast as you can.

Do more player show up? In hoops a lot of the time its a waiting game. And its important to save a few spots and money to the end.

Thanks
2/9/2014 9:46 PM
In DIII Hoops I can do my full recruiting on the last day and put build a tournament team. Can that be done in football?
2/9/2014 9:50 PM
There aren't any drop downs or new players in the football game, which is why there is more emphasis on filling the majority of your class on signing day. You can always find guys with high potential late, but strong cores and high potential will be much more rare, especially when it comes to linemen, QB's, RB's, and WR's. As recruiting draws to a close, the ability to recruit long distance becomes easier and less expensive, so in theory you can recruit the entire country towards the end.

As for average vs high potential, the difference can be relatively small or very large, depending on the player's WE. Avg with very high WE can look a lot like high potential with middling WE, especially in D3. The problem is that the recruiting pool isn't evenly distributed when it comes to certain positions vs others. For example, most QB recruits are pretty terrible, making their potential and work ethic critically important. They need to be grown in order to be good. Meanwhile, you will occasionally find linemen whose cores are high enough that even average potential will be more than enough to make them worthwhile. 
2/10/2014 7:52 PM
If WE is equal, Good Potential is much better than Average Potential.

There are no drop-downs.  But depending on your vision, good players can be found after signings.

2/10/2014 9:27 PM
Posted by bhouska on 2/10/2014 9:27:00 PM (view original):
If WE is equal, Good Potential is much better than Average Potential.

There are no drop-downs.  But depending on your vision, good players can be found after signings.

Especially when you factor in all 4/5 years.
2/11/2014 7:39 AM
bhouska / tigerpark,

can you quantify the "good potential is much better than average potential" , "especially when you factor in all 4/5 years"?  What does that mean in terms of numbers on a per attribute basis? Assume all other factors equal.

2/11/2014 10:47 PM
I'm not a calculator. Lol. Jk.

Honestly I have no idea. I coach by the eyeball method.

You wanna find out for yourself, recruit one of each and study their improvement over the 4 years.
2/12/2014 9:44 AM
Work ethic is a huge factor here.

In round numbers, assuming average (~40) WE, I have found the difference in growth to be approximately 1 point per season of role rating/GUESS/etc. Over 4 seasons, on a top-level D3 team, it's the difference between a star and a starter or between a starter and a role player.

Of course, if WE is higher, or the player starts early and drives up WE, that difference will expand even further.

2/12/2014 11:52 AM
Which is better - WE 50 with ave potential or WE 39 with good potential (with equal Guess ratings of course)? At D3, I've always thought that the WE50 would be the best recruit.
2/12/2014 2:30 PM
Posted by moreron on 2/12/2014 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Which is better - WE 50 with ave potential or WE 39 with good potential (with equal Guess ratings of course)? At D3, I've always thought that the WE50 would be the best recruit.
I think there are great coaches who will disagree on this.

Personally, I think higher potential trumps 10 points of WE. Especially given the fact that you can impact WE.
2/12/2014 2:51 PM
Posted by helgi on 2/12/2014 11:52:00 AM (view original):
Work ethic is a huge factor here.

In round numbers, assuming average (~40) WE, I have found the difference in growth to be approximately 1 point per season of role rating/GUESS/etc. Over 4 seasons, on a top-level D3 team, it's the difference between a star and a starter or between a starter and a role player.

Of course, if WE is higher, or the player starts early and drives up WE, that difference will expand even further.

Where are you getting these numbers from. I am getting guys from anywhere from 2.0-5.0 points per season in GUESS with contributing factors such as WE and playing time. After my initial class graduates, I plan on releasing a report on the improvements of different potentials per attribute per position.
2/12/2014 3:22 PM
Posted by chalvorson on 2/11/2014 10:47:00 PM (view original):
bhouska / tigerpark,

can you quantify the "good potential is much better than average potential" , "especially when you factor in all 4/5 years"?  What does that mean in terms of numbers on a per attribute basis? Assume all other factors equal.

Thats exactly what i have done and am currently doing. I dont see that dramatic of a diff between avg and good potential. As a matter of fact, the findings point to the fact that in coming Fr talent is far more important than WE and potential.

Sorry, i meant to respond to bhuskas post
2/12/2014 3:24 PM
Posted by zsap on 2/12/2014 3:22:00 PM (view original):
Posted by helgi on 2/12/2014 11:52:00 AM (view original):
Work ethic is a huge factor here.

In round numbers, assuming average (~40) WE, I have found the difference in growth to be approximately 1 point per season of role rating/GUESS/etc. Over 4 seasons, on a top-level D3 team, it's the difference between a star and a starter or between a starter and a role player.

Of course, if WE is higher, or the player starts early and drives up WE, that difference will expand even further.

Where are you getting these numbers from. I am getting guys from anywhere from 2.0-5.0 points per season in GUESS with contributing factors such as WE and playing time. After my initial class graduates, I plan on releasing a report on the improvements of different potentials per attribute per position.
The ~1 point in, for example, GUESS ratings I reference is the delta between a guy with above average potential and a guy with average potential, not the actual growth. Assuming, of course, the same WE for each player.
2/12/2014 4:17 PM
Posted by chalvorson on 2/12/2014 3:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by chalvorson on 2/11/2014 10:47:00 PM (view original):
bhouska / tigerpark,

can you quantify the "good potential is much better than average potential" , "especially when you factor in all 4/5 years"?  What does that mean in terms of numbers on a per attribute basis? Assume all other factors equal.

Thats exactly what i have done and am currently doing. I dont see that dramatic of a diff between avg and good potential. As a matter of fact, the findings point to the fact that in coming Fr talent is far more important than WE and potential.

Sorry, i meant to respond to bhuskas post
When you say incoming talent is "far more important than WE and potential," can you spell out more precisely what you mean?
2/12/2014 4:19 PM
I think he's saying that he would take the most talented player regardless of WE or Potential....to which I whole-heartedly disagree.

2/12/2014 5:37 PM
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