I was thinking, if you have a guy with a patience rating 90 or higher, or a guy who is older that you know for a fact you won't want after his first long term contract, is it worth offering him long term after his first Arb to keep his salary down?
my thought on this is back before I knew better, I offered:
https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=4589091
A long term deal really early in his career. May not have been the smartest move but I kept a guy who may make the hall of fame under $7 million a year.
Now one in another league I have Arb'ed this guy twice:
https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=6749264
and it looks like I'll be offering him closer to $9 million a season. Maybe I'm biased because the first guy has the years to back it up but I feel like Davis is the better pitcher at a better price.