Signing Long-term before Arbitration Topic

So I have this absolute stud of a pitcher on one of my teams. He's in his second year of arbitration asking for $6.7M. He's only 26 years old, has won the Cy Young three times and I'm worried that if I go to arb with him twice more I might risk losing him to Free Agency right in the middle of my teams peak. So the question is should I just sign him now for the $8m/season he's asking for long term now, wait another season sign him before arb then for a higher price, or completely wait it out and get all the cheap years out of him while I still can.

I've heard patience has some effect on these sorts of things:
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Jumbo Polanco




6/20/2013 11:31 AM
You can get a Cy Young pitcher through his age-31 season for $8M a year, or save some money and have to match someone else's $20M/year offer 2 seasons down the road. What possible argument could there be for not signing him now? Sign him now, and with his Health/Makeup hope he wants to re-up with you after the deal you offer him today expires. Try to save money on bench players and middle relievers, not staff aces. Patience has an effect, but not nearly enough to take any chance that he'll change his tune to wanting to test the market.
6/20/2013 12:00 PM
Agreed, lock him up now for as long as you can.


6/20/2013 12:22 PM

Arb him this year, sign him long term next year before arbitration.

6/20/2013 12:30 PM
i always thought the only way you could lose a guy come his third arb was if you beat him the previous 2 arbs. as long as you didn't do that, you should be able to pay his elevated rate for this season and then lock him up next.
6/20/2013 1:29 PM
He is in his 4th ML year (2nd Arb year) -- pay him the $6.7M this year, and next year sign him long term
6/20/2013 1:37 PM
Just offer him what he wants for long term, but extend that over 5 seasons even if he isn't asking for 5 seasons and call it good.

This a classically mismanaged player IMO though it looks like it might have been the owner before you.  He wasted a season in the AA when he was already a boaderline all-star.
6/20/2013 2:37 PM
Arb twice, offer 5 seasons after that.   He's 26.  He'll hold his value.
6/20/2013 2:40 PM
Arb twice, sign whatever long term contract he asks for next season. With 72 patience, he is yours for as long as you want him if you keep renewing his contracts before they expire entering the offseason.
6/20/2013 3:10 PM
There's no risk that I'm aware of by arbing twice.
6/20/2013 11:31 PM
So is there not a chance that he could want less years long term next season by arbing him this season and looking long term the next?
6/21/2013 12:35 AM
There's no such thing as a player wanting fewer years in this game to my knowledge. I've even signed a free agent scrap heap guy that wanted 3.5mil for 1yr to a 3.5mil x 5yrs deal. They may ask for one thing, but they always accept 5 yr deals so far as I know.
6/21/2013 2:49 AM
Just to clarify, if you beat him in arbitration twice and will he still resign with you for the long term? Or does the arb twice sign to long term deal only work if you offer his demands in arb? 
1/17/2014 10:08 AM
I don't think it's a matter of beating a player in arb, it's a matter of taking him to arb three times, where you risk him not wanting to resign long-term.

To the best of my knowledge, there is no "memory" for players winning/losing in previous arbs.
1/17/2014 11:01 AM
Posted by boogerlips on 6/21/2013 2:50:00 AM (view original):
There's no such thing as a player wanting fewer years in this game to my knowledge. I've even signed a free agent scrap heap guy that wanted 3.5mil for 1yr to a 3.5mil x 5yrs deal. They may ask for one thing, but they always accept 5 yr deals so far as I know.
Older players may reduce their LT demands after rollover.

I've seen many times instances where (for example) a player might want 4 seasons for "X" dollars before rollover, and only 3 seasons for "y" dollars after rollover (where y < x).
1/17/2014 11:04 AM
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