Allen Pastornicky This guy is up for his 2nd arb. I usually arb a guy twice before signing him LT. But this year his arb price of $7.6M, is the same as his LT demand($7.6/3yrs). He's a pretty good player and I'm concerned that his LT demands will rise sharply after another good season. So, would you arb him another year or sign him LT now?

If you want to keep him for all of his productive seasons, arb him.     If not, he may file for FA at 30. 

He's got 80 patience, so he'll probably resign with you at the end of his contract.

If you're OK with "probably", sign him to the three year deal.    Then give him a 4-5 year deal after that.    You'll control him until he starts his inevitable decline.

1) He will be a type A when his contract ends, barring a major injury.  My experience is that, regardless of patience, type As rarely re-sign. 
2) His demands will go up a million or so next season, probably.

I'd arb him this season and sign him for 5 seasons for whatever he demands next season-- my guess is $8.8M or so.  If you want to save the million or so, then sign him for $7.6M x 5 now.  I would not sign him to the 3-year deal. 

There's some risk to this strategy-- if I'm wrong and he will re-sign with you, but he demands 5 seasons when he's entering his age 31 season, you probably won't want to sign him for that whole length-- but (a) I'd rather take that risk to gain control of him for one extra season and (b) with a 93 makeup you'd probably be OK backloading the 5th season with a mutual option and controlling him through the age of 34.

I don't know why he hit 81 homers over two years, he isn't THAT good.........but he's a bonking, GG-type 3B.  Sign him LT now.  Why would you wait?  You gain nothing.  

Posted by moethedog on 10/26/2013 12:35:00 AM (view original):
I don't know why he hit 81 homers over two years, he isn't THAT good.........but he's a bonking, GG-type 3B.  Sign him LT now.  Why would you wait?  You gain nothing.  

You gain a season of control in his prime.  That's something of value.

Posted by moethedog on 10/26/2013 12:35:00 AM (view original):
I don't know why he hit 81 homers over two years, he isn't THAT good.........but he's a bonking, GG-type 3B.  Sign him LT now.  Why would you wait?  You gain nothing.  

Oh I don't know. Maybe it's the 87 Power rating.

dedelman, I've had several type A guys sign w/o testing the FA market (though you do need to do it during the last year of their contract, can't wait until roll over as I once discovered.)

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1808060 resigned twice w/o testing the market, until we messed up and didn't have enough cash to do it in season, he tested the market the following year and cost us a pretty penny.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1805259 resigned with us 3 times

in the world we share:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3413188 says he'll return

as does

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3605818

All 4 of those guys were or are certain Type A players.  I don't know the exact formula either, but my guess is that guy will "probably" resign when his contract is up.  With that said, I wouldn't take any risks, I'd arbitrate him this year, give him what he wants, then sign him to a 5 year deal next year.  After that 5 years, if he's willing to resign, you can decide if you want to keep him or not.  His power & fielding should remain at all star levels thru his age 30 season, so there is little risk to doing that.  If you can resign him, then I'd just give him the length of the deal he wants.  With his makeup, he should be good into his mid 30s.

You can always sign him to a longer contract at the same yearly rate.  That can get you the extra year, if that's what you're after.

Hell, sign him to 5 years with a MO if you want... whatever.

My point is that you're not beholden to his 3-year demand.  You can give him longer.