What are the odds that a player who is "may sign if the deal is right; considering going back for senior season" will reject the first offer?

I think I can recall some of these guys accepting the first offer before, but I'm not certain. I am trying to get a compensatory draft pick next season, and I don't think I have enough money to make an offer to a "probably won't sign" guy.

I can't give you odds, but Id say there's a good chance he accepts the first offer.