http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=7138966

I am showing him as an 80 overall to start. 

1) 22 yo internationals don't improve much, if at all.
2) Right now, he's a better than average ML starting 3B. 
3) You can control a player for up to 11 seasons less 20 games if you play your cards right.
4) Position players tend to start losing power and range in their early 30s, sometimes earlier, and by 34ish often start losing skill ratings as well.
5) It is my experience that players with low-ish makeup (his is 48) decline earlier and harder.
6) Your team has been terrible for two seasons running.

My best guess, without a thorough audit of your organization, is that he should go to AAA for the first 21 HBD days of the season, and then be promoted to the majors.  You'll control him through his age 32 season, and his makeup suggests that you might not want to control him longer than that.  If you think you are a contender this season, seriously consider starting him in the majors.

How the hell did he go for only $15.8M?

The team won 57 games. His bat is 82-54-75-67-68 with 87 SPD and 69 BR. You're logically assuming an early decline. He's at worst the 4th-best ML hitter in the franchise. ML HC is a 90, next-best is AA (73). AAA would be a bad call (54 HC). We seem to know that IFA don't develop much, but whatever growth he has will be maximized in the majors. One of your best hitters is barely below the defensive floor for a SS. The 88 FI just might bring him up to a passable SS; if not, he'd be a an avg-to-plus defender at any spot. The only "benefit" to holding him back would be control of a season you might not want. If his growth stalls well before arb, he might be the rare player for whom the best move is to sign LT when he first hits arb so you have him through age 29 instead of 30,

Why would you want to hold him out of 13% of your season? There's no advantage to having him in the minors until the day before the first regular-season game.

Posted by joshkvt on 7/27/2015 2:41:00 PM (view original):
The team won 57 games. His bat is 82-54-75-67-68 with 87 SPD and 69 BR. You're logically assuming an early decline. He's at worst the 4th-best ML hitter in the franchise. ML HC is a 90, next-best is AA (73). AAA would be a bad call (54 HC). We seem to know that IFA don't develop much, but whatever growth he has will be maximized in the majors. One of your best hitters is barely below the defensive floor for a SS. The 88 FI just might bring him up to a passable SS; if not, he'd be a an avg-to-plus defender at any spot. The only "benefit" to holding him back would be control of a season you might not want. If his growth stalls well before arb, he might be the rare player for whom the best move is to sign LT when he first hits arb so you have him through age 29 instead of 30,

Why would you want to hold him out of 13% of your season? There's no advantage to having him in the minors until the day before the first regular-season game.

Because, based on everything you just wrote, it seems likely that the only "benefit" of starting him in the majors will be the difference between 70 and 69 wins.  It seems more likely to me that you will want that age 32 season than that you will want an extra win or two this season; he seems likely to be a legit starting COF at that time.

You're right about AA vs. AAA; I didn't audit the coaches.  And certainly, if you think you have even a 10% chance at 85 wins, start him in the majors.  But not many teams, even in HBD, jump from 57 to 85 wins, and even fewer if they put $20M in prospect.

How the hell did he go for only $15.8M?

Another IFA went for $14.4M the same day. That would have drawn away some bidders. There were only two more 7-figure IFA after those two signed, and there were only 6 other IFA who went for more than Noesi. Either people went home holding bags of money or there weren't a lot of teams spending big on IFA. That late in the season, waiting for something better than Noesi wouldn't make much sense. A lot more good IFA are going to cost under $20M with the removal of currents and tell-tale initial demands.

If you go into the season looking for ways to win, Noesi in AA for 20 games doesn't do it. If you go in looking to maximize Noesi's development — which is what I assume OP meant by "What level should he start at" — Noesi in AA for games also doesn't do it. What is the downside to maximizing development and making your ML team better (other than trying to lose)?

Some believe young players shouldn't be rushed to the bigs, but a 22-yo isn't that young. And the $10M total on coaches limits options.

Posted by joshkvt on 7/27/2015 3:15:00 PM (view original):
If you go into the season looking for ways to win, Noesi in AA for 20 games doesn't do it. If you go in looking to maximize Noesi's development — which is what I assume OP meant by "What level should he start at" — Noesi in AA for games also doesn't do it. What is the downside to maximizing development and making your ML team better (other than trying to lose)?

Some believe young players shouldn't be rushed to the bigs, but a 22-yo isn't that young. And the $10M total on coaches limits options.

If you're thinking ahead, and not just about this season, your benefits are:
1) Control of him as a reasonable COF in his age 32 season
2) About $6M of cap room in his age 26 season (the season when he's a first year arb player if you hold him back).

Now, he'll probably be fairly priced and replaceable in the FA market as an age 32 COF.  But the development difference is also trivial; half a cycle with a slightly worse HC.  And on average, a player like this will be worth slightly less than one win above replacement in 20 games.

The real choice is between a win or so this season and $6M four seasons from now.  If you're a team that reasonably expects to win between 75-100 games, that should be an easy choice (start him in the majors).  But if you expect to win fewer than 75 games, that choice is not completely trivial.

Lots of guys can't stand the thought that keeping this guy in the minors might cost them the one game they needed to make the playoffs.  And you don't remember this decision 4 seasons from now when you can't afford a top FA pitcher because you are paying this guy $8M instead of $2M; but it was this decision that got you there.

I'm not saying it's right to hold him back, just that it's not obvious not to.

People who hold players back, I despise the practice but catch myself doing it from time to time, have to decide what their goal is, the best way to accomplish it and, finally, what are their opponents doing.  I held Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Dorssys Prieto back because my division is terrible.   With my 14 game lead as we approach the A/S break, it was the right thing to do.   If I felt I'd have been in a dogfight, he starts in the bigs and I worry about season 40-42 when they get here.

The "hold 'em back 20 games" is likely the most misused strategy in HBD. 

There's more than a slight difference in the coaches. In the 3 worlds I just checked, 90 is 3rd, 8th and 8th best in the world; 73 ranges from 71st-77th best. If S32 is that important, drop him to AAA before spring training for 21 days a couple seasons down the road, when he won't have any growth at all left (and anyway hopefully have a AAA HC higher than 54). 22-yo IFA don't grow a lot but they can grow, and he only needs 2-3 points across the board to be a great player. 73 to 90 is almost a 25% increase.

I keep players back at times. But not an upgrade offensively and defensively who needs every bit of the minimal growth he's going to get, and that big a coaching difference.

The only two correct choices here are:
a) hold him in minors (AA in this instance) for the first 25 cycles and then call him up to majors
b) hold in in minors for the entire current season, plus the first 25 cycles of next season also

a very distant c) is to use him on opening day this season

Under no circumstances is there an option d) where you would purposely hold a guy back just to use him on opening day the next season. Once service time cutoff passes, the rest of the season is a "free season" towards arb, so if you hold him until opening day next season then you just wasted those free 130 games for no compensation

you know nothing about game theory. Keep wasting those free games player after player, season after season. If you weren't so damn annoying I'd invite you into all of my leagues because you're easy money

Anyway, to explain to those who are reading and not you because you've proven to be too stupid and hardheaded to understand anything, worrying about season 11 for a specific player(you have 10 seasons of control without the "hold back") isn't always the best strategy regardless of what some think.    Essentially, you could be giving up 2-3 wins over the first 20 games(not 25) that you might need.   10 of those are against division opponents.  You're doing this to gain an extra season of control.    In all likelihood, that season is a declining season.   My guess is 90% of the owners who think this is the only way to play have never seen 11 seasons in one world let alone 11 seasons from one player.  You could be throwing away a playoff appearance for a season you'll never see.   And that's dumb.

You save some payroll in Seasons 4, 5 and 6 by waiting the 20 games.  Again, may or may not be worth it, depending on the situation.