"Probably won't sign. He has his heart set on going to college."

Is this pretty much the 100% guarantee that he is not coming to town?
I am selecting #1 overall, and there is one prospect who is head and shoulders better than the rest. But, he probably won't sign. He has his heart set on going to college.

I am going to draft him anyway, and if he doesn't sign, I'll take the #2 overall pick next season.
But, should I even get my hopes up? Is there any chance that he will take a contract from me with a sick bonus?
Thanks in advance for sharing your thoughts...
Chris

Yes, there's a chance he will sign. I'm not sure exactly what the odds are. Maybe something like a 25% chance?

"A sick bonus" would do nothing to help your chances of signing him. There's no reason to do more than meet the player's demands. If more money would get him to sign, he'll tell you that when he's ready.

you have a better chance if you keep offering him his requested demands after he declines the offer.

Posted by sche0707 on 8/7/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):
you have a better chance if you keep offering him his requested demands after he declines the offer.

You'll need to keep the email in your HBD inbox in order to get to the negotiation page for the prospect, because once you get the red X on the draft results page, you won't be able to get to the negotiation page from there anymore.

I still have the email from a kid I'd like to get signed. The email says- "Free agent negotiations RE: V Combs".

If you click the first part of the email, it takes you to the body of the email. If you click his name, it takes you to his player card. I can't find the portion that takes you to the negotiations page.

What am I missing?

Double click on this icon proceeding "Free Agent Negotiations" for your player: 

That did it. Thanks!

I just had a player in our draft two weeks ago the said he would not sign, he was headed to college. Initially he asked for $6.5MM and then said he would not sign was headed off to college. I upped my offer to $6.6MM and a few days later, he signed. So it is possible. I also agree with sche0707, keep offering him after he declines. You can offer the original amount or slightly up your offer if you want.

This is all really good information everyone!!
Thanks for sharing ;-)

I had a guy I drafted #3 overall, great pitcher, unlikely to sign, so he said.  I offered, waited a week he turned us down.  I offered again, waited about 5 days, he turned us down, offered a 3rd time, waited about 3 days, he turned us down, offered a 4th time, waited about a week and he agreed to sign for a signing bonus around $11.2 mil.  Since he was number 3, I'm thinking the top overall pick in a similar situation would ask for $12 mil, so budget appropriately.  Anyways, the point being, if you have enough time, and he's willing to be reoffered (I think if they have an agent they will accept more offers, while if their mother represents them, your ability to negotiate will get shut down after the first attempt) you can always sign a guy.  May take awhile, but it can be done.

A few seasons ago I drafted an "Undecided" as my top pick.  Offered his demand, long wait, finally he declined.  I saved the mail.  Decided I really wanted the player, not the comp pick, so I bumped my offer up and submitted again.  Another long wait.  He declined a second time.

Now I had nothing to lose so I threw the rest of my prospect money at him, and after another long wait, he accepted.  I really didn't think it would happen.

Speaking of the amateur draft - I'm a newbie and I have ~$11M of my budget for prospects (I had it set at $12M in budgeting but then signed an international prospect for just under $1M).  With that amount available, should I use the conservative setting on my early picks?  If not, how would you have your settings if that was your budget?  If it matters, my first five picks are 18, 91, 123, 155, and 187.  (I didn't get any compensation picks for lost free agents., but apparently a lot of other people did!)

If you don't have any "may sign" or "probably won't sign guys," and everyone signs for slot money, you'll usually need about $2 million to sign all the picks in round 2-25.the. Look at the slot value for your first round pick and any supplemental picks. You can find this number by looking at the "draft history" report from the previous year's draft (under the world office menu/ reports). It looks like slot value for pick 18 is about $2.5 million.

Since you don't seem to have any supplemental picks, I'd expect to spend about $4.5 million on the draft if I were you. If you go after any questionable sign guys in the first round, tack on a couple million more. One thing to look at: unless you have your draft settings at conservative, you'll probably end up with a few late round picks asking for a ton of money. Don't waste $8 million on your 12th round pick. He's never worth it.

Posted by sche0707 on 8/7/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):
you have a better chance if you keep offering him his requested demands after he declines the offer.

Thanks for this info. Saved my draft. My suplamental pick was a 'probably won't sign' so I offered him his demand of $8 mill. He turned it down so I offered it to him again and he took it. Thank god. It looks like with the new 'fuzzy' projections my 9th overall pick was a bust.