All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Gridiron Dynasty Beta > Rushing results test - inside vs outside
4/16/2013 10:55 AM
As I'm prone to do, I ran some testing on rushing results, comparing inside to outside, and comparing facing a balanced defense vs an all rush defense. The test parameters were as follows:

- 50 games run against myself (so 100 game test size)
- Offense is set to I-formation about 60%, trips 40%
- 90% run mix except for 3rd/4th and long, which is 0% run
- Defense is set for 5-2 75%, nickel 25%
- Run/pass is roughly balanced in first scenario
- In all rush defense, run D% is set to 100% except for 3rd/4th down
- In first two scenarios, blitz % was 12-20%, increasing with each down
- In all blitz scenario, blitz is set for 100% for all downs/distances
- Stats below are for RBs only - all QB rushes / sacks are excluded


I'll try posting a results chart below, not sure it will work, but here's my concern - outside runs are still significantly more successful, and against an all - rush defense and an all-rush blitz defense, the gap is even wider - outside runs are barely impacted by all rush D, while inside is shut down. As you'll see from the chart below:

1) against a balanced defense, an all outside attack averages almost 8 YPC, with almost half the games resulting in YPC > 8
2) against a balanced defense, an all inside attack averages just over 6 YPC, with only 1/4 of the games resulting in YPC > 7 (vs. 3/4 of games for all outside)

1) against an all rush defense, an all outside attack averages around 6.4 YPC, with 54% of the games resulting in > 6 YPC, and 2% below 4 YPC
2) against an all rush defense, an all inside attack averages under 4 YPC, with only 2% of games resulting in > 6 YPC, and 60% below 4 YPC

1) against an all rush, all blitz defense, an all outside attack averages over 6.5 YPC, with 62% of games resulting in > 6 YPC and 8% below 4 YPC
2) against an all rush, all blitz defense, an all inside attack averages right at 4 YPC, with 4% of games resulting in 6> YPC and 54% below 4 YPC

It seems that the rush focus of the defense shuts down inside attack much better than outside, which only exaggerates the already existing gap between outside rushing and inside rushing.

vs 5-2 / nickel, balanced defense, 10-20% blitz
Formation rbrush rb yds rb avg % < 100 yds % 101-200 yds % 201-300 yds % 301-400 yds % > 401 yds % < 3 YPC % 3-4 YPC % 4-5 YPC % 5-6 YPC % 6-7 YPC % 7-8 YPC % > 8 YPC
I/Trips 50/50 in-out 3532 24372     6.90 2% 22% 54% 10% 2% 2% 2% 14% 18% 20% 16% 28%
I/Trips All outside 4588 36422     7.94 0% 20% 22% 40% 36% 0% 0% 2% 8% 16% 26% 48%
I/Trips All Inside 4338 26704     6.16 0% 16% 56% 20% 8% 0% 6% 24% 26% 16% 12% 16%
vs 5-2 / nickel, all rush defense, 10-20% blitz
Formation rbrush rb yds rb avg % < 100 yds % 101-200 yds % 201-300 yds % 301-400 yds % > 401 yds % < 3 YPC % 3-4 YPC % 4-5 YPC % 5-6 YPC % 6-7 YPC % 7-8 YPC % > 8 YPC
I/Trips 50/50 in-out 3288 17574     5.34 10% 58% 28% 4% 0% 2% 20% 22% 30% 8% 8% 10%
I/Trips All outside 4246 27126     6.39 0% 16% 54% 24% 6% 0% 2% 14% 30% 24% 16% 14%
I/Trips All Inside 3980 15090     3.79 16% 62% 22% 0% 0% 24% 36% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0%
vs 5-2 / nickel, all rush defense, 100% blitz
Formation rbrush rb yds rb avg % < 100 yds % 101-200 yds % 201-300 yds % 301-400 yds % > 401 yds % < 3 YPC % 3-4 YPC % 4-5 YPC % 5-6 YPC % 6-7 YPC % 7-8 YPC % > 8 YPC
I/Trips 50/50 in-out 3346 16896     5.05 16% 54% 26% 4% 0% 8% 28% 18% 18% 12% 10% 6%
I/Trips All outside 4264 28008     6.57 0% 12% 46% 36% 6% 0% 8% 8% 22% 22% 24% 16%
I/Trips All Inside 4020 16186     4.03 14% 60% 26% 0% 0% 18% 36% 24% 18% 2% 2% 0%
4/16/2013 11:28 AM
Can you post your RB attributes?  I have a Str RB that is having more luck inside than out.
4/16/2013 12:09 PM
Year Pos A SPD D WE ST TKL H GI E T
Robert Montgomery Jr. RB 59 53 28 47 47 64 35 2 48 47 49 45 524
Patrick Flores Sr. RB 47 66 42 61 36 57 53 17 58 64 47 53 601
Mark Meade Sr. RB 54 63 43 36 64 51 71 20 50 47 69 51 619

No studs in this list - Meade is the primary ballcarrier, with Montgomery the backup. I didn't copy the individual rushing data, but I can tell you that Montgomery probably had 30-40 100 yard games with < 10 carries in the 900 games run,and his speed/athleticism are mediocre at best.

Because I run a 5-2, that may explain part of the success of outside runs. However, that still doesn't address why the averages for outside runs didn't drop much vs an all run defense, while inside runs YPC dropped almost 2.5 yards.

If I have time, I'll try to run a similar test using the 4-4 as the base defense and see what happens.
4/16/2013 12:25 PM
You also should keep an eye on stuffs.
4/16/2013 12:27 PM
You might also want to check the inside versus outside match ups.  Need to eliminate that the outside defense is actually just weaker than the inside defense.
4/16/2013 1:09 PM
I'll make some tweaks and re-run, and note other stats such as stuffs and sacks.
4/16/2013 1:17 PM
Thanks for the info.  I was curious as to if it differed between backs.  My guy at DIII is 78 str 62 spd and 48 elus.  So far I can limit him on the outside but not inside.  Of course I run a 4-3.   May try 4-4 or 5-2 later.
4/18/2013 3:40 PM
http://whatif.cincinnati.com/gdbeta/TeamProfile/PlayerRatings.aspx?tid=2125


I made some roster adjustments (moving my best LBs to outside LBs, better linemen to DE, changing sub level to 90%), added 4-4 game plans for each scenario, and re-ran the tests. My lead RB is good but not great for DII and more of a speed back, but the backups have all greater strength than ath/spd/elus. The results are essentially the same:

- Outside runs average .8-1.5 YPC higher vs. a balanced defense
- When the defense is set to all run, the gap increases to 2 YPC (5.7 out, 3.7 in)
- When the defense is set to all run 100% blitz, the difference is still 2 YPC (5.9 out vs 3.9 in)
- More stuffs on outside runs (18.4% out vs 16.7% in)
- Double the big plays outside (5.3% out vs. 2.8% in)

All Inside Runs - RB Totals                
Name Att Yds Avg TDs 20+ Stf% % 20+  
Balanced 5-2, all inside runs 2013 13359        6.64 123 115 9.8% 5.7%  
Balanced 4-4, all inside runs 2004 11239        5.61 103 71 9.6% 3.5%  
All rush 5-2, all inside runs 2020 7686        3.80 66 41 20.8% 2.0%  
All rush 4-4, all inside runs 1906 6777        3.56 56 25 18.9% 1.3%  
All rush 5-2 blitz, all inside runs 2016 8274        4.10 65 48 21.1% 2.4%  
All rush 4-4 blitz, all inside runs 1885 6826        3.62 41 29 20.1% 1.5%  
   Inside Run Totals (300 games) 11844 54161         4.57 454 329 16.7% 2.8%  
                 
All outside Runs - RB Totals                
Name Att Yds Avg TDs 20+ Stf% % 20+ YPC vs. Inside
Balanced 5-2, all outside runs 2099 15643        7.45 158 152 14.6% 7.2%                    0.82
Balanced 4-4, all outside runs 2118 15091        7.13 154 118 11.0% 5.6%                    1.52
All rush 5-2, all outside runs 2056 12138        5.90 96 103 22.5% 5.0%                       2.10
All rush 4-4, all outside runs 2003 10925        5.45 99 85 21.7% 4.2%                       1.90
All rush 5-2 blitz, all outside runs 2015 12181        6.05 130 112 22.1% 5.6%                       1.94
All rush 4-4 blitz, all outside runs 2038 11492        5.64 87 82 19.1% 4.0%                       2.02
   Outside Run Totals (300 games) 12329 77470         6.28 724 652 18.4% 5.3%                        1.71

Lead RB Meade % of Games in Yards Category            
  0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251-300 >300
Balanced 5-2, all inside runs 0% 2% 16% 28% 34% 14% 6%
Balanced 4-4, all inside runs 0% 4% 36% 34% 18% 6% 2%
Balanced 5-2, all outside runs 0% 0% 6% 34% 30% 24% 26%
Balanced 4-4, all outside runs 0% 0% 2% 22% 38% 16% 22%
  0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251-300 >300
All rush 5-2, all inside runs 0% 42% 44% 10% 4% 0% 0%
All rush 4-4, all inside runs 2% 58% 26% 12% 2% 0% 0%
All rush 5-2, all outside runs 0% 6% 18% 28% 36% 10% 2%
All rush 4-4, all outside runs 0% 4% 34% 36% 20% 6% 0%
  0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251-300 >300
All rush 5-2 blitz, all inside runs 0% 32% 50% 10% 8% 0% 0%
All rush 4-4 blitz, all inside runs 2% 44% 48% 4% 2% 0% 0%
All rush 5-2 blitz, all outside runs 0% 4% 12% 36% 28% 12% 8%
All rush 4-4 blitz, all outside runs 0% 10% 28% 28% 24% 8% 2%

Lead RB Meade % of Games in YPC by Category            
  <3.0 3.0-3.9 4.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 7.0-7.9 >8.0
Balanced D 5-2, all inside runs 2% 0% 20% 10% 22% 22% 24%
Balanced D 4-4, all inside runs 0% 14% 26% 22% 24% 6% 8%
Balanced D 5-2, all outside runs 0% 2% 4% 10% 18% 32% 34%
Balanced D 4-4, all outside runs 0% 0% 10% 6% 32% 14% 38%
  <3.0 3.0-3.9 4.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 7.0-7.9 >8.0
All rush D 5-2, all inside runs 26% 38% 22% 8% 4% 0% 2%
All rush D 4-4, all inside runs 40% 38% 4% 16% 0% 2% 0%
All rush D 5-2, all outside runs 2% 6% 14% 20% 24% 22% 12%
All rush D 4-4, all outside runs 4% 8% 28% 26% 18% 8% 8%
  <3.0 3.0-3.9 4.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 7.0-7.9 >8.0
All rush D 5-2 blitz, all inside runs 24% 32% 20% 14% 6% 4% 0%
All rush D 4-4 blitz, all inside runs 34% 38% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0%
All rush D 5-2 blitz, all outside runs 2% 10% 12% 16% 26% 18% 16%
All rush D 4-4 blitz, all outside runs 6% 12% 16% 26% 22% 10% 8%

4/18/2013 8:56 PM
Nice work trey.  Unfortunately, this issue of inside/outside running was brought up the first week of the beta release with similarly compelling data in the council and we're still waiting for some kind of adjustment.  On the bright side, at least it's not as messed up as passing.
4/18/2013 9:32 PM
I waited until after the 4/11 release - was hoping those changes would have an impact.
4/19/2013 12:24 PM
Posted by treymack on 4/18/2013 9:32:00 PM (view original):
I waited until after the 4/11 release - was hoping those changes would have an impact.
The numbers are much closer than they were after the rushing update.  I don't know what slider's beef is with me but he's been up my crawl since day one.  The implication that nothing has been done since the start of beta is flat out insulting.  The results you have been compiling trey are very appreciated and will help in adjusting the engine.  Some of the results I have seen with my testing are different, but you are looking at a much different mix of players and settings, so that will give me some points to look at.
4/19/2013 12:44 PM
If you look at the balance of big plays on both inside and outside, they should be the same once you get past runs that are about 6 yards or less.  The chances after the rusher gets past those 6 yards are the same, so the real differences should be inside that range.  Generally the thought is that outside rushes would produce more stuffs and less short runs, which in turn is what leads to the increased long runs.  Inside rushes are trying to break through the line while outside is trying to run around it.  Higher STR RBs should be more successful inside while higher SPD RBs should be more successful outside.  To that extent, it looks like the numbers are all pointing towards those results - maybe not to the correct levels - but definitely in the adjustable range. 

The one thing I have to look at that doesn't make sense is the effect of blitzing in these results.  I would expect there to be a higher number of stuffs but then a higher number of long runs - since there is an extra player at the line but one less player down field.  You trade the chance to stuff a player for the risk of a lower chance to tackle him if you don't stop him.

There are also many more factors that I don't think we are looking at here.  Don't forget the impact of TECH, GI, and IQs on the plays.  Your OL seem to be slightly better than your defense and I'm wondering if part of the problem with lack of blitzing effect is just that the one extra defender doesn't contribute that much to the blocking at the line as it would most likely be a DB and I'm not sure which DB is blitzing.  That could have a big impact on the effects of blitzing.

4/19/2013 1:08 PM
Posted by norbert on 4/19/2013 12:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by treymack on 4/18/2013 9:32:00 PM (view original):
I waited until after the 4/11 release - was hoping those changes would have an impact.
The numbers are much closer than they were after the rushing update.  I don't know what slider's beef is with me but he's been up my crawl since day one.  The implication that nothing has been done since the start of beta is flat out insulting.  The results you have been compiling trey are very appreciated and will help in adjusting the engine.  Some of the results I have seen with my testing are different, but you are looking at a much different mix of players and settings, so that will give me some points to look at.
I have no beef with you and I'm sorry if you're insulted, I know you're working on the engine.  If you feel I'm up your crawl, it's because I've been vocal about wanting a better engine and have had ideas I thought would be useful.  I see a lot of potential with this game, I just want it realized.  

Having said that, Trey's data shows that the inside/outside running issue has possibly worsened depending on defensive setting.  You should probably look into this.  
4/19/2013 2:23 PM
What part of those numbers are showing that the results have worsened, and what part of that are you expecting to be different.  I think the numbers aren't exactly balanced yet, but it looks like all of them are pointing in the direction they should be (e.g. lower rushing numbers for rushing defense, etc.).  I don't claim or expect to have the engine to the point where it would be released and that's part of the reason for having the beta.  When I make adjustments in the engine, I can only do so much testing and look at certain match ups and balance to those, so it helps to see other tests where the numbers don't match up with what I have been seeing.  That allows me to find where the results need to be tweaked to bring those back in to balance.  I can look at results of games, but having other people look at things like trey is doing helps out a lot more.  I think I've been pretty upfront about where the engine stands and even now I'm still saying there needs to be more work done on the YAC.  If you see something in the engine, whether aggregate stats like this or even in just one game, please post about it along with what you would expect.  Not everything can be tweaked to perfection but it can help in making improvements.  I also have to look at results with more scrutiny than you guys do, as sometimes not all the factors are being considered.  If I say to look at other points of the play, it's to rule out all the possibilities and narrow down where any issues might be.  Believe me, if it were as easy as waving a magic wand and having a perfect engine spit out perfect results that everyone agrees with, that would be great (assuming I can find a magic wand).

But I believe if you actually look closer at the results and all the factors, you'll find the results are much better than they used to be and that settings and ratings actually do affect the outcomes.  That doesn't mean the engine is where we want it to be.


4/19/2013 2:31 PM
Just one question...do we really want the numbers to equal what the current engine is doing? Personally I think the current engine is too slanted towards passing but idk
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