All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > SimLeague Basketball > Probability and Owner Influence in the Sim. Engine
10/9/2013 4:50 PM
This is probably a pointless thread but I felt like discussing.

I recently had 5/5 teams lose at the same time. These teams combined were rolling at .683 winning percentage (.736 for the combination of four of the five of them).

Assuming these teams were all playing during the same 82 game stretch, this should happen 1 out of every 37.86 games (using the win percentage of all five combined).

I was wondering if anyone has seen anything that could be considered an outlier with regard to all of your teams losing in one session, specifically when this involves teams that should not have lost a game that simulation. I know the sim is magical and mysterious, but I'm just wondering if there could, even possibly, be some factor involved in the engine that has to do with an owner. I'm not suggesting any kind of vendetta or bias, but some kind of correlation that could explain a scenario where teams that (more than likely) shouldn't have lost but do in conjunction with most/all of your other teams. Possibly some kind of over-arching "owner factor" for a simulation set that goes in to a simulation. Who knows. I'm not saying 5/5 teams losing in a week is woah crazy crazy...but it just got me thinking/running the numbers and I was wondering if anyone else had any thoughts.

Thanks.
10/9/2013 5:12 PM
i think soem time over the summer i had 3 teams that would have all hovered around .500 but they all had cray winning streaks all of them winning atleast 8 in a row it same week. but have no idea whether that was just luck or sim magic
10/9/2013 6:43 PM
It's happened to both monkee & myself... especially during our most critical times of the sim.  Coincidence?
10/9/2013 11:15 PM
idk but honestly it probably is a coincidence. i'm not even sure if the programmers here are competent enough or put enough thought into the sim to actually systematically mess with that
10/11/2013 7:19 AM
all Ls this am...
10/22/2013 2:01 PM
To anyone who says "Well it could happen in real life...".  This would never happen in real life.  




PLAYER MIN FGM/FGA 3PM/3PA FTM/FTA OREB REB AST BLK STL TO PF TP
06-07 Elton Brand* 40 4/9 0/0 8/8 2 6 4 5 0 2 0 16
12-13 Kevin Durant* 38 11/21 3/5 14/17 0 5 5 1 2 2 0 39
80-81 Caldwell Jones* 33 0/4 0/0 5/6 3 8 1 0 1 0 1 5
10-11 Rajon Rondo* 31 4/7 0/0 1/2 0 4 8 0 3 3 0 9
09-10 Troy Murphy 30 7/13 1/4 2/3 0 12 2 0 3 2 1 17
09-10 Pau Gasol* 29 5/11 0/0 2/3 1 6 3 1 2 4 2 12
11-12 Derrick Rose 23 5/9 0/0 3/5 0 4 6 0 1 1 0 13
94-95 Tracy Murray 6 0/4 0/1 0/0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
07-08 Jamaal Magloire 4 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
76-77 George Karl 4 1/3 0/0 0/0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
88-89 Calvin Natt 3 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
TOTALS   37/81 4/10 35/44 6 47 30 7 13 15 4 113
  45.7% 40.0% 79.5%  
Trip to Belize?

PLAYER MIN FGM/FGA 3PM/3PA FTM/FTA OREB REB AST BLK STL TO PF TP
73-74 Bob McAdoo* 42 16/29 0/1 1/1 2 9 2 2 3 1 4 33
07-08 Deron Williams* 40 8/16 2/2 0/0 0 3 15 2 0 8 4 18
94-95 Nick Anderson* 37 8/15 4/7 0/0 0 6 5 0 3 2 3 20
10-11 Kevin Love* 32 6/14 3/3 1/1 1 9 2 0 2 2 6 16
11-12 Ed Davis 23 3/7 0/0 0/0 3 7 0 1 1 2 6 6
09-10 Chris Andersen* 21 2/3 0/0 0/0 1 5 1 2 0 3 5 4
95-96 Michael Smith 16 2/2 0/0 0/0 1 6 2 0 1 1 2 4
95-96 Tim Hardaway 12 1/6 0/2 0/0 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 2
09-10 Rodrigue Beaubois 8 2/6 1/4 0/0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 5
95-96 Jon Barry 3 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
05-06 Ha Seung-Jin 3 0/1 0/0 0/0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
04-05 Andris Biedrins 3 1/1 0/0 0/0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 2
TOTALS   49/100 10/19 2/2 10 51 30 8 11 20 31 110
  49.0% 52.6% 100.0%  
* - denotes game starter?
10/22/2013 4:05 PM
That road-court-advantage thing going on, eh?
10/23/2013 6:43 PM
What's more, he had 3 starters under 95% fatigue.
10/23/2013 6:57 PM
this belongs in the daily ration of nonsense!
10/29/2013 1:54 PM
badja...thats what you get for drafting a foul-magnet like kevin love
10/29/2013 11:44 PM
Posted by dh555 on 10/29/2013 1:54:00 PM (view original):
badja...thats what you get for drafting a foul-magnet like kevin love
and Ed Davis...fouling out in 23 minutes
10/30/2013 2:21 AM
and in real life (courtesy of NBA.com)

Fewest free-throw attempts, game
2 -- Cleveland vs. Golden State, November 26, 1994

10/30/2013 2:29 AM
There were 9 fouls called against Golden State.   Cavaliers hit both free-throws, and actually won the game 101-87.
Going 11-22 from beyond the arc might have been a factor ...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199411260CLE.html
10/30/2013 5:12 PM
I enjoyed a 6 to 37 fta differential this morning which is close
10/30/2013 9:50 PM
also reality is no excuse for the behaviors of the sim (long story)
All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > SimLeague Basketball > Probability and Owner Influence in the Sim. Engine

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