2/25/2014 11:51 AM
Does anyone, anyone at all, have the slightest understanding of WIS' rebounding "logic"?   Even more than anything else, the rebounding for teams seems to be nothing but random.  I constantly see teams with combined rebound %s 20-25 less than their opponents still outrebounding them.  I know it's never going to change, and I've never seen anyone try to explain it, so I just thought I'd ask.  Any constructive input appreciated.
2/25/2014 4:04 PM
Oreb% of the offense vs Dreb% of the defense on a missed FGA
2/25/2014 9:36 PM
missed FTAs are pure gimmes and a big differential of missed FGAs can skew things but yeah, random
2/26/2014 8:54 AM
its a little random. sometimes the raptors outrebound the timberwolves, what can ya do? real life is random. but i do draft teams with very strong rebounding %s at the SF,PF and C spots, and typically rank at the very top of the league in rebounds, and average significant more rebounds per game than my opponent....so the numbres do play a role...
2/26/2014 10:00 AM
real life is not random, actually - it is complex beyond our kennings but not random

also the sim is routinely subject to more extraordinary abberant behaviors than real life
2/26/2014 1:02 PM
trevor ariza hit 5 of 5 threes last night. good nights? bad nights? some random nights you are on fire. theres not much design responsible for something like that

sometimes the 76ers beat the heat....

sometimes weak rebounding teams outrebound strong rebounding teams. sometimes my monster rebound teams get outrebounded, but if you look at the averages they typically dominate the glass. what is statistically supposed to happen doesnt always happen

am i making sense here?
2/26/2014 8:14 PM
yes but you're missing the point

a) the sim works opposite of reality -stats are (allegedly) prescriptive of future outcomes in the sim, in reality they are descriptive of what has already occurred - in the sim you pay for those stats in anticipation of their prescriptive power (all salaries are calibrated to those stats)

and

b) the degree and frequency of aberrant behaviors in the sim (where stats are supposed to be functioning prescriptively) is far greater than in real life (where stats are merely describing what has occurred after the fact) - this is not mere opinion, several users have illustrated this over the years
2/26/2014 8:42 PM
Posted by felonius on 2/26/2014 8:14:00 PM (view original):
yes but you're missing the point

a) the sim works opposite of reality -stats are (allegedly) prescriptive of future outcomes in the sim, in reality they are descriptive of what has already occurred - in the sim you pay for those stats in anticipation of their prescriptive power (all salaries are calibrated to those stats)

and

b) the degree and frequency of aberrant behaviors in the sim (where stats are supposed to be functioning prescriptively) is far greater than in real life (where stats are merely describing what has occurred after the fact) - this is not mere opinion, several users have illustrated this over the years
this.
2/26/2014 10:27 PM
and consider.....


in reality the NBA sez 7 games is enough to decide the better team in a play-off series

seble sez 10 games are not enough to normalize statistical aberration in the sim....
2/27/2014 8:39 AM
Double "AMEN" for those 2 posts felonius.
2/27/2014 3:19 PM
I just get the feeling that many users cannot accept an outcome that is not the statistically probable outcome, if you know what i mean.

in the sim, it seems like the well-made teams still tend to win. ****** teams still tend to lose. monster rebound teams still snag most of the boards. teams that under value rebounds get squeezed out.

but yall owners are way more experienced in the sim than I am, but i personally dont feel like anything is way out of whack yet. this coming from someone who hasnt won it all yet.
2/27/2014 3:34 PM
Posted by hboms on 2/27/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
I just get the feeling that many users cannot accept an outcome that is not the statistically probable outcome, if you know what i mean.

in the sim, it seems like the well-made teams still tend to win. ****** teams still tend to lose. monster rebound teams still snag most of the boards. teams that under value rebounds get squeezed out.

but yall owners are way more experienced in the sim than I am, but i personally dont feel like anything is way out of whack yet. this coming from someone who hasnt won it all yet.
Here's the thing... both sides are right.

Felon's absolutely 100% correct:  You pay for stats that are supposed to determine the outcome... yet those stats don't seem to do that very much.  There IS too much randomness in the sim.  You need some randomness or it'd be pointless to even play, yes, but extreme statistical outliers determine the outcome far too often.  I'd give you an example of this, but I'm afraid it would turn into a post where I give you 743 examples because it is literally that easy to see on any given day.  In real life, statistics are determined by action; in the sim, action is supposed to be determined by statistics.  Extreme outliers should almost not even be part of the equation, but they are.

But you're also absolutely right.  There are owners who have had sour grapes for years.  They continue to ***** about the same things, yet they are still around.  There's a difference between them, however.  A guy like felon knows his stuff and consistently makes winning squads.  Almost no complaint he makes is unwarranted, yet he rises above more often than not and still fields winning squads because he has learned what actually happens instead of refusing to adapt & continue to put out teams that don't get the job done & blaming randomness on his record.  Others do the latter.

The best advice I can give anyone in the sim is to think less about basketball and more about building teams that increase your chances of winning the die roll, because that's basically what every play in the sim is: one big fat die roll.  So use loaded dice.

2/27/2014 6:01 PM
Could the game to game statistical outliers be reduced?  Yes (one way would be to sim each game three times and take the median result).  Do I think a clearly superior team will lose a playoff series because of these outliers?  Rarely.
2/27/2014 7:08 PM
I know it's anecdotal but how often have you heard one owner or another lament the fact that their 60+ win team with the first round bye got knocked out in the second round?
2/28/2014 12:52 AM
Just happened in a league I'm in. Dh555 had a 61 win team (rodman, jordan, durant) get knocked out by a 39 win team (said team is now in the finals).
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