Posted by elbirdo on 4/26/2012 3:09:00 PM (view original):
I was looking over this and I would like to update my formula with what I'm using now

I multiply BFP by 3.392 add 4.444 for each BB and add 1.916 for each strikeout.

For Gagne

BFP = 306
BB = 20
SO = 137

3.392(306) + 4.444(20) + 1.916(137) = 1389.24 pitches

Thanks for sharing, elbirdo.  Does this revised formula include the 10% bonus?

yep

I am bumping this for its huge importance. I also must say, I have not been able to apply it as my calculations always come out to impossible numbers - one attemtp to use this formula today resulted, depending on where I am supposed to put the decimal point, in either 4 or 40 pitches per IP for one pitcher. So if anyone thinks they can walk those of us who do not see equations and immediately comprehend them the way we do words or pictures through this more simply, it would be appreciated it. 

Elbirdo, I apologize, because we all recognize your great, great contribution here, and thank you for sharing this knowledge. My lack of being able to apply is my own failing. But if someone can take another whack at it, thanks. 

Let me say that elbirdo's formula is brilliant and robmb's synthesis above is VERY helpful for those of us who take a minute to grasp the math.

I just ran a calculation on 1886 Matt Kilroy for a theme league of 700+ IP pitchers I have him in. After getting it WRONG about 7 times and making a fool of myself in front of the whole owners' message board (for those of you who recently wrote me saying I was so smart after some recent philosophical forum posts), I got it using the approach robmb uses: 

Ignoring for the moment the 10% SIM bonus:

Kilroy goes 721 innings in which he faces 2426 batters (PA) times 3.392, plus 182 walks (BB)  times 4.444 plus 513 strikeouts (K) times 1.916. Taking this resulting number multiplied by 4.450 which is 721 IP divided by 162 gives me 10,021 pitches allocated annually. Since he has already thrown 7,622 or 76 percent of his allocated pitches, over 70 games, he has another 2,450. With the 10% bonus that can go to 2,695. If I want him to pitch 30 of my last 32 games in the season, I should set his PC accordingly at TPC 80, MPC  90. 

Have I gotten something wrong here ? 

trentonjoe informed me on the owners message board in the league that I was neglecting that if Kilroy was at 99% - which for the first time all year he just fell to after his 70th start, out of 130 team games, it meant he was feeling the affects of having gone over the threshold for his PC proportionally to team games played. He suggest instead I limit Kilroy to around 23 more starts and set his PC to 120. Thanks. 

Wow. And I thought I had done a passable job finally of using this formula. I remain your humble student elbirdo, and grateful as always. 

You did it correctly.  Just need to adjust your BFP, SO and BB for 162 games.  Your value of 10,021 was for 131 games.  Multiply by 162 and divide by 131 = 12392 pitches, which is what I got.

Thanks. Ok. I understand now. I was missing that crucial step. 

Posted by elbirdo on 5/30/2012 7:40:00 PM (view original):

You are using actual values - you need to use Actual Statistics (projected to a 162 game season)

For Kilroy

 

BFP=3000

BB=225

SO=634

 

3.392(3000) + 4.444(225) + 1.916(634) = 

 

10176 + 999.9 + 1214.744   = 12391 pitches for a 162 game season.

 

divided by 162 games = 76.4 pitches per game

After 132 games he has thrown 7708 pitches which is only 76 % of full usage (132 * 76.4 = 10085)

Your Kilroy has 4063 pitches left in the bank or 156 pitches for each of your team's remaining 30 games.  

Unfortunately, if you try this he will show temporary fatigue from the infamous "tired from recent game activity".  That's what the 99% thing was about, I imagine.  He has not even approached in full usage at this point in the season. 

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in.  (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

This is one of those situations where you probably cannot get full usage of his allocated pitch count.

For some reason, I am finding it hard to grasp predicting the onset of in-game fatigue.  Is it based on exceeding some number of pitches for the game or does it set in if the pitcher exceeds his RL IP/G for that particular game?

Exceeding the pitch count which is equal to pitches per season divided by games per season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in.  (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

elbirdo, I have set him just a little lower than that - at 135 MPC. Basically besides trying to win, this league has three other competitions: who can get the most games out of their 700+ IP starter (which I have no likelihood of winning); who can get the most games at 100% from their 700+ IP starter (my 1886 Kilroy is tied for first at the moment); who can get the most innings pitched from their 700+ IP starter beyond his target IP total (which I can't do as you point out and am not entirely sure I know what it means). 

I will let you know how it goes. Since I would like to remain in the running for the 100% level games competition, I am going to play it just a shade more conservatively on this point, especially as I am trying to fun Kilroy now as a nearly one-man rotation, throwing Dutch Leonard or Greg Maddux in every fourth game. But Kilroy did one stretch of 8 or 9 games straight at one point before he finally hit 99% for the first time all season. He is now up to 73 of which 72 have been at 100%. 

It is worth pointing out though, that NO ONE ever ACTUALLY pitched these many innings: these SIM numbers come from the IP/162 stretching out effect by which pitchers in years that played fewer than 162 games have their stats extended as it were to fit a 162 game schedule.

But it is a fun league, in which many of the who's who of WIS baseball (of which I am not ever going to be one) have teams. I can think of one expert on pitch counts who is missing. Would have been nice to see how you did this in practice there elbirdo. Maybe next time. Or maybe it is too easy for you. You are like those chess champs that can play 8 opponents at once - so we should have a league based around different pitching configurations and have you set the counts for half the teams or something ! Anyway, again, thanks. 

I would be really curious as to how it would work if you didn't concern yourself with Kilroy being at 99% or even 90%.  Just start him in a one man rotation with a 145 pitch count and let him go.  I've seen lots of examples of pitchers coming in at less than 100% and doing quite well.

Posted by elbirdo on 5/31/2012 6:46:00 PM (view original):
Exceeding the pitch count which is equal to pitches per season divided by games per season.

By my reckoning, Kilroy should be able to throw about 147 pitches in a game before in-game fatigue sets in.  (12391 pitches divided 84 games started)

elbirdo -- Thanks again!  I really appreciate your willingness to share your knowledge of this game.

I agree elbirdo. If you recall, a few weeks ago you helped with the very odd pitch count complications of Christy Mathewson. As it worked out he pitched brilliantly down as far as 89%. That team made the playoffs, swept the first round but got clobbered (Mathewson pitching all through the postseason at never more than 93%) in the LCS. 

Kilroy seems like he could pitch all day and all year. But I am by far the least experienced player in this league and the weird fact that for the moment I have a chance to pull off this upset (grizzly_one is one of the other players, contrarian23 another, just to give an idea, with about all of my fellow-owners at that level) is too enticing. 

My guess is I will fall behind at some point, in which case I will go back to what I was originally planning: to let Kilroy pitch a one-man rotation and just see what happens, setting him at 145. I will let you know how it turns out. Thanks again.