10/24/2009 7:41 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By gin_caesar on 10/24/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 10/24/2009
I could care less what people think about me, you're trying to paint opinion and assumption as fact, and that just isn't the case. You're saying that WIS doesn't use a pseudo random number generator AND YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, nobody does. If they're using some sort of pseudo rng, clustering can and will happen, period...you don't know how advanced WIS' rng is or isn't, so shut the hell up about it. I completely understand what you're saying, just that your "explanation" has nothing to do with the topic at hand, whether WIS uses TRUE or PSEUDO randomness. You provided NO PROOF to show that they use either or.
You clearly don't understand because nowhere did I assert anything about how the sim gets it's random numbers since it doesn't matter. The language the sim is written in and the worse case prng in the framework is not assumption or opinion, it's fact. 16 million is as bad as it can be, maybe you need to take some time and deal with it...

Its you that doesn't get it...it isn't that there are 16 million possibilities (or so you say, you still have no proof or evidence that this is so), its that these "16 million possibilities" oddly cluster for certain periods of time throughout the sim and as you can see from the example that I provided, PSEUDO RANDOMNESS clusters for certain periods of time just because...no it may not directly tie in to what WIS uses, NOBODY TRULY KNOWS THAT, but from what I've seen, if you don't use TRUE RANDOMNESS, you're bound to have clustering of events, and I can't count how many times I've seen that. You say there's just a problem with the implementation of randomness...BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT...and until its proven to me, I will believe that this is part of the problem as well as the possibility of WIS' RNG producing pseudo randomness that further creates bizarre results. For the last time, YOU DON'T KNOW, YOU DON'T HAVE FACTS, YOU'RE MAKING ASSUMPTIONS about WIS' RNG based upon your knowledge of .NET...and you're merely an air traffic controller, you said so yourself via sitemail. You have no more credibility than anyone else here. I will never believe that WIS uses TRUE RANDOMNESS because I probably will never have concrete proof that they do, thus I WILL ALWAYS QUESTION the clustering and why the sim "takes a ****" when it feels like it. Someone from WIS saying they use TRUE RANDOMNESS isn't going to do anything for me either...what else are they going to say? WIS admit that its wrong, HA!

I know that you like to pretend that since you made a sim with dice and an excel spreadsheet that you can critique code and rant about programming concepts, but you can't. Well I guess you can, but you'll be reduced to this "IT'S PSEUDORANDOMNESS AND IT'S BAD FOR MY GAME SIM!" nonsense.

For what its worth, I never made my own game, I kicked it around, but in the end never put that much work into it. I have contended that WIS is too/overly complex for its own good and I think poor results compounded with lengthy fixes/tweaks/adjustments/updates further back my reasoning. The complexity of the program doesn't mean **** if the game sucks...simplicity is underrated. You don't understand what I'm getting at here, so either get with it, or move along...I'm tired of having to say the same things over and over to a troll that has a comprehension problem.

10/24/2009 8:40 PM
"oddly cluster for certain periods of time just because"

I gave you too much credit. I assumed that you understood what was going on in your own example which you paste all over the place. My initial instict to just call you a moron appears to have been correct.

When I told you I was an air traffic controller you were soliciting advice on a malfunctioning mouse or some other **** that for whatever reason you thought I'd like to help you on.
10/24/2009 10:00 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By gin_caesar on 10/24/2009

"oddly cluster for certain periods of time just because" It happens, and other users have said so in this very thread.

I gave you too much credit. I assumed that you understood what was going on in your own example which you paste all over the place. My initial instict to just call you a moron appears to have been correct. Gin, we agree that there are implementation of randomness problems in this sim as well as other sims, I'm just taking the argument a step further because I don't think TRUE RANDOMNESS is used, which would further compound the problem. Again, I don't see how/why this is so hard to understand...its very possible for WIS to be using SOME SORT of PSEUDO RANDOMNESS, especially with the clustering problems if/when there are 16 MILLION potential numbers/outcomes.

When I told you I was an air traffic controller you were soliciting advice on a malfunctioning mouse or some other **** that for whatever reason you thought I'd like to help you on.

To be honest, I'd rather be told to f**k off than to be lied to, in any situation. A long time back, 3-6 years or so, I remember that you told me in a post somewhere that if I needed programming help, that I could ask you, thus that's what I was doing when I sitemailed you. I don't hold grudges, I don't hate anyone on this site, and I'm just as open and willing as anyone else on this site to help someone else if help is needed and asked for. Again, I don't consider "thread hate" to be serious or to even matter, that's why I was looking to you for help, and that's the honest truth. And FWIW, it wasn't a mouse question, it was something to do with Microsoft Access I believe, but I can't find the original sitemail. Take care, gin.

10/24/2009 10:31 PM
Quote: Originally posted by dh555 on 10/24/2009i didnt mean to break up the nerd convention with my question...but it obviously got lost in all this silly talk
Hey dh, about the end of game - I'm by no means an expert here but I think they just subjectively selected the best players to take the last shots at the end of games. I don't think usage % has anything to do with it but I'm not completely sure.

Maybe you can shoot admin a sitemail and ask them why does a 50% free throw shooter get the ball at the end of a game with the lead?
10/24/2009 11:27 PM
Here's a riddle:

For the 87-88 season, Charles Oakley is rated at a 91 D. The next season, he drops 30 points down to 61. Why?
10/24/2009 11:46 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 10/24/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By gin_caesar on 10/24/2009

"oddly cluster for certain periods of time just because" It happens, and other users have said so in this very thread.

I gave you too much credit. I assumed that you understood what was going on in your own example which you paste all over the place. My initial instict to just call you a moron appears to have been correct. Gin, we agree that there are implementation of randomness problems in this sim as well as other sims, I'm just taking the argument a step further because I don't think TRUE RANDOMNESS is used, which would further compound the problem. Again, I don't see how/why this is so hard to understand...its very possible for WIS to be using SOME SORT of PSEUDO RANDOMNESS, especially with the clustering problems if/when there are 16 MILLION potential numbers/outcomes.

When I told you I was an air traffic controller you were soliciting advice on a malfunctioning mouse or some other **** that for whatever reason you thought I'd like to help you on.

To be honest, I'd rather be told to f**k off than to be lied to, in any situation. A long time back, 3-6 years or so, I remember that you told me in a post somewhere that if I needed programming help, that I could ask you, thus that's what I was doing when I sitemailed you. I don't hold grudges, I don't hate anyone on this site, and I'm just as open and willing as anyone else on this site to help someone else if help is needed and asked for. Again, I don't consider "thread hate" to be serious or to even matter, that's why I was looking to you for help, and that's the honest truth. And FWIW, it wasn't a mouse question, it was something to do with Microsoft Access I believe, but I can't find the original sitemail. Take care, gin.

I'm going to reset this and be as non-technical as possible. First let me tell you that I'm pretty sure that they would use pseudo random numbers, but don't freak out...

There isn't a concrete pseudo random number generator. It's an umbrella term for a method/twister/anything that makes random values from something that isn't random. There's a watchmaker discussion to be had here but I'll save that for another time. But you see, implementation is all that really matters with pseudo random numbers because onus is all on the developer to ensure that there aren't problems. As long as collisions/repeats/<insert faults here> are handled at the code level there is absolutely nothing wrong with pseudo-random numbers. There isn't an inherent fault that is definitely going to happen like "clustering" because there isn't a standardized concept to be followed when generating the number. I say this first as somebody who in ten years of development has never worked hands-on with true random numbers and never needed to even in things far more complex than a basketball simulator, and second as somebody who thinks that if a developer isn't accounting for how a prng is affecting output, true random numbers aren't going to save him because he doesn't know what the hell he's doing in the first place.

See the link you posted, as I cleared up earlier the developer didn't use the best method implementation and that was the cause of the repetition, not the method itself.

Make sense any of this?
10/25/2009 10:40 AM
Makes perfect sense, thank you. Just one last question...is it possible to use a TRUE rng in this/other programs, and if so, I'm assuming its more trouble than its worth?

I will admit that I get really particular with how things are done, like when I simulate my Home Run Derby matches (which is very sparse) I get my numbers from a proclaimed TRUE random number service in random.org. Firehawk used to do the same thing when he was simulating games in his own basketball sim, but I think it was more out of necessity than being ultimately "right"/true. He's the one that first showed me the TRUE v. PSEUDO random link that and when I saw it I was rather taken aback. I know my game(s) are very simple, much more so than WIS or many other sim games, but I will seek to use TRUE random in everything I do, just to be official/right...its just my personality, really.

Again, thank you for that civil, explanative response. Take care.
10/25/2009 12:12 PM
I think random.org can spit you out a true random number through a post request, but that wouldn't be good to use in volume or for something that you can't easily change. There are surely more robust services and packages out there you can purchase. But yeah, all that is just unnecessary work/expense when modern languages have powerful classes bundled for creating random numbers that are fine for most things, even preferable for others. If I were writing a sim-engine I think I'd rather use pseudos because I could log the seeds and recreate the exact random sequences later. Would make debugging bizarre outcomes much easier.

If you're just looking get some random numbers off the web and plug them in somewhere manually, there's really no reason not to use true random numbers because they're just as available as anything else. Knock yourself out.
10/25/2009 12:16 PM
LOUD NOISES
10/25/2009 1:17 PM
I love lamp.
10/26/2009 1:37 PM


Gonna find my baby, gonna hold her tight
gonna grab some afternoon delight.
My motto's always been; when it's right, it's right.
Why wait until the middle of a cold dark night.
When everything's a little clearer in the light of day.
And you know the night is always gonna be there any way.

Sky rockets in flight. Afternoon delight. Afternoon delight.

Thinkin' of you's workin' up my appetite
looking forward to a little afternoon delight.
Rubbin' sticks and stones together makes the sparks ingite
and the thought of rubbin' you is getting so exciting.

Sky rockets in flight. Afternoon delight. Afternoon delight.

Started out this morning feeling so polite
I always though a fish could not be caught who wouldn't bite
But you've got some bait a waitin' and I think I might try nibbling
a little afternoon delight.

Sky rockets in flight. Afternoon delight. Afternoon delight.

Please be waiting for me baby when I come around.
We could make a lot of lovin' 'for the sun goes down.

Sky rockets in flight. Afternoon delight. Afternoon delight.
10/26/2009 1:48 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By tnbishop on 10/23/2009

Quote: Originally posted by monkee on 10/23/2009

you dont get it - real life doesnt form a good basis for discussion of behaviors in the sim

there are myriad reasons for real life variance having to do with subjective factors that are not accounted for in the sim

the sim is simply stat tables plus chance - there are no factors for emotional intensity, illness, feeling the flow etc etc in the sim

and there shouldnt be because the number one element that maintains competitive balance in this game is the salary valuation of the stats we draft -we pay for 3000 minutes and 30% drb and 90 d and 50% shooting (and we pay a little less for 311 tos or 323 pfs) and if we get 3500 minutes instead of 3000 the competitive balance gets jacked up and if we get 20% drb instead of 30% the competitive balance gets jacked up etc etc

the sim works opposite of real life where stats are simply a descriptor of past outcomes

in the sim stats are suppsed to be the determining basis for those results - sim outcomes should vary less than real life does


No, you don't get it.. or perhaps don't have any understanding of variance or randomness. A game like poker would drive you nuts.

Ok, look at it this way... You're not buying 30% of all defensive rebounds with Dennis Rodman. You're buying a 30% chance for each rebound. (assuming everyone else is average). Some games you'll pull down 17, others 8. That's just how math works.




here's the thing that we seem to be miscommunicating on (and rather than insulting your intelligence I'll just call it out plain and simple)

we arent talking about how probability works we are talking about how this game works and how it should work

I wouldnt be paying $10 a pop to play poker online - that's the problem in a nutshell - again it's not the presence of randomness that is the issue (everyone understands that some randomness is necessary) its the degree of impact that that randomness has game to game

there are ways that the randomness can be modulated (some means of modulation used to be in place in earlier releases and others still are, at least one other has been suggested earlier in this thread)
10/26/2009 2:01 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By tnbishop on 10/23/2009


I don't see how real life is any different. You can average Jordan's 1990 season and show he had say 27 FGAs a game. You know for a fact he shot that number per game. Then look back and see a bunch of 37s and 15s. Would that surprise you?


not really but it misses the point - in this game you pay for a certain usage% from that season's version of Mike - if Mike doesnt operate at that usage% and you have built your team with him as your primary scorer your entire team will suffer as other lower usage% players take more shots and activate the penalties (increased TOs, lower efficiency) for exceeding their usage

that wont happen in real life but it will happen in the sim and that's one big reason that the sim is and should be different
10/26/2009 2:08 PM
and one last thing

this game used to be about basketball and it used to be much more popular than it is now

6 or 7 years ago we used to discuss basketball players and history

now we discuss programming and statistical analysis

does that give anyone any ideas about what might have happened to lower the popularity of the sim?
10/26/2009 2:56 PM
heh
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