All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > Broncos - Ware's the defense?
10/9/2013 11:03 AM

INTs Reducing Win Probability By 20+ Pct.

QB INTs Att. Pct.
Matt Schaub 14 2,585 0.54
Mark Sanchez 9 1,867 0.48
Carson Palmer 9 2,254 0.40
Tony Romo 9 2,571 0.35
Philip Rivers 9 2,805 0.32
Drew Brees 9 3,335 0.27
Chad Henne 8 1,468 0.54
Kyle Orton 8 1,766 0.32
Jay Cutler 8 2,532 0.32
Eli Manning 8 2,855 0.28

Since that article brought up the win probability stuff, it reminded me of another article I had seen (that one was about Schaub) - the data is through 2008.   I think that's a pretty interesting list.
10/9/2013 11:23 AM
Can't wait for Drew Brees to **** up in the clutch again so we can start that "same old choke artist Drew Brees" talk again.
10/9/2013 11:46 AM
Brees is certainly the outlier on the list (and Manning to a lesser extent), but it's also worth noting that he has thrown almost 500 more passes than anyone else, 750 more than Romo.

My take away from this as it relates to Romo was that it's certainly not inaccurate to say that he makes the big, game altering, mistake rather frequently.   And yes, if he had some big time successes to balance it against like Brees and Manning, no one would care - but he doesn't.

And Schaub is just terrible.
10/9/2013 11:55 AM
Yea, the Saints throw a lot more.  I'm not sure why overall attempts are relevant here - should be attempts in which a pick would result in a 20+ pct swing.  Cowboys seem to play a lot of close games, I would guess (yes, purely a guess) that Romo actually has more attempts in big spots like that than Brees does.

And christ, Eli's known as CLUTCH!  And this argues that he isn't.  Perception isn't always reality it seems.
10/9/2013 12:00 PM
I'm not arguing Romo is clutch...just not the choke artist he's made out to be.  It's just always amazing how much blame he gets, when the Cowboys have had ACTUAL problems on their team for years.  He had one of the greatest QB performances of all-time Sunday, and he's getting all the blame for the loss.  Incredible.
10/9/2013 12:08 PM
We actually agree on this last game for the most part I think, but while he never should have been in that position based on how he played up to that point, he did make the terrible game-altering play, and there is a pattern of that.
10/9/2013 12:17 PM
You can't throw a pick inside of two minutes inside your 30 in a tie game.    You CAN'T do that and say "Hey, I had a great game other than that."

The Titanic was a nice cruise except for that sinking part.
10/9/2013 12:17 PM
And while you can certainly argue that we view Brees and Manning through rose colored glasses because of their past postseason success, there's nothing about this list that is kind to Romo.
10/9/2013 12:27 PM
He had a legendary game other than that.  He had a great game with it.  Because he threw for 500 yards and 5 TDs.

 
10/9/2013 12:28 PM
Posted by AlCheez on 10/9/2013 12:17:00 PM (view original):
And while you can certainly argue that we view Brees and Manning through rose colored glasses because of their past postseason success, there's nothing about this list that is kind to Romo.
Find the list that shows the opposite of this, and see if Romo is on that too.
10/9/2013 12:30 PM
I think that's your job.
10/9/2013 12:45 PM
Jerry Jones thought Romo played a great game. He also said he had a great game in a Tony Romo chokejob in 2011. espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/6965896/dallas-cowboys-jerry-jones-says-tony-romo-outstanding-vs-new-york-jets
10/9/2013 10:58 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/9/2013 12:17:00 PM (view original):
You can't throw a pick inside of two minutes inside your 30 in a tie game.    You CAN'T do that and say "Hey, I had a great game other than that."

The Titanic was a nice cruise except for that sinking part.
It all depends when it happens. If Titanic sank 100 yards from shore and no one died, guess what: we're not talking about it.

If Romo throws that exact same pick within 2 minutes of the first half ending, Denver kicks the FG, and the rest of the game plays out the same, people are saying "Damn, what a game for Romo - he almost led his team past the mighty Broncos."

Manning had another great game, but statistically, Romo outperformed him. Manning also had a pick (which was much more of a gimme INT than Romo's) but no one's talking about that.
10/10/2013 5:36 AM
Food 4 fodder... The latest league-wide mentality, & approach to a gameplan
against Peyton, is simply 2 just keep-up with him...

If a QB who throws for 500 yds, & 5 Td's, & still can't beat Peyton, then let's try
& see if a QB throwing for 600yds, & 6TD's can beat him...

There's is NO defense that can stop Peyton... The NFL offenses have no other
option, but 2 try & keep-up... Romo tried... He followed the gameplan... For the
QB's ahead on Denver's schedule, this is the only realistic approach... 
10/10/2013 7:13 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 10/9/2013 10:58:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/9/2013 12:17:00 PM (view original):
You can't throw a pick inside of two minutes inside your 30 in a tie game.    You CAN'T do that and say "Hey, I had a great game other than that."

The Titanic was a nice cruise except for that sinking part.
It all depends when it happens. If Titanic sank 100 yards from shore and no one died, guess what: we're not talking about it.

If Romo throws that exact same pick within 2 minutes of the first half ending, Denver kicks the FG, and the rest of the game plays out the same, people are saying "Damn, what a game for Romo - he almost led his team past the mighty Broncos."

Manning had another great game, but statistically, Romo outperformed him. Manning also had a pick (which was much more of a gimme INT than Romo's) but no one's talking about that.
Did you miss the "You can't throw a pick inside of two minutes inside your 30 in a tie game" part?
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