All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Allen > Scheduling Case Study
12/9/2011 10:25 AM
North Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#2 UNC girt25 0-0 10-0 2-0 8-0 0-0 10-0 W10 18 111
#16 Virginia Tech aporter 0-0 10-0 4-0 6-0 0-0 10-0 W10 9 68
#9 Duke acn24 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 2-0 10-0 W10 21 127
#3 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 0-0 10-0 2-0 8-0 1-0 10-0 W10 39 198
#7 Virginia wang35 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 W10 7 65
#15 Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 0-0 9-1 1-1 8-0 0-1 9-1 W3 31 137
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#8 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 W10 11 76
#5 Florida St. hoosierchap 0-0 10-0 3-0 7-0 1-0 10-0 W10 5 61
#14 Wake Forest farmlife 0-0 10-0 6-0 4-0 0-0 10-0 W10 42 208
#12 Clemson kelby_03 0-0 10-0 7-0 3-0 1-0 10-0 W10 53 227
#1 Maryland viperhoops 0-0 10-0 2-0 8-0 1-0 10-0 W10 10 75
#6 Boston College brikeisco 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 W10 44 214
12/14/2011 10:42 AM (edited)

The ACC went 119-1 in nonconference play (OOC).  This is about as close to fulfilling my hypothesis as I think we're going to get.  My hypothesis is that if all teams go 10-0 in ooc, that nothing (ie a poor sos initally) will prevent any of them from securing a Top 25 SOS.  Scheduling to go 10-0 is not collusion as one suggested.  Agreeing to all go 8-8 in conference play would be.

While a lot is made about this conference in particular; its baseline prestige, recruiting money and overall dominance, I believe this type of result can be accomplished by any conference willing to stand up and try.  That any conference can get 12 to the NT if they follow the conference prescription and on an individual basis have 6 or so conference wins. 

There have been attempts at making mid-majors a super conference.  Most have failed for several reasons:

  • This type result requires 100% humans and that, quite frankly is the biggest challenge outside the Big 6 and in DII and DIII.  With 60-70% sims outside of the Big 6, it's a mammoth effort just to get 100% humans in a conference.
  • Even if there are 100% humans in a conference, not all have the same objective.  At least one or more will use that school as a stepping stone to some other school.
  • Even if 12 committed coaches are in for the long term, there will be some that don't row in the same direction as the rest.  There will be one that thinks going 8-2 with a tough schedule is better.  And when that projected 8-2 ends up to be 5-5, it's over.
  • Even if 12 committed coaches are in for the long term, the skill level of coaches isn't where it needs to be.  Coaches need to be able to win 10 OOC games--many cannot.
  • Finally, I think the other main reason why midmajor superconferenes don't work is because the coaches don't change their thought process as it relates to scheduling.  If it's going to work, a conference has to have dedicated coaches, but also a willingness and desire to row in the same direction--most do not because they aren't going to change or they just don't know a better way...

 

12/11/2011 11:17 AM (edited)

So let's broadly look at the numbers:  (I'll admit I'm a closet analytic and gladly let Cheese, Iguana or someone smarter than I run the hard numbers)

  • RPI is 25% W/L
  • 50% OWP
  • 25% OOWP

I am assuming 28 games prior to the selection of NT teams, not 26.  Roughly 65% of a team's schedule (18 of those games) are conference games.

The prevailing thought for most is that how they schedule their out of conference (OOC) games is the most important factor in their overall sos by season's end.  It is not.  How your conference mates schedule their OOC games is the biggest factor in one's SOS! 

And it's only the 10 OOC games that matter because after OOC play every conference is .500.  When Duke's win is UNC's loss for example, Maryland will still count both Dukes and UNCs OOC wins as their OWP, but it wouldn't really matter after that because at the end of the season conference play is a zero sum game.  I do acknowledge that if one division does much better than the other half, it will impact teams in those divisions differently. 
12/9/2011 4:04 PM (edited)

In this particular case, of the 119 wins (1 loss), 78 were scheduled against sims.  Factoring in 1.4 for road wins is another factor but still not as big as simply playing against teams that went 119-1 in ooc play.  That is becuause the 1.4 factor is only used on the 25% of RPI that is represent by a team's w%.  It doesn't factor into owp or oowp.

But here is the crux.  For example, 65% of Wake's OWP and 65% of their OOWP will come from inside the conference and directly from the OOC results of the other 11 teams since conference play is zero sum.  This will ring true for all teams.  OWP and OOWP will compound without regard to where those games were played.  Only Wake's 25% (W%) will factor in whether a game was at home or on the road.

Anyway, that is my hypothesis and I beleive under the above conditions, any conference could do what the ACC has done this season. 

Depending on how conference play goes, anyone with a 7 Conf. wins could get into the dance which therefore makes it possible for a conference to send all 12 teams to the NT.

12/9/2011 11:34 AM (edited)
After OOC play here is how conference SOS and RPI stack up:  I will review this after 1, 5, 10 games and after the conf tournament.  I will be noting the spread between the SOS figures and the spread between RPI figures as they compare to other conferences.  Interesting the ACCs current rank as far as SOS is 8th.  I would think that will end as #1.  And the gap between their RPI and the number 2 conference will drastically widen.  At least that is what I'm presuming.

Sorted by RPI
Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 119-1 .5153 .6346
2. Big 12 B+ 98-22 .5274 .6066
3. PAC 10 B+ 93-27 .5423 .6058
4. Big Ten A- 88-32 .5399 .5929
5. SEC B 77-43 .5145 .5463
6. Big East B- 68-52 .5237 .5400
7. Mountain West C- 63-57 .5348 .5209
8. WCC C- 55-65 .5133 .5024
9. Summit League D+ 59-61 .5083 .5006
10. Atlantic 10 C 61-59 .4952 .4913
11. Horizon D+ 55-65 .4971 .4827
12. Mid-Eastern D 52-68 .5007 .4818
13. Northeast D+ 57-63 .4848 .4805
14. Big Sky D+ 43-77 .5354 .4779
15. Conference USA D+ 61-59 .4771 .4766
16. Ohio Valley D+ 45-75 .5168 .4740
17. MAC D+ 60-60 .4724 .4737
18. Patriot League D+ 52-68 .4850 .4716
19. Missouri Valley D+ 52-68 .4875 .4715
20. Metro-Atlantic D 51-69 .4868 .4660
21. Southland D+ 51-69 .4728 .4643
22. Southern D 46-74 .4932 .4629
23. Big South D+ 50-70 .4761 .4591
24. Big West D+ 53-67 .4682 .4539
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 41-79 .4873 .4467
26. Sun Belt D 39-81 .4595 .4249
27. Ivy League D 31-89 .4847 .4246









Sorted by SOS
Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
3. PAC 10 B+ 93-27 .5423 .6058
4. Big Ten A- 88-32 .5399 .5929
14. Big Sky D+ 43-77 .5354 .4779
7. Mountain West C- 63-57 .5348 .5209
2. Big 12 B+ 98-22 .5274 .6066
6. Big East B- 68-52 .5237 .5400
16. Ohio Valley D+ 45-75 .5168 .4740
1. ACC A+ 119-1 .5153 .6346
5. SEC B 77-43 .5145 .5463
8. WCC C- 55-65 .5133 .5024
9. Summit League D+ 59-61 .5083 .5006
12. Mid-Eastern D 52-68 .5007 .4818
11. Horizon D+ 55-65 .4971 .4827
10. Atlantic 10 C 61-59 .4952 .4913
22. Southern D 46-74 .4932 .4629
19. Missouri Valley D+ 52-68 .4875 .4715
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 41-79 .4873 .4467
20. Metro-Atlantic D 51-69 .4868 .4660
18. Patriot League D+ 52-68 .4850 .4716
13. Northeast D+ 57-63 .4848 .4805
27. Ivy League D 31-89 .4847 .4246
15. Conference USA D+ 61-59 .4771 .4766
23. Big South D+ 50-70 .4761 .4591
21. Southland D+ 51-69 .4728 .4643
17. MAC D+ 60-60 .4724 .4737
24. Big West D+ 53-67 .4682 .4539
26. Sun Belt D 39-81 .4595 .4249

 
12/9/2011 11:50 AM (edited)
After OOC play, 4 of their teams have SOSs of 198 and above.  It is important to note that TWO teams that had the most humans on its schedule (7) had the fourth and third highest SOS at 198 and 208, respectively.  The highest (worst ) SOS was 227.

The reason why scheduling other good teams doesn't always translate into a strong SOS is that SOS is a simple formula.  If Team A schedules 10 brutal OOC games, it really doesn't matter how good those teams really are.  It really only matters what their records are.  For example if the 10 teams on that brutal schedule also schedule very, very , very hard OOC schedules and go 5-5 and plays in a tough conference, then the team that scheduled the brutal schedule isn't really better off.

The way the ACC scheduled is not unlike how the Big 6 teams schedule irl, especially in football.  But in basketball there are plenty of games against lower level teams (and they play those at home too).

It'll also be interesting to see how seble's new NT selection formula plays out.

Congrats to the ACC for not only going 119-1, but also providing a look at how the 18 conference games really impact RPI and SOS; And to provide a learning tool for others.  While it might end up hurting them in the long run as other coaches and conferences catch on as the only real way to compete at their level, I think it's a great teaching tool.     
12/10/2011 3:25 AM (edited)
Nice add Billy.  I'll also point out that there appears to be no other conference willing to stand up to the ACC.  Because as Jim Mora said once:  They just don't get it.  Publicly in their CC forums they are advising others to target an 8-2 OOC record.  The other BCS conferences in Allen look like this:   

The Pac 10 has 12 humans and is the next best conference.  Their 3 worst teams have 6-4 OOC record.
The Big 10 has 12 humans and has 5 teams at 5-5 or worse and 2 with losing records.
The SEC only has 11 humans!  And has 4 teams with losing records!
The Big Easy has 12 humans and 3 teams with 1-9 OOC records!
The Big 12 has 12 humans and also have 4 teams with losing records.  The Big 12 had the second most wins with 98. 

12/10/2011 3:33 AM (edited)
  • After 1 conference game.........The ACC has their worst night of the year going 6-6.
  • 7 teams now in the top 15 RPI slots (5 after OOC games).
  • 10 of 12 teams in the lock and 2 in the high bubble of NT projections
  • Worst individual RPI is 33 (they have only 2 in the 30s now whereas after OOC play the worst individual RPI was 53 and they had 5 teams higher than 30).
  •  Worst SOS is 166 whereas after OOC the worst was 227 and that was a different team.
  •  Conference SOS ranking has improved from 8th to 3rd.
  • Overall Conference RPI lead has increased from .028 to .0402 (an increase of 43%).  Big 12 still #2.


Nothing too surprising.

Last updated at 12/10/2011 2:37 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 125-7 .5523 .6558
2. Big 12 B+ 104-28 .5500 .6156
3. PAC 10 B+ 99-33 .5531 .6088
4. Big Ten A- 94-38 .5562 .5998
5. SEC B 83-49 .5234 .5480
6. Big East B- 74-58 .5302 .5416
7. Mountain West C- 69-63 .5330 .5192
8. WCC C- 61-71 .5102 .5014
9. Summit League D+ 65-67 .5039 .4979
10. Atlantic 10 C 67-65 .4966 .4922
11. Northeast D+ 63-69 .4889 .4842
12. Horizon D+ 61-71 .4927 .4806
13. Conference USA D+ 67-65 .4781 .4799
14. Mid-Eastern D 58-74 .4938 .4781
15. MAC D+ 66-66 .4716 .4726
16. Patriot League D+ 58-74 .4848 .4724
17. Big Sky D+ 49-83 .5187 .4693
18. Ohio Valley D+ 51-81 .5063 .4685
19. Metro-Atlantic D 57-75 .4851 .4678
20. Missouri Valley D+ 58-74 .4761 .4643
21. Southland D+ 57-75 .4707 .4631
22. Southern D 52-80 .4856 .4598
23. Big South D+ 56-76 .4728 .4579
24. Big West D+ 59-73 .4672 .4550
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 47-85 .4777 .4436
26. Sun Belt D 45-87 .4497 .4206
27. Ivy League D 37-95 .4711 .4183



...


 
North Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#7 Duke acn24 1-0 11-0 1-0 10-0 3-0 10-0 W11 15 73
#2 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 1-0 11-0 3-0 8-0 2-0 10-0 W11 28 166
#11 Virginia wang35 0-1 10-1 0-0 10-1 0-1 9-1 L1 10 46
#8 UNC girt25 0-1 10-1 2-0 8-1 0-1 9-1 L1 11 48
#23 Virginia Tech aporter 0-1 10-1 4-0 6-1 0-1 9-1 L1 8 36
#21 Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 0-1 9-2 1-1 8-1 0-2 8-2 L1 26 65
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#6 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 1-0 11-0 1-0 10-0 1-0 10-0 W11 2 38
#4 Florida St. hoosierchap 1-0 11-0 4-0 7-0 2-0 10-0 W11 7 49
#1 Maryland viperhoops 1-0 11-0 3-0 8-0 2-0 10-0 W11 3 39
#5 Boston College brikeisco 1-0 11-0 1-0 10-0 1-0 10-0 W11 22 133
#22 Wake Forest farmlife 0-1 10-1 6-0 4-1 0-1 9-1 L1 32 151
#16 Clemson kelby_03 0-1 10-1 7-0 3-1 1-1 9-1 L1 33 147



12/14/2011 3:03 AM (edited)

The next update will be after 5 games and then 10 games.  After 10 games I have observed that the drastic effect of compounding is reduced for some reason but we shall see.

QUICK UPDATE AFTER TWO CONFERENCE GAMES:
 

  • RPI gap now is .0470 between ACC and Big 12
  • ACC now has #1 SOS by .0038 (originally had 8th highest after OOC play)
  • Highest SOS for any of its members is 134.  Two others in the 100s at 107 and 110, respectively.
  • One RPI higher than 30 (WF is 34 and is 0-2 in the conference).
  • The North is 4-6 and the South is 7-5 which may end up playing a role...
  • It also apparent that the new postseason projection page has a lot of weight on overall record and quality wins.
12/14/2011 3:18 AM (edited)

Update after 5 conference dates:
 

  • One RPI in the 30s (WF is 1-4 and at 37)
  • Three SOS's in the 50s (50, 55 and 56).  After OOC play four were 198 or higher
  • Nine Locks, three bubbles on the projection report
  • RPI gap is now at .0489
  • SOS gap is .0252 with ACC #1.  At the end of OOC play the ACC was 8th and trailed #1 by -.0270
  • The North is 10-16 and the South is 18-12.





 

North Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#1 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 4-0 14-0 4-0 10-0 4-0 10-0 W14 15 56
#10 Duke acn24 2-2 12-2 2-0 10-2 3-2 8-2 W1 14 32
#13 Virginia wang35 2-3 12-3 2-1 10-2 2-3 7-3 L1 7 8
#11 UNC girt25 1-3 11-3 3-1 8-2 1-3 7-3 L1 12 7
Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 1-4 10-5 1-2 9-3 1-5 5-5 L3 23 13
Virginia Tech aporter 0-4 10-4 4-1 6-3 0-3 6-4 L4 22 15
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#2 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 5-0 15-0 3-0 12-0 4-0 10-0 W15 1 9
#3 Boston College brikeisco 4-1 14-1 3-0 11-1 4-1 9-1 W1 9 33
#7 Florida St. hoosierchap 3-2 13-2 5-0 8-2 4-2 8-2 L1 3 11
#6 Maryland viperhoops 3-2 13-2 5-1 8-1 4-2 8-2 W1 6 5
#21 Clemson kelby_03 2-3 12-3 8-1 4-2 2-3 7-3 W1 29 55
Wake Forest farmlife 1-4 11-4 7-2 4-2 0-4 6-4 L1 37 50
School Conf Coach Rank RPI SOS Record Home Away Neutral Last 10 NT Projection
1. N. Carolina St. ACC fmschwab 2 1 9 15-0 3-0 12-0 0-0 10-0 Lock
3. Georgia Tech ACC djbrewer0808 1 15 56 14-0 4-0 10-0 0-0 10-0 Lock
4. Maryland ACC viperhoops 6 6 5 13-2 5-1 8-1 0-0 8-2 Lock
7. Boston College ACC brikeisco 3 9 33 14-1 3-0 11-1 0-0 9-1 Lock
9. Florida St. ACC hoosierchap 7 3 11 13-2 5-0 8-2 0-0 8-2 Lock
10. Duke ACC acn24 10 14 32 12-2 2-0 10-2 0-0 8-2 Lock
13. UNC ACC girt25 11 12 7 11-3 3-1 8-2 0-0 7-3 Lock
20. Virginia ACC wang35 13 7 8 12-3 2-1 10-2 0-0 7-3 Lock
29. Clemson ACC kelby_03 21 29 55 12-3 8-1 4-2 0-0 7-3 Lock
31. Miami (FL) ACC kyle_lee7   23 13 10-5 1-2 9-3 0-0 5-5 Bubble
33. Virginia Tech ACC aporter   22 15 10-4 4-1 6-3 0-0 6-4 Bubble
36. Wake Forest ACC farmlife   37 50 11-4 7-2 4-2 0-0 6-4 Bubble

Sorted by RPI
 

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 147-29 .6069 .6718
2. Big 12 B+ 126-50 .5815 .6229
3. PAC 10 B+ 121-55 .5784 .6106
4. Big Ten A- 116-60 .5817 .6054
5. SEC B 105-71 .5391 .5513
6. Big East B- 96-80 .5276 .5372
7. Mountain West C- 91-85 .5286 .5174
8. WCC C- 83-93 .5102 .5027
9. Summit League D+ 87-89 .5025 .4983
10. Atlantic 10 C 89-87 .4998 .4965
11. Northeast D+ 85-91 .4864 .4829
12. Conference USA D+ 89-87 .4810 .4822
14. Horizon D+ 83-93 .4803 .4737
13. Mid-Eastern D 80-96 .4825 .4737
15. MAC D+ 88-88 .4688 .4719
16. Patriot League D+ 80-96 .4795 .4714
17. Missouri Valley D+ 80-96 .4822 .4713
18. Ohio Valley D+ 73-103 .4896 .4666
19. Metro-Atlantic D 79-97 .4770 .4659
20. Southland D+ 79-97 .4671 .4646
21. Big Sky D+ 71-105 .4972 .4640
22. Big West D+ 81-95 .4705 .4622
23. Southern D 74-102 .4730 .4578
24. Big South D+ 78-98 .4606 .4533
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 69-107 .4629 .4399
26. Sun Belt D 67-109 .4357 .4196
27. Ivy League D 59-117 .4498 .4170

Sorted by SOS
 

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 147-29 .6069 .6718
4. Big Ten A- 116-60 .5817 .6054
2. Big 12 B+ 126-50 .5815 .6229
3. PAC 10 B+ 121-55 .5784 .6106
5. SEC B 105-71 .5391 .5513
7. Mountain West C- 91-85 .5286 .5174
6. Big East B- 96-80 .5276 .5372
8. WCC C- 83-93 .5102 .5027
9. Summit League D+ 87-89 .5025 .4983
10. Atlantic 10 C 89-87 .4998 .4965
21. Big Sky D+ 71-105 .4972 .4640
18. Ohio Valley D+ 73-103 .4896 .4666
11. Northeast D+ 85-91 .4864 .4829
13. Mid-Eastern D 80-96 .4825 .4737
17. Missouri Valley D+ 80-96 .4822 .4713
12. Conference USA D+ 89-87 .4810 .4822
14. Horizon D+ 83-93 .4803 .4737
16. Patriot League D+ 80-96 .4795 .4714
19. Metro-Atlantic D 79-97 .4770 .4659
23. Southern D 74-102 .4730 .4578
22. Big West D+ 81-95 .4705 .4622
15. MAC D+ 88-88 .4688 .4719
20. Southland D+ 79-97 .4671 .4646
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 69-107 .4629 .4399
24. Big South D+ 78-98 .4606 .4533
27. Ivy League D 59-117 .4498 .4170
26. Sun Belt D 67-109 .4357 .4196










 

12/19/2011 9:50 AM (edited)

After 10 Conference Games

Projection Report

Conference:

  School Conf Coach Rank RPI SOS Record Home Away Neutral Last 10 NT Projection
3. N. Carolina St. ACC fmschwab 4 2 7 18-1 4-1 14-0 0-0 9-1 Lock
4. Boston College ACC brikeisco 1 1 13 19-1 6-0 13-1 0-0 9-1 Lock
5. Maryland ACC viperhoops 7 3 6 17-3 7-1 10-2 0-0 7-3 Lock
6. Georgia Tech ACC djbrewer0808 5 15 23 17-2 4-2 13-0 0-0 8-2 Lock
10. Florida St. ACC hoosierchap 9 8 9 16-3 7-1 9-2 0-0 7-3 Lock
12. Duke ACC acn24 15 12 11 15-4 3-1 12-3 0-0 6-4 Lock
15. UNC ACC girt25 17 10 3 14-5 5-2 9-3 0-0 5-5 Lock
25. Miami (FL) ACC kyle_lee7   17 5 13-7 4-3 9-4 0-0 4-6 Lock
34. Virginia ACC wang35   25 8 12-8 2-3 10-5 0-0 2-8 Bubble
35. Clemson ACC kelby_03   35 22 13-7 8-3 5-4 0-0 3-7 Bubble
41. Virginia Tech ACC aporter   36 17 11-8 5-3 6-5 0-0 2-8 Bubble
54. Wake Forest ACC farmlife   47 24 11-9 7-3 4-6 0-0 1-9 Bubble
North Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#5 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 7-2 17-2 4-2 13-0 7-2 8-2 W2 15 23
#15 Duke acn24 5-4 15-4 3-1 12-3 4-3 6-4 W1 12 11
#17 UNC girt25 4-5 14-5 5-2 9-3 2-4 5-5 W1 10 3
Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 4-6 13-7 4-3 9-4 2-7 4-6 L1 17 5
Virginia wang35 2-8 12-8 2-3 10-5 2-7 2-8 L6 25 8
Virginia Tech aporter 1-8 11-8 5-3 6-5 1-6 2-8 L4 36 17
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#1 Boston College brikeisco 9-1 19-1 6-0 13-1 7-1 9-1 W6 1 13
#4 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 8-1 18-1 4-1 14-0 4-1 9-1 W2 2 7
#7 Maryland viperhoops 7-3 17-3 7-1 10-2 6-3 7-3 W1 3 6
#9 Florida St. hoosierchap 6-3 16-3 7-1 9-2 5-3 7-3 L1 8 9
Clemson kelby_03 3-7 13-7 8-3 5-4 3-7 3-7 L1 35 22
Wake Forest farmlife 1-9 11-9 7-3 4-6 0-8 1-9 L6 47 24

RPI
Last updated at 12/19/2011 2:20 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 176-58 .6232 .6620
2. Big 12 B+ 155-79 .5934 .6181
3. PAC 10 B+ 150-84 .5834 .6020
4. Big Ten A- 145-89 .5864 .6009
5. SEC B 134-100 .5524 .5553
6. Big East B- 125-109 .5312 .5358
7. Mountain West C- 120-114 .5218 .5137
8. Atlantic 10 C 118-116 .5040 .4994
9. WCC C- 112-122 .5026 .4972
10. Summit League D+ 116-118 .4999 .4966
11. Northeast D+ 114-120 .4872 .4853
12. Conference USA D+ 118-116 .4806 .4828
13. Horizon D+ 112-122 .4841 .4793
14. MAC D+ 117-117 .4722 .4757
15. Patriot League D+ 109-125 .4754 .4738
16. Mid-Eastern D 109-125 .4770 .4720
17. Missouri Valley D+ 109-125 .4750 .4691
18. Ohio Valley D+ 102-132 .4840 .4681
19. Southland D+ 108-126 .4680 .4679
20. Metro-Atlantic D 108-126 .4736 .4664
21. Big West D+ 110-124 .4702 .4661
22. Big Sky D+ 100-134 .4847 .4624
23. Southern D 103-131 .4680 .4586
24. Big South D+ 107-127 .4601 .4571
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 98-136 .4572 .4432
26. Sun Belt D 96-138 .4366 .4289
27. Ivy League D 88-146 .4388 .4194


SOS Rankings

Last updated at 12/19/2011 2:20 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 176-58 .6232 .6620
2. Big 12 B+ 155-79 .5934 .6181
4. Big Ten A- 145-89 .5864 .6009
3. PAC 10 B+ 150-84 .5834 .6020
5. SEC B 134-100 .5524 .5553
6. Big East B- 125-109 .5312 .5358
7. Mountain West C- 120-114 .5218 .5137
8. Atlantic 10 C 118-116 .5040 .4994
9. WCC C- 112-122 .5026 .4972
10. Summit League D+ 116-118 .4999 .4966
11. Northeast D+ 114-120 .4872 .4853
22. Big Sky D+ 100-134 .4847 .4624
13. Horizon D+ 112-122 .4841 .4793
18. Ohio Valley D+ 102-132 .4840 .4681
12. Conference USA D+ 118-116 .4806 .4828
16. Mid-Eastern D 109-125 .4770 .4720
15. Patriot League D+ 109-125 .4754 .4738
17. Missouri Valley D+ 109-125 .4750 .4691
20. Metro-Atlantic D 108-126 .4736 .4664
14. MAC D+ 117-117 .4722 .4757
21. Big West D+ 110-124 .4702 .4661
23. Southern D 103-131 .4680 .4586
19. Southland D+ 108-126 .4680 .4679
24. Big South D+ 107-127 .4601 .4571
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 98-136 .4572 .4432
27. Ivy League D 88-146 .4388 .4194
26. Sun Belt D 96-138 .4366 .4289




xx
 
12/19/2011 10:52 AM (edited)
After 10 Conference games:
  • Highest Individual SOS 24 (WF).  Only 3 SOS's in the 20s (24, 23, 22).  Six SOS's at 9 or less.
  • RPI Gap is .0439.  This has actually been reduced.  Not totally surprised.  In looking at previous conference results in various worlds, I've noticed a peak where OOC games impact RPI gap at about 8 or so conference games but I don't know why that is or if it's correlated at all.  My guess is that as conference play continues and every night is a zero sum game, the overall winning percentage range for all conferences is much narrower now than after 1 conference game.  For example conferences that went 119-1 in OOC play have had 10 consecutive nights of .500, which is a major dropoff,  and conferences that went 60-60 continue to play .500 ball.  Percentage-wise  conference play is starting to outweigh ooc play in the formulas.  
  • SOS Gap is .0298.  This gap continues to widen.
  • Conference RPI is currently .6620 (The best conference RPI to date listed in the forums is .6502). 
  • The South is 34-24 in conference play; The North is 23-33.  RPIs 1, 2 and 3 are all in the South.
  • One thing that this will not test out is more balance within the conference.  There is still a bit of a gap between the top teams in the conference and the bottom 2 or 3, which is not uncommon in any conference.
  • Seeing these results, it only makes me more convinced that a balanced conference can get all 12 to the NT and that the most critical elememt of RPI is how the conference does in OOC play as a whole.  The bell cows in any conference will do fine.  But the middle of the road teams would struggle if it weren't for two things--their own success in OOC play and the success of their conference mates in OOC.  For example, UNC, who played 9 sims and started conference play with a 111 SOS is 4-5 in conference play with an RPI of 10.  I'm not saying that they aren't a top team, but what I am saying is that without being able to draw on a 119-1 OWP and OOWP or accomplishing a 10-0 OOC record themselves, their RPI would be much worse.  In other words, it really doens't prove that they are a good team--only that they are about a .500 team within their conference (based on their 4-5 record) as are many teams.  For instance if any other conference  went 119-1, their .500 conference teams would see similar results.  Under this (119-1 OOC) situation,  I believe that a conference record of 5-11 gets a team into the dance although it's possible that a 4-12 team might get in as well.  However the wins of the lower teams would have to come at the expense of the higher teams, not the middle of the road conference teams. 
12/27/2011 11:58 PM (edited)
After regular season:
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#3 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 13-3 23-3 7-3 16-0 10-3 8-2 W5 7 15
#13 UNC girt25 10-6 20-6 8-2 12-4 5-5 8-2 W6 2 1
#15 Duke acn24 9-7 19-7 6-2 13-5 6-5 6-4 L1 11 11
Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 6-10 15-11 6-4 9-7 3-9 5-5 L2 23 5
Virginia wang35 5-11 15-11 5-3 10-8 4-8 3-7 W1 24 10
Virginia Tech aporter 3-13 13-13 7-5 6-8 2-10 2-8 L1 35 9
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#5 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 13-3 23-3 6-2 17-1 7-3 7-3 W1 1 7
#8 Boston College brikeisco 11-5 21-5 7-1 14-4 7-4 6-4 W1 6 13
#9 Maryland viperhoops 10-6 20-6 9-1 11-5 8-4 6-4 L3 4 6
#20 Florida St. hoosierchap 8-8 18-8 9-2 9-6 6-7 4-6 L3 13 8
Clemson kelby_03 6-10 16-10 11-4 5-6 3-10 4-6 L1 33 19
Wake Forest farmlife 2-14 12-14 8-6 4-8 1-12 1-9 L2 70 18

School Conf Coach Rank RPI SOS Record Home Away Neutral Last 10 NT Projection
2. Georgia Tech ACC djbrewer0808 3 7 15 23-3 7-3 16-0 0-0 8-2 Lock
3. N. Carolina St. ACC fmschwab 5 1 7 23-3 6-2 17-1 0-0 7-3 Lock
5. Maryland ACC viperhoops 9 4 6 20-6 9-1 11-5 0-0 6-4 Lock
7. UNC ACC girt25 13 2 1 20-6 8-2 12-4 0-0 8-2 Lock
10. Boston College ACC brikeisco 8 6 13 21-5 7-1 14-4 0-0 6-4 Lock
13. Duke ACC acn24 15 11 11 19-7 6-2 13-5 0-0 6-4 Lock
16. Florida St. ACC hoosierchap 20 13 8 18-8 9-2 9-6 0-0 4-6 Lock
27. Miami (FL) ACC kyle_lee7   23 5 15-11 6-4 9-7 0-0 5-5 Lock
30. Virginia ACC wang35   24 10 15-11 5-3 10-8 0-0 3-7 Lock
31. Clemson ACC kelby_03   33 19 16-10 11-4 5-6 0-0 4-6 Bubble
39. Virginia Tech ACC aporter   35 9 13-13 7-5 6-8 0-0 2-8 Bubble
61. Wake Forest ACC farmlife   70 18 12-14 8-6 4-8 0-0 1-9 Bubble


Last updated at 12/27/2011 2:26 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 215-97 .6226 .6461
2. Big 12 B+ 194-118 .5867 .6022
3. Big Ten A- 184-128 .5814 .5904
4. PAC 10 B+ 189-123 .5762 .5872
5. SEC B 173-139 .5486 .5491
6. Big East B- 164-148 .5288 .5312
7. Mountain West C- 159-153 .5190 .5125
8. Atlantic 10 C 157-155 .5061 .5017
10. Summit League D+ 155-157 .4992 .4964
9. WCC C- 151-161 .4991 .4964
11. Northeast D+ 153-159 .4899 .4888
13. Horizon D+ 151-161 .4871 .4839
12. Conference USA D+ 157-155 .4852 .4868
21. Ohio Valley D+ 141-171 .4810 .4706
14. MAC D+ 156-156 .4798 .4811
15. Patriot League D+ 148-164 .4795 .4779
24. Big Sky D+ 139-173 .4784 .4644
16. Mid-Eastern D 148-164 .4783 .4749
19. Big West D+ 149-163 .4765 .4730
17. Missouri Valley D+ 148-164 .4758 .4742
20. Metro-Atlantic D 147-165 .4741 .4711
18. Southland D+ 147-165 .4719 .4732
23. Southern D 142-170 .4700 .4646
22. Big South D+ 146-166 .4652 .4648
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 137-175 .4562 .4500
26. Sun Belt D 135-177 .4429 .4395
27. Ivy League D 127-185 .4404 .4296

Last updated at 12/27/2011 2:26 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 215-97 .6226 .6461
2. Big 12 B+ 194-118 .5867 .6022
3. Big Ten A- 184-128 .5814 .5904
4. PAC 10 B+ 189-123 .5762 .5872
5. SEC B 173-139 .5486 .5491
6. Big East B- 164-148 .5288 .5312
7. Mountain West C- 159-153 .5190 .5125
8. Atlantic 10 C 157-155 .5061 .5017
9. WCC C- 151-161 .4991 .4964
10. Summit League D+ 155-157 .4992 .4964
11. Northeast D+ 153-159 .4899 .4888
12. Conference USA D+ 157-155 .4852 .4868
13. Horizon D+ 151-161 .4871 .4839
14. MAC D+ 156-156 .4798 .4811
15. Patriot League D+ 148-164 .4795 .4779
16. Mid-Eastern D 148-164 .4783 .4749
17. Missouri Valley D+ 148-164 .4758 .4742
18. Southland D+ 147-165 .4719 .4732
19. Big West D+ 149-163 .4765 .4730
20. Metro-Atlantic D 147-165 .4741 .4711
21. Ohio Valley D+ 141-171 .4810 .4706
22. Big South D+ 146-166 .4652 .4648
23. Southern D 142-170 .4700 .4646
24. Big Sky D+ 139-173 .4784 .4644
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 137-175 .4562 .4500
26. Sun Belt D 135-177 .4429 .4395
27. Ivy League D 127-185 .4404 .4296

 
12/31/2011 9:36 AM (edited)
North Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#4 Georgia Tech djbrewer0808 13-3 23-4 7-3 16-0 10-3 8-2 L1 11 17
#15 UNC girt25 10-6 22-7 8-2 12-4 7-6 8-2 L1 1 1
#10 Duke acn24 9-7 23-7 6-2 13-5 8-5 7-3 W4 7 11
Miami (FL) kyle_lee7 6-10 15-12 6-4 9-7 3-9 4-6 L3 25 6
Virginia wang35 5-11 17-12 5-3 10-8 6-9 5-5 L1 21 4
Virginia Tech aporter 3-13 13-14 7-5 6-8 2-11 2-8 L2 42 9
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#6 N. Carolina St. fmschwab 13-3 24-4 6-2 17-1 7-4 7-3 L1 2 8
#12 Boston College brikeisco 11-5 21-6 7-1 14-4 7-5 5-5 L1 9 15
#14 Maryland viperhoops 10-6 21-7 9-1 11-5 8-5 5-5 L1 5 7
#23 Florida St. hoosierchap 8-8 18-9 9-2 9-6 6-7 3-7 L4 19 10
Clemson kelby_03 6-10 17-11 11-4 5-6 3-11 5-5 L1 35 18
Wake Forest farmlife 2-14 12-15 8-6 4-8 1-13 1-9 L3 77 20


* The North went 8-5 in the CT and the South went 3-6. In the reg season, the North went 46-50 and the South went 50-46. All in all, pretty balanced where neither side of the conference would have benefited from a lopsided dominance.

Last updated at 12/31/2011 2:29 AM ET

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 226-108 .6211 .6411
2. Big 12 B+ 205-129 .5871 .5991
3. Big Ten A- 195-139 .5838 .5893
4. PAC 10 B+ 200-134 .5767 .5844
5. SEC B 184-150 .5520 .5495
6. Big East B- 175-159 .5335 .5326
7. Mountain West C- 170-164 .5197 .5124
8. Atlantic 10 C 168-166 .5119 .5046
9. WCC C- 162-172 .5027 .4982
10. Summit League D+ 166-168 .5006 .4968
11. Northeast D+ 164-170 .4934 .4909
12. Conference USA D+ 168-166 .4862 .4881
13. Horizon D+ 162-172 .4900 .4859
14. MAC D+ 167-167 .4830 .4828
15. Patriot League D+ 159-175 .4835 .4805
16. Missouri Valley D+ 159-175 .4816 .4779
17. Mid-Eastern D 159-175 .4798 .4764
18. Big West D+ 160-174 .4814 .4762
19. Southland D+ 158-176 .4761 .4757
20. Ohio Valley D+ 152-182 .4849 .4737
21. Metro-Atlantic D 158-176 .4764 .4729
22. Big South D+ 157-177 .4704 .4680
23. Southern D 153-181 .4730 .4672
24. Big Sky D+ 150-184 .4809 .4668
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 148-186 .4569 .4518
26. Sun Belt D 146-188 .4469 .4425
27. Ivy League D 138-196 .4446 .4338

Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. ACC A+ 226-108 .6211 .6411
2. Big 12 B+ 205-129 .5871 .5991
3. Big Ten A- 195-139 .5838 .5893
4. PAC 10 B+ 200-134 .5767 .5844
5. SEC B 184-150 .5520 .5495
6. Big East B- 175-159 .5335 .5326
7. Mountain West C- 170-164 .5197 .5124
8. Atlantic 10 C 168-166 .5119 .5046
9. WCC C- 162-172 .5027 .4982
10. Summit League D+ 166-168 .5006 .4968
11. Northeast D+ 164-170 .4934 .4909
13. Horizon D+ 162-172 .4900 .4859
12. Conference USA D+ 168-166 .4862 .4881
20. Ohio Valley D+ 152-182 .4849 .4737
15. Patriot League D+ 159-175 .4835 .4805
14. MAC D+ 167-167 .4830 .4828
16. Missouri Valley D+ 159-175 .4816 .4779
18. Big West D+ 160-174 .4814 .4762
24. Big Sky D+ 150-184 .4809 .4668
17. Mid-Eastern D 159-175 .4798 .4764
21. Metro-Atlantic D 158-176 .4764 .4729
19. Southland D+ 158-176 .4761 .4757
23. Southern D 153-181 .4730 .4672
22. Big South D+ 157-177 .4704 .4680
25. Colonial Athletic Association D+ 148-186 .4569 .4518
26. Sun Belt D 146-188 .4469 .4425
27. Ivy League D 138-196 .4446 .4338






 
12/9/2011 11:04 AM
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