The ACC went 119-1 in nonconference play (OOC).  This is about as close to fulfilling my hypothesis as I think we're going to get.  My hypothesis is that if all teams go 10-0 in ooc, that nothing (ie a poor sos initally) will prevent any of them from securing a Top 25 SOS.  Scheduling to go 10-0 is not collusion as one suggested.  Agreeing to all go 8-8 in conference play would be.

While a lot is made about this conference in particular; its baseline prestige, recruiting money and overall dominance, I believe this type of result can be accomplished by any conference willing to stand up and try.  That any conference can get 12 to the NT if they follow the conference prescription and on an individual basis have 6 or so conference wins. 

There have been attempts at making mid-majors a super conference.  Most have failed for several reasons:

• This type result requires 100% humans and that, quite frankly is the biggest challenge outside the Big 6 and in DII and DIII.  With 60-70% sims outside of the Big 6, it's a mammoth effort just to get 100% humans in a conference.
• Even if there are 100% humans in a conference, not all have the same objective.  At least one or more will use that school as a stepping stone to some other school.
• Even if 12 committed coaches are in for the long term, there will be some that don't row in the same direction as the rest.  There will be one that thinks going 8-2 with a tough schedule is better.  And when that projected 8-2 ends up to be 5-5, it's over.
• Even if 12 committed coaches are in for the long term, the skill level of coaches isn't where it needs to be.  Coaches need to be able to win 10 OOC games--many cannot.
• Finally, I think the other main reason why midmajor superconferenes don't work is because the coaches don't change their thought process as it relates to scheduling.  If it's going to work, a conference has to have dedicated coaches, but also a willingness and desire to row in the same direction--most do not because they aren't going to change or they just don't know a better way...

So let's broadly look at the numbers:  (I'll admit I'm a closet analytic and gladly let Cheese, Iguana or someone smarter than I run the hard numbers)

• RPI is 25% W/L
• 50% OWP
• 25% OOWP

In this particular case, of the 119 wins (1 loss), 78 were scheduled against sims.  Factoring in 1.4 for road wins is another factor but still not as big as simply playing against teams that went 119-1 in ooc play.  That is becuause the 1.4 factor is only used on the 25% of RPI that is represent by a team's w%.  It doesn't factor into owp or oowp.

But here is the crux.  For example, 65% of Wake's OWP and 65% of their OOWP will come from inside the conference and directly from the OOC results of the other 11 teams since conference play is zero sum.  This will ring true for all teams.  OWP and OOWP will compound without regard to where those games were played.  Only Wake's 25% (W%) will factor in whether a game was at home or on the road.

Anyway, that is my hypothesis and I beleive under the above conditions, any conference could do what the ACC has done this season. 

Depending on how conference play goes, anyone with a 7 Conf. wins could get into the dance which therefore makes it possible for a conference to send all 12 teams to the NT.

• After 1 conference game.........The ACC has their worst night of the year going 6-6.
• 7 teams now in the top 15 RPI slots (5 after OOC games).
• 10 of 12 teams in the lock and 2 in the high bubble of NT projections
• Worst individual RPI is 33 (they have only 2 in the 30s now whereas after OOC play the worst individual RPI was 53 and they had 5 teams higher than 30).
•  Worst SOS is 166 whereas after OOC the worst was 227 and that was a different team.
•  Conference SOS ranking has improved from 8th to 3rd.
• Overall Conference RPI lead has increased from .028 to .0402 (an increase of 43%).  Big 12 still #2.

Last updated at 12/10/2011 2:37 AM ET

The next update will be after 5 games and then 10 games.  After 10 games I have observed that the drastic effect of compounding is reduced for some reason but we shall see.

QUICK UPDATE AFTER TWO CONFERENCE GAMES:
 

• RPI gap now is .0470 between ACC and Big 12
• ACC now has #1 SOS by .0038 (originally had 8th highest after OOC play)
• Highest SOS for any of its members is 134.  Two others in the 100s at 107 and 110, respectively.
• One RPI higher than 30 (WF is 34 and is 0-2 in the conference).
• The North is 4-6 and the South is 7-5 which may end up playing a role...
• It also apparent that the new postseason projection page has a lot of weight on overall record and quality wins.

Update after 5 conference dates:
 

• One RPI in the 30s (WF is 1-4 and at 37)
• Three SOS's in the 50s (50, 55 and 56).  After OOC play four were 198 or higher
• Nine Locks, three bubbles on the projection report
• RPI gap is now at .0489
• SOS gap is .0252 with ACC #1.  At the end of OOC play the ACC was 8th and trailed #1 by -.0270
• The North is 10-16 and the South is 18-12.

Sorted by RPI
 

Sorted by SOS
 

After 10 Conference Games

Projection Report

Conference:

RPI
Last updated at 12/19/2011 2:20 AM ET

• Highest Individual SOS 24 (WF).  Only 3 SOS's in the 20s (24, 23, 22).  Six SOS's at 9 or less.
• RPI Gap is .0439.  This has actually been reduced.  Not totally surprised.  In looking at previous conference results in various worlds, I've noticed a peak where OOC games impact RPI gap at about 8 or so conference games but I don't know why that is or if it's correlated at all.  My guess is that as conference play continues and every night is a zero sum game, the overall winning percentage range for all conferences is much narrower now than after 1 conference game.  For example conferences that went 119-1 in OOC play have had 10 consecutive nights of .500, which is a major dropoff,  and conferences that went 60-60 continue to play .500 ball.  Percentage-wise  conference play is starting to outweigh ooc play in the formulas.  
• SOS Gap is .0298.  This gap continues to widen.
• Conference RPI is currently .6620 (The best conference RPI to date listed in the forums is .6502). 
• The South is 34-24 in conference play; The North is 23-33.  RPIs 1, 2 and 3 are all in the South.
• One thing that this will not test out is more balance within the conference.  There is still a bit of a gap between the top teams in the conference and the bottom 2 or 3, which is not uncommon in any conference.
• Seeing these results, it only makes me more convinced that a balanced conference can get all 12 to the NT and that the most critical elememt of RPI is how the conference does in OOC play as a whole.  The bell cows in any conference will do fine.  But the middle of the road teams would struggle if it weren't for two things--their own success in OOC play and the success of their conference mates in OOC.  For example, UNC, who played 9 sims and started conference play with a 111 SOS is 4-5 in conference play with an RPI of 10.  I'm not saying that they aren't a top team, but what I am saying is that without being able to draw on a 119-1 OWP and OOWP or accomplishing a 10-0 OOC record themselves, their RPI would be much worse.  In other words, it really doens't prove that they are a good team--only that they are about a .500 team within their conference (based on their 4-5 record) as are many teams.  For instance if any other conference  went 119-1, their .500 conference teams would see similar results.  Under this (119-1 OOC) situation,  I believe that a conference record of 5-11 gets a team into the dance although it's possible that a 4-12 team might get in as well.  However the wins of the lower teams would have to come at the expense of the higher teams, not the middle of the road conference teams. 

Last updated at 12/27/2011 2:26 AM ET

Last updated at 12/31/2011 2:29 AM ET