All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > More Career Wins Tebow or Vince Young?
12/29/2011 2:24 PM
They aren't.

Because there will be several games every season that you need to put points on the board quickly (bad day for your D, turnovers, facing a high-powered offense, etc).  If you can't do it, those games become automatic losses (unless we're counting on 5-6 Tebow miracle games/season).
12/29/2011 2:59 PM
Please explain that passing yards aren't the most important stat to eschwartz.

None of those games may occur in the playoffs.  I bet more than one team has had a 4 game stretch where they weren't trailing by 12+ going into the 4th quarter.
12/29/2011 4:06 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/29/2011 2:16:00 PM (view original):
Good point.   So why are passing yards the most important stat(which is what E claimed in another thread)?    And why does Denver's less than stellar passing game doom them to mediocrity(which he claimed in this thread)?
I never said that passing yards were the most important stat.  I just showed PROOF that the 10 teams with the most passing yards were in all cases but 2 in postseason.  80% correlation.  Teams in the top 10 in rushing were nowhere near that level.  And why that is the case???  I DONT KNOW.  I just saw the correlation and pointed it out. 

Why does Denver's less than stellar passing game doom them to mediocrity??  WHY???  Because their defense was playing OUT OF ITS MIND for 2 months and allowed the 5th fewest PPG in the NFL during the first 8 games Tebow started (which included 45 to the Lions & 32 to Minnesota), the rushing game was ranked #1 in the NFL and Denver STILL struggled to win games.  If the defense averaged 18 PPG allowed instead of 35, while Orton was the QB, I bet Orton would have had a lot more wins.
12/29/2011 4:30 PM
There are many factors, E.  Look at NE and GB - phenomenal passing teams, but their defenses will be a liability in the playoffs. A good defense is key for all teams. Very few teams win it all with a terrible defense.

So to act like the Broncos are the only team that benefits from good defense is ridiculous. Tebow's not Brady, or Rodgers, etc...but Denver's wins (and losses) have been total team efforts.  They've given up 40+ points 4 times this season - only last week's would I say was largely Tebow's fault. He didn't even play in the GB game, save for one snap.  The defense, Prater, McGahee AND Tebow have all been big time contributors this season.
12/29/2011 5:11 PM
I agree.  There are many factors.  I just thought it was significant that 8 of the top 10 teams in passing yards were in postseason.  It used to be that teams who ran and could stop the run were at a distinct advantage, JT.  It doesnt seem that way any more.  The rule changes and the roster changes with more speed than power have made the teams with the Brady's, Brees's, Manning's, Rodgers's now holding the distinct advantage.  It used to be the Steelers in the 70s, Giants & Bears in the 80s and the Cowboys in the 90s.  The Cowboys could throw as well, but they were the best running team, and could shut down the run.  That isnt necessary anymore in todays game to the same extent.  Not if 8 of the top 10 passing yardage teams are in postseason, and the number 1 & 2 teams (N.O. & G.B.) are the 2 favorites to win the Super Bowl.
12/29/2011 5:13 PM
I also didnt say that the Broncos were the only team to benefit from good defense.  But within the Bronco season, only Tebow benefitted from it.  The Denver defense was putrid while Orton was at the helm.  For whatever reason it was that it changed....  it changed.  The Broncos played defense at a whole different level for the games in which Tebow started.  My statement was that if Orton was afforded the same defense that Tebow was given, he would have been better than 1-4
12/29/2011 5:55 PM
I think the key phrase in what you said is "teams who ran and could stop the run".  Teams with good defenses (Ravens, Steelers and, surprisingly, the Texans this season) can get away with running a lot because their defenses also hold other teams. Teams with bad defenses are forced to pass more, so you're either going to get teams like GB and NE, who do it well and rack up points in a hurry, or teams who turn the ball over a lot or have a lot of 3 and outs trying to play catch up.

No question that passing is the quickest way to score points, but running can still be effective if other facets of the game are working with it.
12/29/2011 6:00 PM
As for the defense...I think it's more a question of the teams they played. They gave up 23 to the Raiders with Orton at the helm and lost, 24 to the Raiders with Tebow and won. They held Miami, Chicago, KC and the Jets down for Tebow (not exactly power houses on offense), but didn't do well against Buffalo, Detroit, NE or Minnesota.  Tebow may have actually won the Minny game for them. 

Tebow has had 10 starts...the defense played great in 5, okay in 2 and terrible in 3. I would say Orton got good defense in 2 (Tennessee, Cincy), okay in 2 (Oakland and SD) and terrible in 1 (GB). The SD game is up for debate as to how bad you think the defense actually was in that game.
12/29/2011 6:13 PM
That all is true.  My point was that in Tebow's wins, the defense allowed very few points (other than the Minnesota game).  Even the 24 in Oakland wasn't a bad performance as the defense got 3 interceptions and the special teams had a TD on a punt return.  In that Raider game, Tebow completed 10 passes for 124 yards.  It's not like he was the reason they won.  Without the 3 interceptions, and the punt return for a TD, the Broncos would have had a tough time winning that game.
12/29/2011 6:26 PM
True, but my point is the defense held opponents for Orton too. That season opener against Oakland was a sloppy game all around, but the Broncos could easily have won it. Orton didn't play well and had a costly late fumble. Is it all on him? No, but he had the chance to win that game. The Tennesse game was another one I felt they let get away, though playcalling was a bigger issue in that one, as far as I'm concerned.

I just think overall, things have been clicking better since Tebow took over. If the offense is off, the defense steps up, and vice versa (the Minnesota game). And when they have a bad game (Detroit, NE), everyone seems to get it out of their system at once.

I have a really good feeling about this week though. Tebow, for his career (including college), has almost always done well in high-pressure games.
12/29/2011 6:45 PM
Posted by eschwartz67 on 12/29/2011 4:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/29/2011 2:16:00 PM (view original):
Good point.   So why are passing yards the most important stat(which is what E claimed in another thread)?    And why does Denver's less than stellar passing game doom them to mediocrity(which he claimed in this thread)?
I never said that passing yards were the most important stat.  I just showed PROOF that the 10 teams with the most passing yards were in all cases but 2 in postseason.  80% correlation.  Teams in the top 10 in rushing were nowhere near that level.  And why that is the case???  I DONT KNOW.  I just saw the correlation and pointed it out. 

Why does Denver's less than stellar passing game doom them to mediocrity??  WHY???  Because their defense was playing OUT OF ITS MIND for 2 months and allowed the 5th fewest PPG in the NFL during the first 8 games Tebow started (which included 45 to the Lions & 32 to Minnesota), the rushing game was ranked #1 in the NFL and Denver STILL struggled to win games.  If the defense averaged 18 PPG allowed instead of 35, while Orton was the QB, I bet Orton would have had a lot more wins.
It was 70% as you were counting SD.   It was 80% with my suggestion that turnover differential was more important.   Nonetheless, we said we'd check at season's end. 

Kick return for a TD.  Defensive score.  Denver up 14-0 before Tebow sees the field.  Fox controls the clock.  Denver wins.    There was once a very bad offensive team led by Trent Dilfer.  I think they went 6 games without scoring an offensive TD.   Won the Super Bowl.   Remember them?
12/29/2011 7:04 PM
Very different defense in a very different league. Back then, Ray Lewis could decapitate a receiver coming over the middle and it was called a good play.
12/29/2011 7:09 PM
I'm quite sure the number of decapitations has a lot less to do with good defense than sound scheme, good execution and solid tackling.    That has never changed.   It's why a guy like Revis isn't thrown at much like Sanders wasn't thrown on.  Why guys like Urlacher make a ton of tackles.  
12/29/2011 7:22 PM
It had everything to do with the rules. Defenses can't dominate in the NFL the way they used to.
12/29/2011 7:37 PM
So shutdown corners don't exist?  Nobody makes 100 tackles anymore?
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