Posted by Jtpsops on 4/10/2014 12:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 4/10/2014 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 4/9/2014 11:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 4/9/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.
You lost any shred of credibility you may have had when you said you'd take Kazmir over Tillman.
Moron.
Kazmir is a pretty special pitcher when healthy. If rather have him.
He was healthy last season. 29 starts, 150 IP, 10-9, 1.32 WHIP. Ya, that's pretty special. I'd much rather have that over Tillman's 33 starts, 200 IP, 16-7 and 1.22 WHIP.
I won't even bother mentioning Tillman's hitter friendly ballpark or tougher competition.
Tillman definitely had (has) the durability/innings advantage. The fact that Kazmir only pitched 158 innings is a big negative. But his K rate was over 9 and his walk rate was 2.68. He had a league average strand rate but allowed a BABIP of .324. It's likely that he was unlucky and, assuming he maintains his peripherals, lowers his ERA this year.
On the other hand, Tillman only k'd 7.8 per nine and walked 3 batters per nine. His BABIP allowed was below average at .269 and his strand rate was 10% higher than league average. It's likely that, baring a permanent increase in velocity (and K's), Tillman's ERA will go up this year.
The innings difference closes the gap somewhat but, even with 50 more IP, Kazmir had a higher 2013 WAR (fangraphs) than Tillman.