10/22/2012 7:10 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/22/2012 6:42:00 PM (view original):
Drese was crazy bad out there.   That's a bit odd.
Yeah, I know. Would you run him out there again next year on a contending team? If his defense regresses to the mean (in a good way), is he passable? Is his hitting even good enough to warrant his poor (but not that poor) defense?
10/22/2012 7:36 PM

I'd expect him to be better over the long haul.   Whether or not it's a good risk is determined by your other options.  A "normal" RF who can OPS .750 would seem to be a better option, IMO.   Drese only slugged .418 so his OPS was all tied up in eye.   I'd want a slugger out there to make up for the potential defensive shortfalls.  Of course, you may have a team with a low OBP that would make him extremely valuable.  All depends on your team. 

11/13/2012 12:14 PM
In Scottsdale:

 

 

inn

po

A

e

Plus

neg

Total

PPPS

Jeff Dreifort

RF

633.1

89

5

3

2

1

0.145

211.9

Omar Flores

RF

15

2

0

0

0

0

0.133

194.4

 

 

648.1

91

5

3

2

1

0.145

211.5

Alexei Martinez

RF

714.2

101

4

5

0

14

0.120

175.6

Juan Ferrer

RF

106.2

12

2

0

0

2

0.113

164.7

 

 

820.4

113

6

5

0

16

0.119

174.2


I felt like Martinez and Ferrer, C-types, were hurting me more than I expected but the numbers don't bear that out.   They'd have cost me less than 1 PP every 4 games.    And they were my 2nd/3rd best hitters.

11/13/2012 2:52 PM
To add to mikes arguement, I would have thought that the following player would have owned RF for the season and I set my outfield up for a 80's blue jays type threesome.  Heres what they did.  I might consider starting my DH in RF this season for the better bat after this thread.


Player                              POS          INN          PO          A          E          DP          +          -          Fld%          RF          RNG     GLV     ARM     ACC       AVG   OBP    SLG
Javier Delgado               RF            1043        180        3           1          0             6          0         .995            1.58       72          68       79         75          .278    .344    .378
Lawrence Ward              CF            1164.1     245        16         8         1             0          10       .970            2.02       76          74       80         73          .234    .326    .335
Juan Morales                  LF             1203.2     282       6           1          0             16        1         .997            2.15       73          74       75         80          .273    .338    .408

I'll submit based on the evidence that mike submitted, I could have played Delgado in LF, Morales in CF or at least platooned in CF and stuck a good hitting
light PC catcher in right and have not given up enough to cost me games.  In fact I woud have thought that I would have more assists from RF dur to the arm and accuracy. There just isn't enough of a difference ratings wise to not see delgado with 5 to 8 assists.

11/13/2012 3:00 PM
BTW Morales won the GG in LF last season.  I agree with mike that if I get 1.35 to 1.4 range factor I can live with giving up 40 or so more hits and minus plays over the course of a season, also I think gb/fb rates have a lot to do with how much pain you can expect in the field.  A bunch of worm burning pitchers will help mitigate any negatives in range and glove for a RF.  All of you are also showing your age in terms of RL guys your citing.  What about Rob Deer, the ultimate risk reward guy?  Best guess his range would be a 30 to 40, glove only about a 50, but his arm would be 100 and accuracy would be in the 90's.  He also might be the have been a 100 / 0  power / eye guy at the plate.
11/13/2012 3:23 PM

To keep the RL string going a bit, before I get slobberknockered by the HBD vets who have a better idea of the game.

He's a contrast, using Dave Kingman and Jessie Barfield, both RF, you would never confuse one for the other and I think for most casual baseball fans would have to admit that they would chose 99% of the time the fleet Barfield over the Immobile Kingman (as a Met in RF).  Here is their best season based on WAR.
 
Barfiled    1986 WAR 7.3  .289 / .368 / .559  40 HR 107 R 108 RBI +++ DEF 1408 inn 391 chances 368 po 20 asst 3 e 8 dp .992 fld 2.48 rng fact (GG and SS)
Kingman 1976 WAR 2.4  .238 / .286 / .506   37 HR 70 R  86 RBI  +++ DEF   907.2 inn 212 chances 194 ps 10 asst 8 e 0 dp .962 fld 1.92 rng fact

I submit that of course Barfields season was significantly better, but assuming all of our teams don't have three AS level players I submit that mike's take is correct, I would have moved barfield to left, and used kingman in right, the range factor is negliable over the course of a season, and could be mitigated by a late inning sub when in the lead.  Kingmans lack of mobility (albiet with about 10 fewer starts in right) would contribute to lower chances.  But HBD doesn't allow for real shifts in fielding and the kind of Tampa Bay Rays defensive moves to be simulated in the game. 

I like to think that yes there is an ebb and flow component to the game that allows a guy to go on an extended hot streak, but I know each at bat is a single calculation regardless of the  situation on the bases and who is in the field.  You can wax romantic about the game all you like but it still comes down to:  Calculation result hit or out, then apply variables for baserunners etc.

11/13/2012 4:17 PM
I think you get a little off-center when you try to compare RL to HBD.   Putting Mike Piazza in RF would have been a pitcher's nightmare.    While he was a bit of a buffoon at 1B, that's the obvious RL choice.   Not so in HBD.   HBD C rack up negative plays at 1B at alarming rates because he has so many opportunities.  As I've posted over and over again, a GG-type RF will get 260-270 positive plays per season while the average guy will get 210-220.   If you only lose 40 outs by putting a masher out there, I think it's a win.
11/14/2012 10:00 AM
I Agree with you, until (and I don't expect it) HBD has its ball in play engine upgraded to reflect additional options, then I would agree the loss of outs is more then made up for if you put a better more productive hitter into that role.

For the lack of range / glove to have an effect you would have to have 'real time' control of positioning during a game and thats just not part of the software.
1/30/2013 1:42 PM
Bump for biglick.
2/1/2013 2:38 PM
Did HBD get the jump on us?

Here's my C/RF:  ClaytonRollins

Last year in 645 RF innings, he had a .979 %, 1.35 RF and 5  minus plays.
This year, in 376 innings, he had a .902 %, 1.10 RF and 4 minus plays. 

Did the game get tweaked?
2/1/2013 2:45 PM
Posted by moethedog on 2/1/2013 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Did HBD get the jump on us?

Here's my C/RF:  ClaytonRollins

Last year in 645 RF innings, he had a .979 %, 1.35 RF and 5  minus plays.
This year, in 376 innings, he had a .902 %, 1.10 RF and 4 minus plays. 

Did the game get tweaked?
Interesting, thanks. keep us posted
2/1/2013 2:58 PM
I don't think so.   Martinez and Ferrer are C-types:

 

 

inn

po

A

e

Plus

neg

Total

PPPS

 

Alexei Martinez

RF

775.1

126

5

6

0

11

0.147

214.4

S27

Jeff Dreifort

RF

182

31

0

0

2

0

0.181

264.4

S27

Juan Ferrer

RF

200.2

28

1

0

0

5

0.120

174.8

S27

Alexei Martinez

RF

714.2

101

4

5

0

14

0.120

175.6

S26

Jeff Dreifort

RF

633.1

89

5

3

2

1

0.145

211.9

S26

Juan Ferrer

RF

106.2

12

2

0

0

2

0.113

164.7

S26

2/1/2013 3:00 PM
For those who don't understand that, Martinez is making 40 more positive plays, Dreifort(a normal RF) is making 50 and Ferrer 10.  Percentage-wise, they're about the same as last season. 
2/13/2013 2:21 PM
Bump, for Arfy
4/26/2013 10:37 AM
Probably the most extensive use of C in RF for me.     Cost almost 100 positive plays in RF:

 

 

inn

po

A

e

Plus

neg

Total

PPPS

Roy Branson

RF

145

23

1

0

0

0

0.166

241.3

Randall Baker *

RF

3

1

0

0

0

0

0.333

486.0

Jose Polonia

RF

1

0

0

0

0

0

0.000

0.0

Quilvio Salvador

RF

132.2

21

1

0

1

0

0.174

253.7

 

 

281.2

45

2

0

1

0

0.171

248.9

Kevin Ryu

RF

699.1

89

4

8

0

12

0.104

152.2

Kenneth Simpson

RF

480.2

57

2

1

0

8

0.104

151.8

 

 

1179

146

6

9

0

20

0.104

152.1


Ryu led my team(Lost LCS in 7) in RC27 by .47 so I think he was worth it.   Simpson had an off year so he was not.
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