All Forums > Speed vs Catcher's Arm
5/31/2012 1:39 PM
I have a guy with 95 speed. He has 3 SB in 7 attempts. 4 CS for math majors.

3 of the times he's been picked off has been against Catchers with arms below C+. I know law of averages and that it's early in the season, but come on. I feel like 95 speed should win most head to heads against below average (B?) arms.
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5/31/2012 4:24 PM
Okay, thanks. That's good to know.

Then why give guys a speed rating in the first place?

5/31/2012 5:24 PM (edited)
For other base-running. For example going from first to third on a single. And while it does not seem to affect fielding, though others here will know better,  the SIM will default the OF with the highest speed rating to Centerfield. Though I am not aware that it affects range per se, so it may be pointless there.

But certainly it can make some difference for the offense, even without base stealing, and may be a good reason to put  "Hit and Run"on the "Aggressive" setting. Often in the box score summary when you have fast runners you read that they slid in safely under the tag. Though I have not seen this quantified anywhere.

But the other posters here are correct - what really matters for base-stealing is first the SB/CS ratio, which you can search for in the draft center, and second the number of attempts. For example, 20 SB is fairly meaningless: you will find a slew of deadball era players with 30 SB and you think Wow ! and then find that they were caught stealing 29 times. You need at least a 67% rate of safely stealing out of attempts for base-stealing not to be counter-productive. And you want to search higher than that, at least 70% at a minimum.

But of course two players with the same SB/CS percentage (and speed rating) may be very different in reality: player A stole 4 bases in 6 attempts, which is a very low sample size, so the percentage is not that meaningful; while player B stole 44 bases in 22 attempts, which give you a much better idea of how good a base stealer they are.

5/31/2012 6:01 PM
Posted by italyprof on 5/31/2012 5:24:00 PM (view original):
For other base-running. For example going from first to third on a single. And while it does not seem to affect fielding, though others here will know better,  the SIM will default the OF with the highest speed rating to Centerfield. Though I am not aware that it affects range per se, so it may be pointless there.

But certainly it can make some difference for the offense, even without base stealing, and may be a good reason to put  "Hit and Run"on the "Aggressive" setting. Often in the box score summary when you have fast runners you read that they slid in safely under the tag. Though I have not seen this quantified anywhere.

But the other posters here are correct - what really matters for base-stealing is first the SB/CS ratio, which you can search for in the draft center, and second the number of attempts. For example, 20 SB is fairly meaningless: you will find a slew of deadball era players with 30 SB and you think Wow ! and then find that they were caught stealing 29 times. You need at least a 67% rate of safely stealing out of attempts for base-stealing not to be counter-productive. And you want to search higher than that, at least 70% at a minimum.

But of course two players with the same SB/CS percentage (and speed rating) may be very different in reality: player A stole 4 bases in 6 attempts, which is a very low sample size, so the percentage is not that meaningful; while player B stole 44 bases in 22 attempts, which give you a much better idea of how good a base stealer they are.

Who is this guy who can steal 44 bases in 22 attempts? I want to draft him!
5/31/2012 6:46 PM
Oops ! I meant in 66 attempts, that is with 22 CS. Thanks for pointing out what otherwise would be a cookie that would send Vince Coleman to play winter ball in Japan!
6/1/2012 11:58 AM
Speaking of Vince Coleman...I had an interesting game with him recently.  One hit, no walks, no hbp...7 steals off of Ivan Rodriguez.  One steal was of home, and another was of third and Pudge threw the ball into left field allowing Coleman to score.

Fun game!

6/1/2012 3:00 PM
Speed is primary factor in GIDP.
6/1/2012 6:43 PM
Fair enough. I probably realized base running before asking.

In light of this, my 95 speed rated lead off man (60% SB/SBA) was caught by a Catcher with a D- arm (caught 20% of baserunners).

Horse ****.
6/1/2012 6:43 PM
now I know 60% isn't amazing, but a D- and 20% CS rate? I mean, come on! That's stupid.
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6/2/2012 1:55 PM
What's stupid is how often I've been thrown out against bad arms. Whatever. I know the it'll probably even out, but I felt like venting.
6/3/2012 12:20 AM
Try looking at it this way: just as a horrible RL pitcher can get lucky and throw a few shutout innings on any given day, a bad armed catcher can likewise get lucky and throw out a fast and generally successful basestealer.  It happens!!!! So accept it.
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6/3/2012 6:13 PM
Right, my mistake for drafting him at 60%. I get that.

While on the subject of things not going my way...

My hit and run is set to VERY AGGRESSIVE. My lead off hitter walks to start a game. My number 2 hitter (high contact) hits into a double play. Not hit and run attempt.

In my opinion, should THAT VERY SITUATION always be a hit and run?
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All Forums > Speed vs Catcher's Arm

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