11/18/2012 12:29 AM (edited)

UPDATE: Saturday 11/17 at 11:05 PM

Matt Barkley has a separated shoulder according to CBS Los Angeles:

So if this is accurate can USC beat ND without him?

If they do, then Crave was correct with his "Ohio State could potentially be the only team without a loss after everything is all said and done" comment.

In other news:

How far does Kansas St fall? Losing by 28 to a .500 Baylor? I'd say pretty darn far.
They are out of the conversation now IMO.

How far does Oregon fall? Losing by 3 in OT to a very good Stanford team, they may not fall very much at all.
IMO they are probably still 3 or 4.

More interesting tidbits:

Stanford heads to UCLA next week.
If I am correct, I believe a Stanford win results in a rematch for the PAC 12 CG. A win by UCLA means Oregon would host UCLA.

Similar to another game today as Tulsa beat UCF to win the right to host them again for the CONUSA title game.

Additionally North Carolina, with their win over Virginia on Thursday now only needs to beat Maryland (and Miami to beat Duke) and they win the ACC Coastal division title.

An exciting week for the MAC:
Kent St beat Bowliing Green in a battle to decide the MAC East, while N Illinois beat Toledo in the same scenario for the MAC West.
11/18/2012 12:47 AM
I think ORE will fall behind ND, Bama, GA, and FLA.

If ND loses, I think FLA is a strong 'dark horse' candidate to get in the NC game (assuming they get past FSU), against the SEC winner. While that will surely **** people off, it's the same as Bama last year--a 1-loss team that didn't even make it to the SEC Championship. A ND loss blows it open for a lot of teams (Big12 winner, Pac12 winner) to see who will play the SEC champ, but FLA has strong computer rankings (likely #2 this week, behind only ND). Human voters may sway their votes to discourage that, but it seems plausible to me.
11/18/2012 12:57 AM (edited)
Also consider Stanford.

They have 2 losses I know, but if you remember their OT loss in South Bend, they were robbed of the touchdown that would have gave them a chance in 2OT.
If they would have won, ND would be at 10-1.

Stanford would also be at 10-1, and IMO would have easily been top 5 entering today's game.
They'd be playing for a chance to get into the National Championship game next week, instead of just trying to make the Rose.

11/18/2012 12:56 AM
Also, I don't think Barkley being out changes my outlook on the USC/ND game, which is a crapshoot in my eyes. All USC does is throw to Lee/Woods every other play, and their backup can do that just fine. Barkley would have been guaranteed to turn the ball over at least twice, so a mistake or two by the backup will be normal. I think USC may be able to hang in there, get a few big plays on offense, and pull it out. I see it 60%/40% ND.
11/18/2012 12:58 AM
Think K-State drops to 8th, Oregon to 6th. Rooting for K-State to lose to Texas, which would give Oklahoma the Big 12 Title if they win out.

With Barkley out, ND gets an easy win over USC. Georgia and Alabama get easy wins and play for a BCS Championship berth.
11/18/2012 12:58 AM
I agree that STA got ripped on that last run, which was a TD in my eyes. However, I don't think a 2-loss Pac12 champ would bypass however-many 1-loss teams are left. It seems possible, but unlikely to me.
11/18/2012 1:05 AM
Yeah they are out of it probably, but if they were 10-1 and had beaten ND and Oregon, they are probably top 2, as the computers already have them fairly high, and with the W vs ND they'd be sitting pretty about now. Still not going to be easy going to play UCLA next week.

Also think of this if UCLA beats Stanford they get the reward of playing a pi$$ed off Oregon team.

Also if Oregon wins out and ND DOES lose to USC, then we get the game we had 2 weeks ago with Bama/Oregon and then UCLA could go to the Rose again.
Rose would have to take them over Stanford if UCLA wins next week wouldn't they?

11/18/2012 1:09 AM
Not sure how Oregon stays that high, Stanford is the first decent team they have played all season long. 

If Notre Dame loses we are looking at another potential all SEC BCS title game.
11/18/2012 1:17 AM
I think ORE is out of the NC hunt, unless FLA loses to FSU.

If STA beats UCLA, ORE is out--they won't get in the Pac12 game.

If UCLA beats STA, ORE would only get to help themselves in the rankings by beating ORE ST + UCLA. Two soild teams, but not killers. They've already lost to the only "pretty damned good" team on their schedule.

FLA would get a bump by beating FSU.

K-State would get a bump by beating TEX. I think they're out too, but they would be a 1-loss team with strong computer rankings, and a conference champ.

ND loss means SEC Champ/1-loss FLA or SEC Champ/1-loss K-state, imo. I see FLA as more likely, assuming they beat FSU.
11/19/2012 10:17 AM
If ND loses you are gonna get Bama/Georgia winner vs Florida if Florida wins. K state is done, Oregon will get in before they will.
11/19/2012 10:30 AM
I don't think we get a SEC v. SEC game this year, not after the blow back from last year. 

Oh and if ND loses and Oregon is in the national title game, the Rose Bowl will select Notre Dame as Oregon's replacement.  They want ND in that game badly.

11/19/2012 10:43 AM

If you look at the BCS numbers, it's going to be tough for OR to jump FL.    FL has a slight lead and plays #10.   OR will play #15 and the current #17. 

Stanford made a nice jump by beating the #2 while SC fell a good bit for playing a FBS team.    I don't think beating 15/17 will trump beating a 10.

11/19/2012 10:51 AM
I think Oregon will jump Florida if they play in the Pac 12 title game (it will gain more ground in the computers than UF will gain in the human polls).  I just don't see another SEC v. SEC, especially with some poorer performances (though still wins) out of the conference. 
11/19/2012 11:04 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/19/2012 10:43:00 AM (view original):

If you look at the BCS numbers, it's going to be tough for OR to jump FL.    FL has a slight lead and plays #10.   OR will play #15 and the current #17. 

Stanford made a nice jump by beating the #2 while SC fell a good bit for playing a FBS team.    I don't think beating 15/17 will trump beating a 10.

If Oregon gets to the Pac 12 title (meaning UCLA beats Stanford) then UCLA will probably be a top 10-12 team in the computers, which is really all that's going to matter at this point.

 

Oregon already has a lead in the human polls, and that isn't likely to change if Oregon wins next week and then gets to and wins the Pac 12 title game.  Florida is up big in the computers, but they have virtually nowhere to go since they are already sitting at #2.  They are more likely to move down (with Alabama jumping them after the SEC title game) than up.  Oregon would definitely move up a couple spots in the computers with wins over Oregon State and UCLA.  If Oregon was at an average of #4 in the computers, they'd be ahead of Florida overall right now. 

11/19/2012 11:17 AM
I don't know.  I think OR was exposed a bit on Saturday.   If they don't blow out OSU and UCLA, I don't know if they hang onto their human rankings.
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