Posted by whit6r on 12/19/2012 11:19:00 PM (view original):

I'm calling my shot...John Carroll will win a national championship sometime within the next 100 seasons.

In Rupp D3, which I would also put up against D3 in any other world...and maybe D2 in some worlds (ok maybe not), that's actually saying something.  I guarantee there's not a season in the next 100 where it'll be easy.

Big game tonight for my team. We play 6-2 Austin (#23). I think we can play with them but we are a young team this year. We are starting 1 Sr. 2 Jr. and 2 So. but I have been happy so far because we have gone 6-2 with a 98 RPI. I know that isn't good but with this young team I will take it.

I took a job in DII at Michigan Tech. but I still keep tabs on all of the DIII conferences and follow this thread.  There are a lot of great coaches in Rupp DIII and it's evident in the excitement level that carries over from season to season.  What astounds me is that there's a lot of great coaches and rivalries in DII (and DI) as well, yet there's zero buzz on the forums for those divisions.  No I'm not volunteering for the job, but I would love to see threads like this for DII and DI.  Oh well, maybe some day!

I hope everyone had a good holiday with family or friends...now back to basketball!

Eleven teams still are undefeated in Rupp heading to conference play. Here’s the list of honor: 

Suffolk (chichisteve) and Johnson and Wales (spasticity) out of the GNE, Tufts (zmark513) of the NESCAC, RPI (dynastydan) of the Upstate, Emory (phalia) in the University, Illinois Wesleyan (wheaties1) in the CCIW, Catholic (shineenihs) out of the Capital and the Sim-coached programs of Wisconsin, Superior (Wisconsin), Piedmont (USA South), Texas, Tyler (SoCal) and Manhattanville (Skyline). 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have nine programs still looking for their first victories, including one program that has lost at least 119 consecutive games. Taking the walk of shame through the non-con are Johns Hopkins, Husson, Massachusetts Liberal Arts, Haverford, Baldwin-Wallace, Wisconsin Platteville, Montclair St., Trinity (CT) and DeSales. At least one of those teams is safe since two are out of the Centennial conference. 

Anyone surprised (good or bad) by how they’ve progressed to this point in the season? Sound off as conference play opens!

I've been happy with J&W's progress.  We've had a few close games, even though they all ended up 10+ final margins.  Also feeling good about the 2 close exhib losses to human D1s sporting sub-100 RPIs.  SOS at 126 is higher than I'd like, but a lot of that is just 0-10 Trinity(CT).  They're a sim with 6 SRs that I expected to win a few games, but they have 7 losses by 10 points or less.  Hopefully they'll pick up a few Ws in a sim-heavy conference and stop killing my SOS, although starting GNE play will help with that too.

It's interesting looking at J&W's stats page.  Allen Woods is leading the team by a mile with almost 25 mpg off the bench.  I guess 97 ST helps.  I'm really torn whether he's more useful in that role or as a starter (and which position even).  Good problem obviously.  I really like seeing the offensive balance, something we haven't always had.  Everyone except the true FR Jackson is scoring at least 3.9 ppg.

#17 8-2 H-S on the road as a 4 point dog against 9-1 #2 Texas Lutheran. HS has mediocre ath/spd/d this season, and it gets worse. TLU has better ratings in those categories, especially speed. HS is rated 100 points lower as a team as well. HS's only hope is that while blapo's boys are highly rated, they aren't overwhelming in D....

Sufflolk slips from the ranks of the unbeaten, 71-69, at the hands of Rivier on the opening night of GNE play. I'll try and cast Johnson and Wales into the abyss tonight, but in all honesty I'll be satisfied if we're within 15 or 20 by game's end. 

Edit: Upon closer review, conference play did not go well for the unbeatens. Illinois Wesleyan, Piedmont and Texas Tyler also dropped their first games of the season to open league play last night. Only seven remain...

Well, I didn't knock Johnson and Wales from its pedestal, but Suffolk did last night, by 11 points. There will be no undefeated GNE champion this season. 

Also going down to defeat last night was Manhattanville, which fell by five points to Mt. St. Vincent despite being a 26-point favorite in the contest. That leaves just five unbeaten teams in the Rupp world, of which only Wisconsin, Superior is being piloted by Simmy. 

Doing my annual midseason projection report...First number after the conference name is the number of teams currently projected 1-64 in the league. Second number is the additional number of teams in positions 65-96.

 

ASC - 4/0, Capital 0/2, Centennial 2/0, CUNY 0/0 (best team currently 108), CCIW 3/0, Coast 0/1, Commonwealth 2/2, Empire 1/2, Freedom 0/2, GNE 9/1, Heartland 4/0, Iowa 3/0, Little East 2/1, Michigan 2/1, Midwest 0/0 (best team currently 100), Minnesota 1/1, NESCAC 2/3, New Jersey 0/1, N. Atlantic 0/1, NCAC 2/2, Northwest 4/3, Ohio 0/3, ODAC 1/0, Penn 0/0 (best team currently 110), Skyline 3/0, So. Cal. 3/3, St. Louis 2/1, SUNY 0/0 (best team currently 99), University 5/1, Upstate 1/1, USA South 6/0, Wisconsin 2/0. 

 

Just some things that jump out at me based off of this: 1. The GNE is clearly back after its “down” year of only 5 postseason teams a year ago. Eight of its nine NT teams are pretty well locked in already with projection values of < 27 (my team is probably going to slide to PIT fodder before all is done, but the other eight are solid...), 2. The Northwest is having its best season since I’ve been tracking with more than half its membership forecast to reach the postseason in some capacity...still work to be done though or else six of those seven could be playing in the PIT, because....3. The break line for “last at-large team in” could be higher than most years. Based on the data above, it already projects to be at 54, and that’s in an “ideal’ environment with no upsets. We all know how well that works out in conference tournament play. 4. Nearly half the national tournament field could come from just six conferences -- the ASC, GNE, Heartland, Northwest, University and USA South. 

Great breakdown. Thanks!

great stuff red

Thought I would throw some stuff out here since it's been quite awhile.... this is basically a run down on the top teams from the UAA this year.

The UAA has 3 really solid teams leading the way....

My team, Millsaps is down and suffering from over ambitious non-conference scheduling.  At this point, I hope to make the PT and make a run.  I think I have maybe 2-3 more wins this season if all goes well.

Meanwhile, the class of the league are these 3 teams, all in the West conference:  Ozarks, Southwestern, and Louisiana. 

So far, Ozarks leads the way with a 20-2 record with this junior dominated team (he has 2 seniors, but they hold overs from a previous coach and not that good).  Spike101 won at Cornell, so it's no surprise that he turned Ozarks around....when I look at his team in depth, I'm not sure they can get past the sweet 16.  Even spike would probably admit he wants to get to the next level in recruiting... this season will give him a big prestige boost - so look for continued success.

ironman2011 has also completed the major rebuild at Southwestern.  Last year he made the NT, only to be bounced in round 1.  I actually think Southwestern has better chances at making a deep run.  I think he'll get to the sweet 16, perhaps Elite 8.  Ozarks and SW split the regular season.

Louisiana has enjoyed years of success in the UA.  Disco lost to Ozarks twice, but did slip by Southwestern by 2 at home.  He has one more game against Southwestern on the road, final game of the season.  Disco had a great run last season, making the Elite 8.  I am not sure how he'll do this year - if he gets good match-ups, he could make another deep run (sweet 16 or elite 8?).  With a 0-3 recrod vs. teh Great NE, I don't think he wants anything to do with them this post season.

Overall, the UAA looks to get 4 or 5 teams in the NT.  In addition to the 3 above, Sewanee (12-9, bubble per projection report) and Emory (16-4, lock) look like they have the inside track right now.  Rhodes also has a chance, but is currently squarely on the bubble. 

Good read Brian. I'll follow up with the ASC report:

In the East, Hardin Simmons is ranked and holds a one game lead over SIM coached Concordia, Austin. Concordia is currently 32  on the projection report, and looks to get in the NT currently. They have the class of the conference remaining though, with HS, Texas Lutheran, and Austin all coming up, with two of those games on the road. Ricosuave's Austin team has 5 Sr and 2 JR, and is has a decent overall rating of 568, but is a little low in ATH and D. They are 27 on the projection report, and should make it back into the NT. Aggiegog and Austin had a great regular season last year, but had a disappointing 2nd round exit and is rebuilding this season.

In the West, its all about 20-1 #4 ranked Texas Lutheran. Blapo21's squad has topped 100 points a whopping 9 times this season. Season highs for points include 130, 123 and 122 points, making them the highest scoring team in D3. TLU is average at D, but is the 3rd fastest team in the country, with ATH on par with the top teams in the land. They also have a top 5 BH group. We'll see if this is a winning recipe for a deep NT run.

The conference reports were a good idea, so I took some time to assemble a rundown of how every conference fares with five nights remaining in the regular season. Some races are better than others...

ASC -- #4 Texas Lutheran holds one-game lead over #14 Hardin-Simmons. The head-to-head game has already taken place, but three of TL's final five games are against the next three best records in the league. H-S has an easier road as tonight's game against McMurry will be its last against a team with a winning record.

Capital -- Catholic remains unbeaten and unranked and holds a two-game lead over Stevenson, one of only two other teams in the league to hold a winning record.That head-to-head has already occurred, but keep an eye on Jan. 13 when Catholic hits the road to Marymount. It was a two-point game when the two teams met on Catholic's home floor. If the undefeated dream dies, this is likely the spot.

Centennial --- Ursinus has a game lead on Dickinson in the annual head-to-head between the two schools. Nobody else in the league has better than 12 wins, meaning someone will have to stumble badly to change the order of things before the end of the regular season.

CUNY -- Staten Island leads by two games currently over John Jay and Medgar Evers in an all-simmed race.

CCIW -- Northland is undefeated at 11-0 in league play. #17 Martin Luther has one loss. Illinois Wesleyan has two losses. Good stuff here. Martin Luther heads to Illinois Wesleyan tonight. Should they get past that, they host Northland on Jan. 10.

Coast -- Wentworth is 13-0 and chewchad has already locked up no worse than a share of the league title as he's three games clear with three to play. The first two of those games are against teams sporting 2-19 and 1-20 records, so if someone's going to prevent a 16-0, it will probably have to be Colby-Sawyer in Wentworth's season finale.

Commonwealth -- #2 Susquehanna is a game ahead of #13 Penn St. Altoona in the standings. Jan. 10 is the showdown date with Susquehanna hitting the road to PSA. It's two games back to the next team, so this is a two-horse race.

Empire -- Union is undefeated in league play and three games clear of its closest pursuer. Tonight's game at Utica is probably the biggest hurdle to a 16-0 sweep.

Freedom -- Drew is a game and a half up on King's in a simmed battle. They've already played both times this season, so that will probably be the final order of things.

GNE -- #1 Johnson & Wales has a half-game lead over #8 Emmanuel and a full game lead on #5 Suffolk. Circle Jan. 12 on the calendar as that's the date JW heads to Emmanuel. The other late-season drama concerns three possible postseason teams still searching for win No. 14 to lock up national tournament eligibility.

Heartland -- #16 Defiance is 12-0 and three games clear of the field in its quest for a league title. Only a Jan. 10 game at 16-6 Manchester appears to be a threat to perfection.

Iowa -- Buena Vista and Simpson are both 11-0 in league play. They're also three games ahead of the field, so when they collide Jan. 11 at Simpson, it will likely be for the league title.

Little East -- #9 UMass Dartmouth and docwooden are two games clear of the field with a 12-0 mark. None of the remaining games seem scary. The bigger news out of the Little East this season came a few days ago when Massachusetts Liberal Arts snapped what was no less than a 126-game losing streak with a five-point win over W. Conn. St. in league play.

Michigan -- #18 Calvin is one game in front of Eureka. That can even up tonight when the two frontrunners meet in what will likely decide if Calvin wins the conference outright or will be forced to share with Eureka.

Midwest -- What a mess! Rose-Hulman currently by a half-game over Monmouth and Beloit and a full game over Lawrence, but somehow none of those three teams are left on RHIT's schedule, so the deck is stacked in their favor.

Minnesota -- St. Olaf is two games clear of Macalester and Hamline. Should it get there, a Jan. 12 game at Hamline could loom large, but only if sim-coached St. Olaf slips to someone else before that.

NESCAC -- #20 Bates leads by a game over Tufts and by two over Connecticut. They have no more games remaining against either of those two pursuers, however. Simmed Bowdoin (17-5) is the toughest thing left on the platter.

New Jersey -- Rutgers at Newark is a game up on College of NJ. They'll meet Jan. 12 at CNJ to settle things.

N. Atlantic -- Johnson St. is one game up on Castleton and Thomas, but ought to hold on as their their final three games all come against teams with losing records.

NCAC -- #12 Wooster and unranked Wittenberg are side-by-side at 12-1 and three games clear of any challengers. Slight advantage to Wooster, but neither school has a game remaining against an opponent with better than an 11-10 record currently.

Northwest -- #25 Whitworth is two games clear of both Willamette and George Fox. Three of its four remaining games are against teams with winning records, but none against the two challengers.

Ohio -- John Carroll and Otterbein are tied at 11-1. Capital is a game and a half back, so three team race. Otterbein goes to Capital on Jan. 10. John Carroll will sit back and watch, knowing its toughest opponent the rest of the way is currently 11-10.

ODAC -- Lynchburg is a game in front of Emory and Henry in what is a two-horse race. Lynchburg hosts a game between the two schools on Jan. 10 that will probably decide whether there's a solo champ or a split title.

Penn -- Cabrini, Babson, Springfield and Misericordia all have three losses in conference play. Gwynedd-Mercy and Eastern have four losses in the conference. That's SIX schools within a game of each other atop the conference with only five nights left in the regular season!. Unfortunately, only Babson is human-coached and his only game against any of those other five simmed frontrunners is tonight at Eastern. If he can get through that unscathed, then he should at least share the league title.

Skyline -- #3 US Merchant Marines can lock up at least a share of the league title tonight. They have a three-game lead on Manhattanville and Old Westbury so this race is, essentially, over.

So. Cal. -- #11 Whittier is one game in front of #15 CSU, Eastbay and #21 Colorado with three games to play. They also don't play a game against a team with a winning record the rest of the season. Eastbay is at Colorado on Jan. 13.

St. Louis -- Webster by three games with four to play over a pair of sims. The race is pretty well settled in mschulte24's favor.

SUNY -- SUNY Potsdam is undefeated at 13-0 in conference play and two games clear of Brockport and SUNY Oneonta. They're at Oneonta on Jan. 10, the only likely stumbling block to perfection.

University -- #6 Ozarks is a game up on #7 Southwestern with #19 Louisiana two games back. A game against 16-5 Emory is Ozarks' toughest remaining contest.

Upstate -- Washington(Mo.) is a game up on Rensselaer Poly. Tonight's game against New York U is the best chance for the leader to tumble over the final three games.

USA South -- #10 N. Carolina Wesleyan and Greensboro are knotted atop the standings and two games in front of any pursuers. Greensboro has the friendlier final three games on the schedule. NCW has a Jan. 13 home game against 16-7 LaGrange that con't be overlooked.

Wisconsin -- #23 Wisconsin Superior and Wisconsin Oshkosh are tied with Concordia(WI) one game behind. Superior heads to Oshkosh on Jan. 11.