3/12/2013 9:54 AM
Interestingly, tonight's final four features 2 rematchs from the regular season.

Texas Lutheran beat S. Vermont at home.

Millsaps beat Greensboro at home. 

Both were close games.  We'll see what adjustments (if any) coaches make and if the neutral court makes a difference in the outcome.

Good luck to everyone tonight.

Nice call on the 'way too late' final four picks by jack_duck (he called all four winners).  Care to take another shot for picks this round??
3/12/2013 10:29 AM
Hey, I got 50 percent in the Way Too Early! ; )

I've really let my own thread down this season with a lack of time to focus. Sorry gang.

3/12/2013 5:53 PM
Wow, I'm kinda psyched about my success prognosticating the quarterfinals!  Let's try it again now in the semis:

I am really impressed with all four of these teams.  Millsaps gets the tiniest edge over Greensboro in my book, for their incredible depth.  And I really wanna be a GNE homer and go S Vermont, but this Texas Lutheran team looks so scary to me, that I have to predict a Millsaps - TexLu final.
3/12/2013 5:55 PM
But go Mountaineers!
3/13/2013 10:04 AM
Two great Final Four games!!!  Unfortunately, I called the end of my fellow GNEer's run correctly.  Funngun has got to be disappointed that his excellent ball handling team turned it over a season high 21 times, but he also couldn't have expected to out-rebound TexLu 34-24.  In the end the possessions almost completely evened out, and the OT classic was decided by a single FT.  Great game and congrats to Texas Lutheran and coach Blapo!  And Funngun, great run and congrats on the final four!

Millsaps messed up my perfect record of prognostication.  Thanks a lot Brian.  No, seriously, this was a fantastic game as well.  I had mentioned Millsaps' incredible depth, but Greensboro's bench matched it with some insane talent, notably in rebounding and scoring.  I don't know what you can do when a team shoots that well besides say congratulations.  Nicely done, Tilldog.  And Brian, fantastic season.

Good Luck to both in the final!  I'll pick Greensboro by a nose now that I've seen their crazy depth, but it's anybody's game!
3/13/2013 10:18 AM
Ouch - Greensboro rolls on, slicing up my swiss cheese defense, by shooting 57%.  While the game was close through out, Greensboro pulls away and was not in any serious danager at the end.  Well done tilldog, and good luck.

On the other side of the bracket, Texas Lutheran nails a 3 pointer with 1 second left to tie the game.  In overtime, Texas Lutheran and S. Vermont go back and forth until TexLuteran's Anderson gets the steal with 8 seconds to completely deflat the fans of S. Vermont.  Willie Woods then seals it by hitting 2 free throws to give Texas a 4 point lead.  Wilson hit a 3 pointer with a second to go to make the final score 75-74.

Congrats to funngunn for a great run.  Ironically, funngun recently won a D3 title in Phelan --- his team?  --- Greensboro.

If I make time, I'll give my prediction for the final later today.
3/13/2013 10:24 AM
At least there's this....

Conference RPI
-------------------------------
UNIVERSITY  0.5910
great ne 0.5772
usa south 0.5629
3/13/2013 11:32 AM
Posted by brianxavier on 3/13/2013 10:25:00 AM (view original):
At least there's this....

Conference RPI
-------------------------------
UNIVERSITY  0.5910
great ne 0.5772
usa south 0.5629
This is probably due to the added coaching talent at Centre College.      
3/13/2013 4:33 PM
For those who might be interested, here is how my predictions at the start of the year ended up; 48 of the 64 teams that I predicted made it in.  Based upon the results I am going to tweak a few things and try again next year.  I will have a csv formatted file with all of the D3 players and their ratings by team for next season as well if anyone wants to perform their own analysis.

Team Rating SEED actual
Millsaps 58.80 1 1
CSU, Eastbay 57.54 1 2
Piedmont 57.45 1 1
Greensboro 56.14 1 1
Ursinus 56.05 2 2
Rivier 55.60 2 3
Texas Lutheran 55.54 2 4
Johnson and Wales 55.25 2 5
Defiance 55.16 3 10
Whittier 55.03 3 5
Emmanuel 55.00 3 4
U.S. Merchant Marines 54.53 3 13
Suffolk 54.48 4 3
Louisiana 54.36 4 3
Emory 53.84 4 5
Ozarks 53.44 4 1
Penn St. Altoona 53.43 5 2
Colorado 53.03 5 7
Palm Beach Atlantic 52.59 5 4
UMass, Dartmouth 52.56 5 DNC
Susquehanna 52.19 6 2
Scranton 52.17 6 8
S. Vermont 52.07 6 4
New York U. 52.04 6 8
Ohio Northern 51.94 7 13
John Carroll 51.80 7 8
St. Joseph's (ME) 51.79 7 12
Howard Payne 51.65 7 DNC
Sewanee 51.64 8 9
Lynchburg 51.53 8 10
Vassar 51.40 8 6
Willamette 51.36 8 15
Connecticut 51.35 9 6
Marietta 51.11 9 DNC
Union 51.10 9 11
Wooster 51.06 9 9
Cornell 50.75 10 DNC
Whitworth 50.74 10 DNC (last 4 out)
Norwich 50.72 10 14
Thomas 50.62 10 9
Washington (MO) 50.54 11 DNC
N. Central 50.53 11 DNC
Webster 50.47 11 7
Chapman 50.46 11 9
Wittenberg 50.44 12 7
Rensselaer Poly. 50.43 12 12
Dickinson 50.09 12 3
Calvin 49.99 12 10
Emerson 49.98 13 DNC
Shenandoah 49.95 13 DNC
Colby 49.93 13 8
Marymount 49.90 13 11
N. Carolina Wesleyan 49.81 14 DNC
Misericordia 49.77 14 16
Johnson St. 49.62 14 DNC
Thomas More 49.58 14 DNC
CMHMS 49.58 15 DNC
Concordia, Moorhead 49.07 15 10
SUNY Oneonta 49.03 15 DNC
Wentworth Tech. 48.26 15 DNC (next 4 out)
Lawrence 48.13 16 DNC
Concordia (WI) 47.92 16 12
Polytechnic 47.19 16 15
William Paterson 46.49 16 16
3/13/2013 5:02 PM
Not bad -- 3 of the 4 top seeds and 75 percent overall. Nicely done sir!
3/13/2013 5:49 PM
Thanks.  There were a few big misses, but we won't talk about that :)
3/13/2013 6:32 PM
Nicely done, bullman! I'd certainly be interested in that file and done some of my own analysis. Thanks for the offer.
3/13/2013 6:35 PM
I think overall this has been a great NT. All the close games and having no clear favorite has made it very entertaining. Congrats to blapo and tilldog on making the finals.
3/14/2013 10:07 AM
A bit of an anticlimactic final as TexLu's starting PG fouled out in 10 minutes.  Unfortunately PG is his least deep position.  His starting SG (the next best option to bring the ball down) and SF would eventually foul out as well, but strangely, no fouls for his starting PF or C all game.

In short, Greensboro's stellar FT shooting combined with TexLu's PG woes allowed Tilldog's crew to cruise to the win.

But a big congrats to both our Rupp D3 championship game contenders!  Great season, Blapo!  And way to go champ Tilldog!
3/14/2013 1:17 PM

The ASC is only half full, so our SOS, RPI, and Projection Report end up getting hammered, no matter how well we try to schedule in the non-conference. Its nice to see that despite this, we still play good basketball, with our coached teams consistently doing well in the tournament. Gratz to Greensboro for a stellar season. Heartbreak for Blapo21, but the ASC will be back!

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