1/30/2013 2:38 PM
Which of the 2 statements do you believe to be true -

A) During an atbat, the sim determines whether the pitch is a walk, strikeout, or in play. Then determines once the ball is in play whether it's a hit or an out.

B) During an atbat, the sim determines whether the pitch is a walk, out, or a hit. If it determines out, it then decides what kind of out.

If B is true, then the importance of velocity is negligible. The only positive would be that a pitcher would be more likely to have an out with no runners advancing if he got a strikeout.

Thanks.
1/30/2013 3:16 PM
B

1/30/2013 3:44 PM (edited)
I'm not sure your premise is accurate.   What makes you think the outcome probabilities would be be different under either scenario?  Point being that how do you know that under scenario B that the equation that deterimines if it is an out doesn't incorporate high velocity as a contributing factor?

Not arguing, just trying to understand.....
1/30/2013 3:48 PM
I believe the premise of A is that a high velocity would result in more outs since strikeouts are treated as "in addition to" outs that result from balls in play.  B makes no such distinction between strikeouts and "balls in play" outs.
1/30/2013 3:53 PM
I'm not sure we need to go through such detailed analysis to determine that velocity is all but negligible.

It makes a pitcher with good pitches and control a dominant strikeout pitcher (as opposed to just plain old "good"), and it plays some role in the direction of a batted ball, in conjuction with the equally ignorable "push/pull".
1/30/2013 3:55 PM
Yes, exactly. In RL, high strikeout pitchers are generally successful, largely because the ball is in play less often, which means there's less of a chance of a hit. In HBD, if the strikeout is just a kind of out, then these pitchers don't have that advantage they have in RL.
1/30/2013 3:57 PM
I've always treated velocity as a secondary rating, not a core pitching rating.

High velocity (i.e. strikeouts) are nice to have in that they do prevent the possible advancement of runners on an out from a ball in play, but I think they have less relevance in HBD than they do in real life.

I guess that means my answer would be B.
1/30/2013 3:58 PM
Posted by iain on 1/30/2013 3:53:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure we need to go through such detailed analysis to determine that velocity is all but negligible.

It makes a pitcher with good pitches and control a dominant strikeout pitcher (as opposed to just plain old "good"), and it plays some role in the direction of a batted ball, in conjuction with the equally ignorable "push/pull".
Does "dominant strikeout pitcher" mean, to you, that he's dominant, and a strikeout pitcher, or a pitcher that is dominant when it comes to accumulating strikeouts?

It's interesting if velocity is used with push/pull. I never thought of that to be the case.
1/30/2013 4:02 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 1/30/2013 3:57:00 PM (view original):
I've always treated velocity as a secondary rating, not a core pitching rating.

High velocity (i.e. strikeouts) are nice to have in that they do prevent the possible advancement of runners on an out from a ball in play, but I think they have less relevance in HBD than they do in real life.

I guess that means my answer would be B.
This has also been my assumption.
1/30/2013 4:05 PM
I will say this, and not sure I am agreeing or disagreeing.
Assume all pitchers has similar control and quality of pitches.

High velocity will get more Ks than low velocity.
Low velocity will put more balls in play.

K = a minimum of 3 pitches. Ball in play = 1 to many pitches.

Historically, among MY pitchers, low velocity pitchers are more efficient. Lower pitch per batter count = less pitches in a game = less fatigue = less pitchers needed on a staff.

BUT, must go hand in hand with a quality D and a good GB/FB ratio.

Thus, my answer, undoubtedly, is maybe.
1/30/2013 4:25 PM

Good question for a dev chat. 

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out.   I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

1/30/2013 6:13 PM
Posted by romo7 on 1/30/2013 4:25:00 PM (view original):

Good question for a dev chat. 

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out.   I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

Essentially youre asking if its "hit, walk, strikeout, in play out." Which would be more like A than B for me, at least it terms of what I'm trying to figure out.
1/30/2013 6:23 PM
Posted by romo7 on 1/30/2013 4:25:00 PM (view original):

Good question for a dev chat. 

If its B, I would like to think that the engine takes velocity into account when determining the initial out, walk, or in play determination, and with high velocity increases the chances for an out, and with low velocity decreases the chance for an out.   I guess everyone is saying it does not.

And does higher velocity equal more push and less pull due to less batter reaction time?

While I don't know, along with everyone else here, I would like to think that a higher velocity pitcher would have increased chances for an out over a lower velocity guy.  It really has to, or else the rating has no meaning at all other than just stats on a guys card.
1/30/2013 6:34 PM
It still has meaning, but it's extremely negligible.  Runners don't advance on the bases with a strikeout, like they could do on a ground out to the right side, or a fly out / tag up.
1/30/2013 7:54 PM
If that is the only meaning it has, it is an empty rating IMO.  I think it has to come before the "ball in play" aspect.
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