All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODL LXII Team Rosters & Commentary
3/30/2013 8:52 PM
smokey, right now in the dh52 Lanier is averaging 3.7 fpg and shooting 48.9% from the field, he's my 4th highest usage guy, so it's not the individual penalty that is costing him. He's WAY not worth the nearly $8.7 mill in salary, especially in a $47mill cap league, not enough boards and efg is far too low for that kind of salary investment.
3/30/2013 9:16 PM
I think my eyes are gonna roll right out of my head if I keep reading this thread.
3/30/2013 10:46 PM
Posted by ashamael on 3/30/2013 9:16:00 PM (view original):
I think my eyes are gonna roll right out of my head if I keep reading this thread.
I think I just sat there starting, dumbfounded, at a lot of it
3/31/2013 2:39 PM
Posted by felonius on 3/28/2013 10:55:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ashamael on 3/28/2013 3:22:00 AM (view original):
Posted by coachcroft on 3/28/2013 12:17:00 AM (view original):
is the max for undrafted player 3 million?
no max for undrafted players in the ODL iirc.  It was $4m in the funk52.
only rule I see related to this is that the top 5 minutes guys on your team must have been drafted
pretty sure felonius is right that this has been the only restriction in the ODL - that said I'm not sure if new owners really had notice about this rule before the draft
4/2/2013 7:25 PM
Looking at some of the drafted stat's, I calculate that this team has 91% of it's points coming from it's top 6 shooters with over 50FG% for each, the 6 average 52FG%. I calculate ~118pt/g @ uptempo. What I don't know is how these numbers will stack-up in the ODL. I guess I'll know soon enough. 
4/3/2013 6:34 PM
ODL XLII                                  
Team   ~def rank   pts rank   rbs rank   ast rank   T-rank#     RANK
A-team   76.6 6   10154 1   4069 24   2771 1   32     5
pupu   58.9 21   9707 2   5205 1   2415 6   30     4
spoilers   65.4 15   9427 3   4177 21   2646 4   43     10
winter   61.1 18   9386 4   5097 4   2129 13.5   39.5     8
stang's   53.7 24   9315 5   4524 17   2011 17   63     18.5
D   82.7 2   9267 6   5037 5   2341 9   22     1
exhaust   70.4 11   9202 7   4336 19   1730 23   60     16
bluegrass   64.7 16   9195 8   4330 20   2695 3   47     9
scudmud   67.7 12   9161 9   4725 11   1923 20   52     13
vikings   77.4 5   9085 10   4773 9   2762 2   26     2.5
nine   76.3 7   9066 11   4844 6   2195 11   35     6
farm   65.4 14   9030 12   4673 15   2000 18   59     15
armadillo   77.6 4   9005 13   4350 18   2129 13.5   48.5     11
ruin   78.9 3   8970 14   4734 12   2197 10   49     12
saints   82.7 1   8919 15   5200 2   2346 8   26     2.5
rockets   66.4 13   8890 16   4709 14   1979 19   62     17
nitemare   76.1 8   8875 17   4837 7   2433 5   37     7
quiet   59.6 20   8867 18   4721 13   2135 12   63     18.5
mercy   57.4 22   8861 19   4783 8   2352 7   56     14
B&B   74 10   8855 20   4136 23   1843 21   64     20
guessing   63.6 17   8832 21   4744 10   1696 24   72     21
magic   60.6 19   8692 22   4605 16   2051 16   73     22
price   75.6 9   8515 23   4162 22   1770 22   76     24
doom   56.8 23   7958 24   5150 3   2093 15   75     23
average   68.7     9051     4663     2193     50.4      
SD   8.8     413     344     315     16.7      
4/3/2013 6:39 PM
Some numbers to munch on...
4/3/2013 9:21 PM (edited)
18th?  You're dumber than I thought you were... and that's saying something.

edit:  I had to delete my bag of hammers pic... it was huge.

4/3/2013 8:48 PM
smokey totals are pretty worthless - you might want to look at advanced numbers (he said quixotically) - points, rebounds and assists totals are pointless relative to usage, O/Dreb% and as%s (as better measures of what I think you're trying to measure

so for instance I have a starting 5 with 14.5 usage points (based on point assignment per tier in the FAQ and more than enough to avoid penalties) Orbd 44.9 (I'm guessing league best or just about), Drbd of 94.5 (up there in the top 5 again would be my guess I havent been systematic but I know at least one team is up over 100) and as% of 71% (more than enough to avoid the penalty mentioned in the FAQ) - my team's weakness is probably efg - it's not bad but there are definitely a handful of teams that are better off on that front and whose other stats are close enough to my strength areas that it makes no nevermind - my defense is above average (if by average we mean 50) moire importantly on the defensive front I have 90s in both the front and back court which at least puts me in a position to guard studs with studs where they tend to be

on paper ash will probably win this league, on paper I should make the playoffs - in sim reality since I am certain that seble has built in some sort of handicapping algorithm assigned to my account (sounds crazy but ask around) my team could struggle to make .500
4/3/2013 10:57 PM

Felonius, could you analyze my team the same way and post the results here, please. I not sure how your weighting your model. I understand that if a player or team out performs it's drafted stats significantly that the SIM will correct for it. I also understand that if a rotation has too little usage a team will go into penalty. My "tongue n' cheek" rhetoric aside, I thank everyone for their help. I'm off to read the FAQ on penalties. Thanx all

4/3/2013 10:59 PM
Anyone have ideas on how to incorporate defensive effectiveness into the mix. It's a black box, but definately effects the outcome of games.
4/3/2013 11:20 PM
fairplay - a quick analysis of your team

Name Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
69-70 Bill Bridges PF 15.7 49.6 33.2 49.4 10.4 23.2 10.9 1.3 1.3
73-74 Bob Lanier C 24.0 51.4 35.7 51.4 8.6 25.3 12.9 1.4 4.3
87-88 Terry Porter PG 16.8 53.0 35.4 53.3 2.3 10.7 29.9 2.0 0.3
80-81 Julius Erving SF 28.4 52.1 23.7 52.2 9.8 14.2 13.8 2.4 2.8
79-80 Kermit Washington PF 16.8 55.3 0.0 55.3 12.9 21.0 7.3 1.2 2.8
73-74 Charlie Edge SF 17.7 50.1 0.0 50.0 12.8 20.4 4.2 1.3 1.9
09-10 Tyrus Thomas PF 19.8 48.2 0.0 48.3 6.6 21.5 6.3 2.7 4.1
83-84 Johnny High PG 8.2 35.5 0.0 34.6 3.5 10.9 10.7 3.2 1.2
87-88 Carey Scurry SF 16.0 46.9 38.1 47.9 7.2 11.7 12.4 4.4 2.7
00-01 Tariq Abdul-Wahad SG 17.2 38.9 39.9 40.5 3.4 11.1 7.0 1.5 1.8
97-98 Scott Brooks PG 12.8 41.9 45.5 46.2 2.2 8.7 21.2 2.7 0.6
04-05 Eddie House PG 22.7 46.3 41.2 49.6 0.7 6.5 10.7 3.6 0.

4/3/2013 11:44 PM
ODL XLII                                 w/def   w/o def   w/o def
Team   ~def rank   pts rank   rbs rank   ast rank   T-rank#     RANK   rank#   RANK
A-team   76.6 6   10154 1   4069 24   2771 1   32     5   26   6
pupu   58.9 21   9707 2   5205 1   2415 6   30     4   9   1
spoilers   65.4 15   9427 3   4177 21   2646 4   43     10   28   7.5
winter   61.1 18   9386 4   5097 4   2129 13.5   39.5     8   21.5   4
stang's   53.7 24   9315 5   4524 17   2011 17   63     18.5   39   13
D   82.7 2   9267 6   5037 5   2341 9   22     1   20   2
exhaust   70.4 11   9202 7   4336 19   1730 23   60     16   49   19.5
bluegrass   64.7 16   9195 8   4330 20   2695 3   47     9   31   10
scudmud   67.7 12   9161 9   4725 11   1923 20   52     13   40   14
vikings   77.4 5   9085 10   4773 9   2762 2   26     2.5   21   3
nine   76.3 7   9066 11   4844 6   2195 11   35     6   28   7.5
farm   65.4 14   9030 12   4673 15   2000 18   59     15   45   17
armadillo   77.6 4   9005 13   4350 18   2129 13.5   48.5     11   45.5   18
ruin   78.9 3   8970 14   4734 12   2197 10   49     12   36   12
saints   82.7 1   8919 15   5200 2   2346 8   26     2.5   25   5
rockets   66.4 13   8890 16   4709 14   1979 19   62     17   49   19.5
nitemare   76.1 8   8875 17   4837 7   2433 5   37     7   29   9
quiet   59.6 20   8867 18   4721 13   2135 12   63     18.5   43   16
mercy   57.4 22   8861 19   4783 8   2352 7   56     14   34   11
B&B   74 10   8855 20   4136 23   1843 21   64     20   64   23
guessing   63.6 17   8832 21   4744 10   1696 24   72     21   55   22
magic   60.6 19   8692 22   4605 16   2051 16   73     22   54   21
price   75.6 9   8515 23   4162 22   1770 22   76     24   67   24
doom   56.8 23   7958 24   5150 3   2093 15   75     23   42   15
average   68.7     9051     4663     2193     50.4              
SD   8.8     413     344     315     16.7              
4/3/2013 11:49 PM
fast and nasty analysis:

usage: you have 1 tier 2 guy (J) and 1 tier 3 guy (lanier) and either 3 tier 5 guys or 2 of them and one tier 4 guy (depending on whether Charlie Edge is your starting SF) so:13-15 usage point based on tier levels which is enough to avoid the team penalty but given the way the sim works not enough to avoid individual penalies (in other words your tier 4  & 5 guys will exceed their touch totals and their efg will suffer and they will exceed their TOV)

you have no outside shooting (the right Porter would have helped a bit) and your tier based scoring is mostly mid so teams set on default D +/- need not worry

Dr J takes the highest % your shots making them at a 52% clip which is meh - my best guy shoots 56% but alas he's in the same tier as a couple 52-3% guys so it will blend - big bob is next at the plate and he makes at a 51% clip - further meh

so in short your efg is worse than mine and Im worried about mine

that addresses what I am coming to call the first 4 columns of the advanced sheet - more and more I think these are the most important (have the right scoing balance with the right efficiency) and I wish they werent  because for the longest time I've felt the last 5 columns should really hold more sway but believe me either seble is handicapping my teams (I really dont believe this but sometimes....) or they simply dont and they dont (and Im pretty sure he isnt but...) I cant tell you the many sad tales I could weave of how beautiful last 5 column teams with far greater defense than you're mustering have broke upon the shoals of first 4 teams with shite else - in this very league I had a team called greyhounds that on paper was beautiful to behold but alas...

so here's your back 5:

Orbd 44 is pretty good almost as good as me near enough to no mind - maybe your sliightly deficient efg is offset by second chances?
Drbd 92-3 is pretty good - with your D you can hope to turn that ball back over maybe
as% 71 - 50 seems to be the floor on penalty - from experience I can tell you 100 doesnt do **** to bonus (but 150 does we know) so no penalty but that extra 3 for Porter doesnt really do anything
steals - dont start with steals they are bullshit - click on my teams and look at my blue funke team's to/steals differentials vs opp and tell me otherwise
blocks - could be/should be a decent modifier adjustment pennies on the dollar in sim terms (cf blue funke ref above)

defense - this basket is really where you seem to be putting your eggs - I've seen 100 defensive ratings really do something - Ive seen 80s and 90s get scorched routinely - dont think there is enough weight in the sim to give you what youre looking for
4/4/2013 12:06 AM

Here's what I'm doing.
I've generated two rank orders, one with def, one without. I'll compare them with the actual rank order at the end of the season and see if there's any useful correlation. Pretty simple exercise...eh. There's a large amount of data to consider when building a team, what I want to know is can I use these 4 parameters to judge the relative quality of a team. May just be my wishful thinking. Also, I'm trying to incorporate def rating into my analysis. It's not that easy to judge.(blackbox)

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