All Forums > Hardball Dynasty Baseball > Hardball Dynasty > Hall of Fame Candidate?
3/24/2013 12:25 AM
 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Yuniesky Posada
I've been lobbying for several seasons now to get him into our HoF in Mordecai. He is the all-time career leader in Stolen Bases in all of HBD, across all worlds. For those too lazy to look him up... he has 1674 career SBs, and was only caught 53 times. The rest of his offensive stats are modest at best. Do you vote him in based solely on his ability to steal bases?
3/24/2013 7:54 AM
No.
3/24/2013 9:31 AM
Stolen bases were broken for so long it hurts him in most owners eyes. SB% means nothing to many of us. He would have been better off if SB had been realistic and had 1000 SB with 3 or 4 times the CS.
3/24/2013 9:41 AM
You can also consider the fact that by setting the base stealing so agressive to inflate his stats the rest of the team wa caught about 45% of the time.
3/24/2013 3:06 PM
He was a great lead off guy at over .370 OBP too. Nice player, but not o HOFer. Maybe if he wasn't a LFer but played a def position (SS, 2B, CF) and was a borderline gold glover there, he'd have a better argument. But a .700 OPS guy at a corner spot isn't a HOF player.
3/24/2013 5:07 PM
Couldn't one argue that he added 1600+ bases to his total bases?   Thus putting his SLG in the .550 range?
3/24/2013 7:33 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2013 5:07:00 PM (view original):
Couldn't one argue that he added 1600+ bases to his total bases?   Thus putting his SLG in the .550 range?
He added about 1550 "adjusted" total bases (SB- 2*CS).  They're not exactly as good as "real" total bases-- a single + SB doesn't advance a runner as far as a double-- but we can treat them as such for the moment.  That would, in fact, make his base acquisition-adjusted SLG about 550.

I still wouldn't vote for him, because .370/.550 (a) overstates his offensive value for the above reasons, and (b) isn't that special for an average defensive RF over a realtively short career.  But I can see the argument, and I wouldn't ridicule anyone who voted for him.
3/24/2013 8:28 PM
Yeah, I'm not sure I would vote for him either but saying his value came from his .700 OPS is less correct than saying he had a .920 OPS.
3/24/2013 8:30 PM
I also know "advanced metric" guy doesn't want to hear it but, in his 11 full seasons, he averaged about 120 RS.   Some of that has to come from his ridiculous SB numbers.
3/25/2013 12:00 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2013 5:07:00 PM (view original):
Couldn't one argue that he added 1600+ bases to his total bases?   Thus putting his SLG in the .550 range?
One could but that one would be wrong
3/25/2013 8:25 AM

How are total bases calculated?    I've always thought it was start at home and, if you get a single, you get one total base.   A double is two, etc, etc.

How is a leadoff single and a SB different than a double?

3/25/2013 8:55 AM
I would argue that he is just as valuable, if not moreso, because the mere threat of him stealing forces the infielder to play close to the base to keep the runner from cheating, which in turn opens up more holes in the defense, helping out the hitters behind him.
3/25/2013 8:56 AM
I don't think HBD works that way.
3/25/2013 10:04 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/25/2013 8:25:00 AM (view original):

How are total bases calculated?    I've always thought it was start at home and, if you get a single, you get one total base.   A double is two, etc, etc.

How is a leadoff single and a SB different than a double?

I outlined that difference above-- they don't lead to the same number of runs, because they don't advance other runners in the same way. 

But the core of your argument is right.  If you analyze historical data to evaluate what kinds of offensive events lead to how many runs, a single and a SB have generated almost exactly 90% as many runs as a double (Analysts-- I'm using Linear Weights here).  If you drop 2 SB for each CS, and multiply the remaining "extra" SB by 0.9, that would still leave this guy with about 1400 bases lying around, for an "adjusted" OPS of about .370/.525. 

This guy will create runs at a rate much, much closer to a typical guy with a 900 OPS than one with his actual 700 OPS.  He's a legit Hall of Fame nominee, if not  necessarily a Hall of Famer.
3/25/2013 10:08 AM
Posted by dedelman on 3/25/2013 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/25/2013 8:25:00 AM (view original):

How are total bases calculated?    I've always thought it was start at home and, if you get a single, you get one total base.   A double is two, etc, etc.

How is a leadoff single and a SB different than a double?

I outlined that difference above-- they don't lead to the same number of runs, because they don't advance other runners in the same way. 

But the core of your argument is right.  If you analyze historical data to evaluate what kinds of offensive events lead to how many runs, a single and a SB have generated almost exactly 90% as many runs as a double (Analysts-- I'm using Linear Weights here).  If you drop 2 SB for each CS, and multiply the remaining "extra" SB by 0.9, that would still leave this guy with about 1400 bases lying around, for an "adjusted" OPS of about .370/.525. 

This guy will create runs at a rate much, much closer to a typical guy with a 900 OPS than one with his actual 700 OPS.  He's a legit Hall of Fame nominee, if not  necessarily a Hall of Famer.
I guess you ignored "leadoff" in my question. 

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