6/10/2013 9:33 PM
Or... Listen to this guy- then find a league I'm joining and join the same league.
6/10/2013 10:06 PM
smokey, trying to validate your findings, and used the recent PPL league to see if my ave D over 90 guarding LeBron had a consistent impact as the above.

I did find that LeBron had an efg of 50.61% in the 74 games he played someone else and averaged 24.4 fga/g and 32.2 poss/g, and against me 8 times he only shot 47.39% and had 21.5 fga/g and 28.7 poss/g.

Here's the problem though and what I think may be a flaw in you findings, nc's team in the 74 games he did not play me had 126.6 poss/g and only 120.0 poss/g against me. The reason is that I had far and away the best rebounding in the league, I was +11.3 rpg and my orb% was 35.9% and dreb% was 74.7%. More boards meant more possessions.

So, I'm not sure the D plays any role in the number of shots/possessions the other guy gets, IMO it likely has more to do with rebounding advantages. It is very hard to test though and you may be on to something, but take a look at the rebounding data and try to factor that in.
6/10/2013 11:37 PM
1) defense lowers opp FG%
2) defense creates attempts advantage through rebounding and turnover creation

pure
unadulterated
genius
6/11/2013 1:01 AM
Smokey, I am not sure that defense actually has an effect on the number of field goals an opposing player takes. It definitely impacts the fg% of the player being defended and to a lesser degree the fg% of the rest of the team, but nowhere in the knowledge base (at least as far as I can tell) is there any mention to the impact of defense on field goal attempts.

In fact, in the knowledge base under how the sim engine works, the first pick a player who has the ball (They do this by calculating possession rates of every one on offense. Defense is not a factor.), then there are three things that can happen: a turnover, a shot attempt, or a foul. Then chance of a shot attempt is calculated after the other two. A turnover is in fact not a factor of someone's individual defense rating. Straight from the knowledge base: Ball handling and passing turnovers each use a fixed percentage of the remaining chance that is based on historical averages for these turnovers. That means that a player's defensive rating only comes into play after a turnover has already been decided. Fouls are also calculated without respect to a defender's individual defense. 

Since I couldn't find anything in the knowledge base, I decided to analyze your data a bit. I did some regression modules with respect to the defender's defense rating and how many shots your player attempted. There is a slight negative correlation in the data, however it is pretty weak. There is not enough data to say definitively that defense has any impact on how many field goal attempts an opposing player takes, just that it impacts the fg% of the player and to a lesser extent, the rest of the team.

I would be very interested to see more data about this and to see if it does indeed have an impact, but for now, I think I am going to have to say that defense rating has no or slight impact on the amount of field goal attempts a player takes. It simply decreases the fg% of the opposing player, and to a lesser extent, the rest of the team.
6/11/2013 4:05 AM
Don't encourage him. He'll spew more diarrhea like this gem: "The first thing fatigue affects is a players DEFENSE."
6/11/2013 10:09 AM (edited)
Posted by smokey57 on 6/11/2013 12:26:00 AM (view original):
Welcome felonius...it's not the concept, but the data that supports the concept...genius.  It's a matter of putting the subject of defense on a somewhat objective basis and taking it out of the black box. If It's so obvious why didn't you post it in response to numerous new owners asking about it...genius. "Forum Trash", they're like cockroach's, you can't seem to get rid of them!!! Again, thx for the wonderful insight....
most of the useful information that people are looking for including defensive impact on opp FG% is outlined in the FAQ - the rest can be found in one of ash's tutorial threads

the only defensive mechanism in place to regulate opp attempts is the double team and that barely works (and mostly not) - you are wrong and spewing misinformation around amongst the newbs
6/11/2013 3:19 PM

you need a grammar check

and you shouldnt be posting spurious nonsense regarding the workings of an engine you clearly do not understand - in your case posts should be restricted to questions and requests for information from people who actually do know what they're talking about

6/11/2013 3:22 PM
Posted by slymonium on 6/11/2013 4:05:00 AM (view original):
Don't encourage him. He'll spew more diarrhea like this gem: "The first thing fatigue affects is a players DEFENSE."
Seriously though- how did you reach this conclusion?  Do you have data to back this claim up?
6/11/2013 4:16 PM
D-U-M. Take a moment and use your brain smokey. You claim that the first thing fatigue affects is defense. How did you conclude this? I don't see any data on fatigue affecting defense.
6/11/2013 6:35 PM
Posted by smokey57 on 6/11/2013 5:11:00 PM (view original):
Sly, you collect the data to prove me wrong...
Wow.  So you make ridiculous, baseless, unsupported claims like, "The first thing fatigue affects is DEFENSE" and when I ask for data on how you came to that conclusion, you tell me to go do the work and collect the data to support your ridiculous claim?  Are you ******* kidding right now?
6/11/2013 6:39 PM
Let me give you an example of what I'm looking for:

Theory:  smokey is a dumbass
Data:  Read smokey's posts in this thread (or any other)
Conclusion:  Yes, smokey is a dumbass

6/11/2013 7:27 PM
Posted by smokey57 on 6/11/2013 7:08:00 PM (view original):
Sly, let me see if I have this right, you think fatigue effecting defense is a ridiculous concept? One of us is a dumbass for sure...
I believe he questioned the conclusion that: "The first thing fatigue affects is a players DEFENSE"

now I dont want to speak for him and he doesnt need me to but if I were to unpack that statement the first thing that jumps out at me is the phrase "the first thing" - there is no first thing, no sequence or chain of events etc there is an overall impact on all phases of a player's game, no hierarchy to speak of 

here's the FAQ in case you want to learn something:
The Coach's Office displays each player's condition from 0% to 100% where 100% is no fatigue and 0% is completely exhausted.

 

If a player is fatigued you may want to rest him for a few games. The amount of rest needed depends on the player and what condition he is in.

 

A player's condition is calculated by comparing total real life minutes to the total SimLeague minutes based on the current minutes per game projected to 82 games.

 

Make sure to take total minutes into account when drafting. For seasons where teams played fewer than 82 games, players are given credit for total minutes prorated to 82 games. So a player who played 20 minutes every game in an 82 game season is equal to a player who played 20 minutes every game in a 50 game season.

 

The fatigue percent is approximately the percentage of performance you can expect from the player. Fatigue effects nearly every aspect of player performance.
6/11/2013 7:43 PM
Can you at least break this into tiers smokey? 

Against 90+ defense, usages were: 11, 15, 28, 21, 21, 19, 20, 19, 19, 13, 10 for an average of 17. 

Against 61 and below, usages were: 17, 22, 20, 17, 25, 20, 13, 18, 24, 24, 15 for an average of 19.5

61 to 90 were:14, 20, 27, 21, 23, 21, 18 for an average of 20.6

I get an average usage of ~19 out of these 30 games.



6/11/2013 7:45 PM
I actually like the idea of this theory.  MJ would probably take less shots against Glove than he would against Kenny Smith because...well wouldn't you?!  If you don't think you can score over a guy, you are less likely to even try.

But.... I don't think this example has proven anything. 
6/11/2013 7:53 PM
Posted by smokey57 on 6/11/2013 7:32:00 PM (view original):
I post this data so that other owners can consider it, draw their own conclusions and use the 411 as they see fit. I hope it improves your game. GL to the 99.9% of the owners who understand this...
understand this

if your player is at 90% fatigue his effectiveness across the board is reduced by 10% - you dont need to do a study or come up with some arcane theory about it, it's in the FAQ dummy
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