7/22/2013 1:38 PM
Would you rather:

Votes: 20
(Last vote received: 4/13/2014 7:46 PM)
7/22/2013 1:41 PM
Wouldn't the answer largely depend on your lifestyle?
7/22/2013 2:10 PM
Yep, need to know the context of the question before I could answer.
7/22/2013 2:38 PM
Right now, a genie appears and gives you this option.  $1 million appears in your bank account, or he flips a coin for $100 million.
7/22/2013 2:58 PM
OK, here's what I mean.    1m doesn't allow me to retire.    Give me that option 30 years ago and my answer is different because 1m was more money than I could imagine.
7/22/2013 3:13 PM
$1M is a lot of money for me, and would make my life considerably easier for a while.  But I wouldn't retire, obviously, same as you.  So the question is essentially, would you like a million and be able to do something nice for yourself, pay off your mortgage, invest it so you can retire a little earlier, etc, or would you roll the dice and not have to worry about money ever again?  I think it's pretty much the same question regardless of your age, unless you're in dire need of money or something.
7/22/2013 3:21 PM
MIKETITTY WOULD ARGUE WITH A MIRROR

SHET UP SHETTIN UP
7/22/2013 3:22 PM
I'd rather have a 100% chance of winning $1M than a 50% chance of winning $0.

Retirement isn't coming either way.  But I could put $1M to better use than I could $0.
7/22/2013 3:26 PM
I agree.  I could do a lot of good with the million.  And I'd also feel like complete **** if I lost the coin flip.
7/22/2013 3:34 PM
1m isn't a "life-changer" so to speak.   100m is. 

Not that I couldn't use 1m but, if it's "free money", I'd take a chance on a life-changing amount.
7/22/2013 3:39 PM
I guess it largely depends how you are financially.  If you've paid off your mortgage, have money in the bank, are planning to retire within 10 years or whatever...the million really isn't a life changer.  I get that.  

It's just interesting that the expected value of choosing option B is 50x the value of choosing option A.  But I would expect that the majority of people would choose A.



7/22/2013 3:55 PM
The smart play is to go for the $100 million. You're betting $1 million for 2-1 odds and getting a 100-1 payout. That said, $1 million guaranteed is too much to risk on a coin flip. I'd take the million.
7/22/2013 4:05 PM
Change the odds to anything else and I take the million.   
7/22/2013 4:15 PM
I have to take the coinflip.  Expectation value 50 times higher is too good of odds to pass up.  I play poker, I'm used to gambling a little if the odds are right.  You call 1 to 5 on a 1 in 3 draw on the river every time if you're a good player.  1 to 100 for a 1 in 2 draw is a no-brainer and a half...
7/22/2013 4:42 PM
That's the thing.  It's dumb to not roll the dice based on the odds.  

But how would you feel if you didn't get the $100 mil?  Knowing that you could have had a million.
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