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8/12/2013 5:10 PM (edited)
But a ground ball isn't the only thing that produces a run in that situation.

Dunn is a shell of his former self but, in his prime (say 2005), he's going to K 25% of the time, walk 17% of the time, hit a ground ball 35% of the time, and hit a fly ball 47% of the time. Of those fly balls, 22% are going to leave the park.

Why ask him to cut down on his swing if he's going to hit a ground ball 35% of time anyway? You're giving up any shot at the absolute best option (HR) in favor of increasing the odds of one of the worst options with no guarantee that he can avoid a strikeout.

EDIT: I realize that those add up to way more than 100%. Fangraphs calculates K and BB rates per PA. GB and FB are calculated per ball in play, which is way less helpful in this situation. Ignore everything I said until I can find a per PA calculation for those two.

EDIT#2: If you include HR in BIP, Dunn's rough per PA FB rate is 18% and his rough per PA GB rate is 14%. So he's going to K more often than anything else. The question is, is it worth it to try to increase that GB rate/decrease the K rate at the expense of the BB, FB, and HR rates. I don't know.

8/12/2013 4:56 PM
Actually, exactly half a run to 2 significant figures, which is all I can calculate with.  Still...
8/12/2013 5:01 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/11/2013 9:07:00 AM (view original):
Have either of you ever picked up a bat?
Yes, have you?

I never really could hit, I could pitch.  And I know I loved pitching to the HS equivalent of Adam Dunn with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

I have.  That's why I KNOW it's not just "I"ll change my approaching to hitting" and PRESTO!!!, you're a new hitter.
8/12/2013 5:05 PM
Dunn's not in his prime now.  At all.  Here are a few of my calculations:

The 10 year average is that 68% of all outs in play with 1 out and a runner on 3rd score the runner.  So on an out in play you have a run-scoring probability of 68% + .32*.269 (most of the season Konerko has hit behind Dunn, and Konerko is hitting .269 with 2 outs).  76.6% chance of scoring at least one run.

Dunn K's, there's only the .269% chance of Konerko driving in the run.  .766-.269 ~ .5.  So you've lost 50% of a run with that K.  Obviously if there are other runners on first the numbers change a bit, since double plays become a factor.  Even so you're still costing a significant fraction of a run by striking out.

I'll do the calculations later to try to figure out the cost of swinging away vs. not swinging away, but this is in direct response to your statement that "an out is an out, it's better not to get too caught up in strikeouts," which is one of the primary mantras of the sabermetrics guys - including myself at times - but is clearly wrong when we've limited ourselves to this specific scenario.
8/12/2013 5:07 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/12/2013 5:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/11/2013 9:07:00 AM (view original):
Have either of you ever picked up a bat?
Yes, have you?

I never really could hit, I could pitch.  And I know I loved pitching to the HS equivalent of Adam Dunn with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

I have.  That's why I KNOW it's not just "I"ll change my approaching to hitting" and PRESTO!!!, you're a new hitter.
I watch all kinds of Major League hitters shorten up with RISP.  All the time.  Not sure what you're watching.  I guess you are a Yankees fan, and they've been a station to station/longball team for so long now maybe you haven't had the opportunities to watch guys manufacture runs.  Watch Cabrera sometime.
8/12/2013 5:26 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Dunn's not in his prime now.  At all.  Here are a few of my calculations:

The 10 year average is that 68% of all outs in play with 1 out and a runner on 3rd score the runner.  So on an out in play you have a run-scoring probability of 68% + .32*.269 (most of the season Konerko has hit behind Dunn, and Konerko is hitting .269 with 2 outs).  76.6% chance of scoring at least one run.

Dunn K's, there's only the .269% chance of Konerko driving in the run.  .766-.269 ~ .5.  So you've lost 50% of a run with that K.  Obviously if there are other runners on first the numbers change a bit, since double plays become a factor.  Even so you're still costing a significant fraction of a run by striking out.

I'll do the calculations later to try to figure out the cost of swinging away vs. not swinging away, but this is in direct response to your statement that "an out is an out, it's better not to get too caught up in strikeouts," which is one of the primary mantras of the sabermetrics guys - including myself at times - but is clearly wrong when we've limited ourselves to this specific scenario.
Just taking a look at Dunn's career splits, it looks like he does shorten up a tiny bit. With a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, he cuts down on his ks slightly but increases his average/obp/slg significantly.

Career per 162 games:                                                            28 HR, 96 RBI, 239/368/498, 191 Ks.

Unadjusted career runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs:         19 HR, 231 RBI, 289/420/548, 113 Ks.
Adjust those to 162 games average:                                    28 HR, 348 RBI, 289/420/548, 170 Ks.
8/12/2013 6:09 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 5:07:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/12/2013 5:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/11/2013 9:07:00 AM (view original):
Have either of you ever picked up a bat?
Yes, have you?

I never really could hit, I could pitch.  And I know I loved pitching to the HS equivalent of Adam Dunn with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

I have.  That's why I KNOW it's not just "I"ll change my approaching to hitting" and PRESTO!!!, you're a new hitter.
I watch all kinds of Major League hitters shorten up with RISP.  All the time.  Not sure what you're watching.  I guess you are a Yankees fan, and they've been a station to station/longball team for so long now maybe you haven't had the opportunities to watch guys manufacture runs.  Watch Cabrera sometime.
Cabrera has a compact swing.   Dunn doesn't.      And, while this may shock you, Cabrera is a much better hitter than Dunn. 
8/12/2013 6:14 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 8/12/2013 5:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 8/12/2013 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Dunn's not in his prime now.  At all.  Here are a few of my calculations:

The 10 year average is that 68% of all outs in play with 1 out and a runner on 3rd score the runner.  So on an out in play you have a run-scoring probability of 68% + .32*.269 (most of the season Konerko has hit behind Dunn, and Konerko is hitting .269 with 2 outs).  76.6% chance of scoring at least one run.

Dunn K's, there's only the .269% chance of Konerko driving in the run.  .766-.269 ~ .5.  So you've lost 50% of a run with that K.  Obviously if there are other runners on first the numbers change a bit, since double plays become a factor.  Even so you're still costing a significant fraction of a run by striking out.

I'll do the calculations later to try to figure out the cost of swinging away vs. not swinging away, but this is in direct response to your statement that "an out is an out, it's better not to get too caught up in strikeouts," which is one of the primary mantras of the sabermetrics guys - including myself at times - but is clearly wrong when we've limited ourselves to this specific scenario.
Just taking a look at Dunn's career splits, it looks like he does shorten up a tiny bit. With a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, he cuts down on his ks slightly but increases his average/obp/slg significantly.

Career per 162 games:                                                            28 HR, 96 RBI, 239/368/498, 191 Ks.

Unadjusted career runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs:         19 HR, 231 RBI, 289/420/548, 113 Ks.
Adjust those to 162 games average:                                    28 HR, 348 RBI, 289/420/548, 170 Ks.
That's surprising, but very interesting.  Good for him.

Now I'm even more ****** at Reynolds.
8/16/2013 7:39 PM
Reynolds rules.
8/18/2013 1:12 PM
A high K SLB team does well IIRC. Low double plays hit into, and an artificially low pricetag. Hmm....
8/18/2013 1:59 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/16/2013 7:39:00 PM (view original):
Reynolds rules.
We'll see if you're saying that when he goes on one of his 2-week, .135/.220/.300 runs with 27 Ks.
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