All Forums > Sound off
9/23/2013 10:45 AM (edited)
I've come up with a different way of measuring division strength.  When you think about it, it really doesn't matter how strong the third and fourth place teams are.  The number of games you play against your division isn't significantly more than you play against other non-division teams in your respective league (AL or NL).

What really makes a division tough is when there is a really strong second place team.  Because what that does is it prevents a good third place team from making the playoffs and could prevent a really good team from getting home field advantage.

Here's an extreme example...

Division A
90-72
88-74
86-76
84-78

Division B
102-60
100-62
60-102
58-104

If your team is a borderline playoff team (high 80's in wins), and you were randomly dropped into one of those divisions (randomly replacing one of the teams currently in there) wouldn't you rather play in division A than division B?  If you just looked at the cumulative division W-L%, it had always been assumed that the person in division A is in the tougher division.  I agree that if you drop a team into division A, they will have tougher intra-divisional games than if dropped into division B.  But let's assume both divisions are in the same league (i.e. NL).  Regardless of which division you're in, you are going to play a similar number of games against the opposite division anyway, so the strength of schedule difference really isn't that significant.

What is significant is that your chances of making the playoffs are far better in division A than in division B.

That being said, I think I will measure the strength of the second place team in each division, then map each owner with the division's second place team record to see which owners are cumulatively in the "toughest divisions to make the playoffs".
9/23/2013 10:39 AM (edited)
And, before I do this, yes, I do think my rank will be near the top.  Five of my six divisions will undoubtedly advance a wildcard team, and those five second place teams are on a pace to win 95.4 games.  In two of those divisions, it's almostly assured that there will be a 90+ win third place team.  (My sixth division's second place team is 68-80, so that will bring my record down).

(Note that this measure does not take into account what your team's record is, so there is less built-in bias than simply adding up the records of all teams in your division).  It only measures whether or not there are two really good teams in your division.
9/23/2013 10:20 AM
So for comparison, here is the cumulative W-L% by owner, off all teams within the division.  This is typically going to be baised toward the top owners, since they represent 25% of the divisision.

 Owner Winning% Division W% Proj Wins justinlee_24 0.595 0.541 87.7 brianjw 0.622 0.538 87.1 ybjsports 0.557 0.533 86.4 schwarze 0.615 0.532 86.2 mildnhazy 0.565 0.528 85.5 marlowe 0.500 0.524 85.0 yankeeso7 0.552 0.522 84.5 kyleb63 0.517 0.521 84.4 njbigwig 0.542 0.520 84.2 ncih 0.497 0.518 84.0 pedrocerrano 0.539 0.517 83.8 easye7273 0.502 0.517 83.8 hacker7 0.447 0.517 83.8 cstrohmier 0.555 0.517 83.8 jfranco77 0.546 0.516 83.7 alleyviper 0.523 0.516 83.7 ejstockman 0.516 0.515 83.4 tjefferson 0.556 0.515 83.4 jdh34 0.458 0.514 83.3 newarkwilder 0.545 0.514 83.2 jbohrman 0.573 0.513 83.1 bardin 0.577 0.512 83.0 dodgebob 0.494 0.512 82.9 batandball 0.518 0.511 82.8 cmolli 0.571 0.511 82.8 halo23 0.509 0.511 82.7 shaybee 0.544 0.508 82.3 sford 0.544 0.508 82.3 besterateam 0.503 0.508 82.3 buddhagamer 0.512 0.507 82.2 bbondsmvp 0.493 0.507 82.1 contracted 0.529 0.507 82.1 koyunlu 0.539 0.507 82.1 mllama54 0.511 0.507 82.1 jtpsops 0.471 0.506 81.9 tulsaslide 0.512 0.505 81.8 darthdurron 0.465 0.504 81.6 discodemo 0.569 0.504 81.6 tucker t's 0.490 0.503 81.5 poddy 0.448 0.503 81.5 profcake 0.548 0.503 81.4 markeking 0.529 0.502 81.4 gorbyruss 0.519 0.502 81.4 toddcommish 0.447 0.501 81.2 wetwillytwo 0.518 0.501 81.2 dvorr80 0.468 0.501 81.2 cubbies84 0.528 0.501 81.2 contrarian23 0.533 0.500 81.0 slainte 0.527 0.500 81.0 oskies 0.473 0.499 80.9 2chair 0.505 0.499 80.8 footballmm11 0.454 0.498 80.7 daronb 0.482 0.498 80.7 elvisgump 0.472 0.498 80.6 rbow923 0.575 0.498 80.6 jjgreen14 0.552 0.497 80.6 national 0.479 0.497 80.5 crystalao 0.538 0.496 80.4 gigrant 0.448 0.495 80.2 beauchamp 0.539 0.495 80.2 bigmc 0.510 0.494 80.0 zlionsfan 0.440 0.494 80.0 mensu1954 0.589 0.494 80.0 relkcirts 0.464 0.493 79.8 bigsteve12 0.435 0.491 79.6 rmdriskill 0.533 0.491 79.5 dalefan1 0.463 0.491 79.5 donburgh 0.516 0.490 79.4 blackmink18 0.477 0.489 79.3 trd3 0.502 0.489 79.3 rickysdad44 0.481 0.489 79.2 shysters3 0.450 0.488 79.1 zephyr1949 0.493 0.488 79.1 odalisgagne 0.492 0.488 79.0 dougpalm 0.527 0.488 79.0 ryan_horner 0.559 0.487 78.8 hurricane86 0.400 0.486 78.7 famous_dad 0.472 0.486 78.7 just4me 0.464 0.485 78.5 elonsmitty 0.441 0.484 78.5 fooolishfool 0.443 0.484 78.5 mpitt76 0.562 0.484 78.4 bighooze 0.522 0.483 78.3 tridentric 0.398 0.481 78.0 thejuice6 0.461 0.479 77.6 leeelci 0.435 0.479 77.6 dlchow 0.502 0.478 77.4 devomac 0.482 0.478 77.4 calhoop 0.401 0.478 77.4 maddog162 0.423 0.477 77.3 thebubbaq 0.441 0.477 77.3 evil_twin 0.341 0.477 77.3 the taint 0.416 0.476 77.0 scthallfan 0.375 0.475 77.0 chisock 0.457 0.474 76.8 shadoworkcat 0.381 0.469 76.0
9/23/2013 10:22 AM
And here is the cumulative W-L%, by owner, of second place teams in each owners divisions.  This is much less biased, as you can see .400 owners, .500 owners and .600 owners among the top 10.

 Owner Winning% 2ndPlace W% Proj Wins cstrohmier 0.555 0.577 93.4 schwarze 0.615 0.568 91.9 justinlee_24 0.595 0.564 91.4 ybjsports 0.557 0.557 90.2 hacker7 0.447 0.550 89.0 hurricane86 0.400 0.548 88.8 jdh34 0.458 0.548 88.8 marlowe 0.500 0.547 88.7 markeking 0.529 0.546 88.4 bardin 0.577 0.544 88.2 yankeeso7 0.552 0.542 87.8 batandball 0.518 0.542 87.8 cmolli 0.571 0.541 87.7 tridentric 0.398 0.541 87.7 elvisgump 0.472 0.540 87.5 halo23 0.509 0.540 87.4 profcake 0.548 0.540 87.4 koyunlu 0.539 0.540 87.4 jfranco77 0.546 0.539 87.3 evil_twin 0.341 0.539 87.3 brianjw 0.622 0.538 87.2 national 0.479 0.538 87.2 ncih 0.497 0.537 87.0 mildnhazy 0.565 0.537 87.0 tjefferson 0.556 0.536 86.9 dvorr80 0.468 0.536 86.9 shaybee 0.544 0.536 86.9 njbigwig 0.542 0.536 86.8 newarkwilder 0.545 0.536 86.8 tulsaslide 0.512 0.536 86.8 alleyviper 0.523 0.536 86.8 easye7273 0.502 0.535 86.6 jjgreen14 0.552 0.533 86.3 contrarian23 0.533 0.533 86.3 rbow923 0.575 0.533 86.3 mllama54 0.511 0.533 86.3 besterateam 0.503 0.532 86.2 gigrant 0.448 0.532 86.1 mensu1954 0.589 0.530 85.9 bbondsmvp 0.493 0.529 85.8 gorbyruss 0.519 0.529 85.8 kyleb63 0.517 0.529 85.7 footballmm11 0.454 0.529 85.7 famous_dad 0.472 0.529 85.7 sford 0.544 0.529 85.7 contracted 0.529 0.529 85.7 pedrocerrano 0.539 0.528 85.6 dodgebob 0.494 0.528 85.6 dlchow 0.502 0.528 85.5 bigmc 0.510 0.527 85.4 buddhagamer 0.512 0.527 85.4 daronb 0.482 0.526 85.2 zephyr1949 0.493 0.526 85.1 toddcommish 0.447 0.525 85.0 rmdriskill 0.533 0.525 85.0 jtpsops 0.471 0.525 85.0 darthdurron 0.465 0.524 84.8 tucker t's 0.490 0.523 84.7 ejstockman 0.516 0.523 84.7 wetwillytwo 0.518 0.523 84.7 beauchamp 0.539 0.523 84.7 elonsmitty 0.441 0.522 84.6 jbohrman 0.573 0.520 84.3 discodemo 0.569 0.520 84.3 ryan_horner 0.559 0.520 84.3 2chair 0.505 0.520 84.2 oskies 0.473 0.519 84.1 maddog162 0.423 0.518 83.9 poddy 0.448 0.517 83.8 slainte 0.527 0.517 83.8 crystalao 0.538 0.517 83.8 odalisgagne 0.492 0.517 83.8 devomac 0.482 0.517 83.8 dalefan1 0.463 0.516 83.6 just4me 0.464 0.516 83.5 cubbies84 0.528 0.515 83.5 mpitt76 0.562 0.515 83.5 blackmink18 0.477 0.515 83.4 zlionsfan 0.440 0.514 83.3 trd3 0.502 0.513 83.1 relkcirts 0.464 0.511 82.8 bigsteve12 0.435 0.511 82.8 fooolishfool 0.443 0.508 82.3 dougpalm 0.527 0.506 81.9 bighooze 0.522 0.505 81.8 leeelci 0.435 0.504 81.6 shysters3 0.450 0.502 81.4 rickysdad44 0.481 0.502 81.4 calhoop 0.401 0.502 81.4 donburgh 0.516 0.502 81.4 shadoworkcat 0.381 0.500 81.0 scthallfan 0.375 0.499 80.8 the taint 0.416 0.497 80.4 thejuice6 0.461 0.493 79.9 chisock 0.457 0.491 79.5 thebubbaq 0.441 0.490 79.4

9/23/2013 10:36 AM
cstrohmier's divisions look like this...

(Projected wins)
70M.... 1st 98 wins, 2nd 92 wins*
80M.... 1st 92 wins, 2nd 91 wins*
90M.... 1st 96 wins, 2nd 96 wins (cstrohmier 83)
100M.... 1st 91 wins, 2nd 88 wins*
110M.... 1st 100 wins, 2nd 100 wins*
120M.... 1st 94 wins, 2nd 94 wins  (cstrohmier 87)

* cstrohmier's team

He's on a pace to have his top four teams average almost 93 wins and could win zero divisions.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, here are thebubbaq's divisions...

(Projected wins)
70M.... 1st 91 wins, 2nd 74 wins
80M.... 1st 90 wins, 2nd 84 wins
90M.... 1st 94 wins, 2nd 83 wins
100M.... 1st 85 wins, 2nd 80 wins
110M.... 1st 94 wins, 2nd 77 wins
120M.... 1st 91 wins, 2nd 78 wins
9/25/2013 9:01 AM
Ugh, another 1-5 session. Desperately trying to make the playoffs in three leagues. A 3-way tie for the Wild Card in one, 2 game lead for Wild Card in another. Please SIM gods, do the right thing.
9/26/2013 6:32 PM
I have a .561 winning percentage overall and am still in pretty serious danger of having only 2 playoff teams.
9/26/2013 6:47 PM
I had 2 pretty good teams,  1 good team, 1 normal team, 1 pretty bad team, and 1 super bad team.  Lucked out with 3 playoff teams.  overall i will finish again in the bottom half of all teams, which is where i usually end up just get there differently each time.  My first playoff teams.
9/26/2013 7:08 PM
I will once again finish out of the cage, but as always this has been a blast.

Any other non-round-2 qualifiers interested in participatiing in a 120M theme league where we use the rosters we would have used had we advanced?
9/27/2013 2:03 PM
Posted by contrarian23 on 9/26/2013 7:08:00 PM (view original):
I will once again finish out of the cage, but as always this has been a blast.

Any other non-round-2 qualifiers interested in participatiing in a 120M theme league where we use the rosters we would have used had we advanced?
I'd be game for that.
9/27/2013 2:10 PM
Lg 6, Game 161, just some CRAP that happened...

With all of my bullpen rested at 100% the SIM leaves my starter, who is less than 100% and set to 4 for call bullpen, in to give up 7 runs in 6.2 IP
In the 9th, with 1 out and a runner on 2nd, the SIM lets my pitcher bat (I have like 7 other good relievers, including my closer all rested ready to go)

I lose 9-7.

One game to play and now, with 91 wins, I am 1 game out of the WC!
9/27/2013 2:18 PM
1 game left and I have 3 teams on the bubble for playoff spots.  Two have clinched.  So I can have anywhere from 2 to 5 make it.  WOW!  It's gonna be a long few hours today....
9/27/2013 4:36 PM
Posted by ybjsports on 9/27/2013 2:18:00 PM (view original):
1 game left and I have 3 teams on the bubble for playoff spots.  Two have clinched.  So I can have anywhere from 2 to 5 make it.  WOW!  It's gonna be a long few hours today....
I feel your pain.  That was me last year.  Three teams missed the playoffs by one game, one of those in a play-in game.  If I remember correctly, they all had a chance going into game 162.  I ended up with only two playoff teams and plummeted to finish in 29th place.  (Not to jinx you or anything!)  Good luck!
9/27/2013 6:20 PM
There's something kind of terrifying as appearing in 25th place in the standings (even if it is, technically, tied for 23rd I guess??)
9/27/2013 6:24 PM
Game 162 results...

 WC1 70M ALPHAS Theme MLB105791 87-75 4th Place L: 8 - 1 45-36 WC2 80M .289 2.06 Theme MLB105792 93-69 1st Place L: 5 - 4 44-37 WC3 90M CLEVELAND 1902-1926 Theme MLB105770 93-69 2nd Place L: 3 - 1 41-40 WC4 100M 1910 BOS 1918 CHW Theme MLB105786 91-71 1st Place L: 9 - 8 46-35 WC5 110M ALL IN Theme MLB105777 88-74 2nd Place L: 7 - 5 44-37 WC6 120M 08 19 23 64 75 Theme MLB105802 91-71 2nd Place L: 6 - 1 48-33
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