11/13/2013 11:29 AM
My call to win it all...

This is a very unique situation for me. I'm not sure that it has happened before. All my Way Too Early Final Four picks were actually seeded into different regions in the national tournament. And as I crunched the numbers based on growth and season performance, they all remained what my numbers say are the top teams within their respective divisions. Talk about letting it ride! Anyhow, here goes...

Midwest -- The pick here is for the 3 seed Webster, which lost its only game this season by 10 points to Millsaps. Well, lookie there, Millsaps is teh top seed in the region and comes in just a smidge behind Webster. My pick could get tested early though. Perennial powerhouse Johnson & Wales, like the entire GNE, is down this season and sitting as a 6 seed. That would mean a possible round 2 confrontation that could derail my pick.

East -- Emory. Emory, Emory, Emory. This region is theirs to lose. Although phalla's crew has tasted defeat a few times this season, it's hard to see another team making a push at them from this region. I give them a depth edge against Palm Beach Atlantic should the 1 v. 2 pairing shape op. Lynchmob's US Merchant Marines team might be numerically the strongest of the lot below that. So, I say it once again...Emory.

South -- This would perhaps be the most crazily balanced region I've ever looked at were it not for the presence of bdpoor and Colorado up there in the No. 1 seed. Much like Emory in the East, Colorado clearly has a little something extra that the other teams in this region do not and that elevates them in my eyes to a clear favorite's status. Best-poised to challenge them would probably be the 5 seed of Ursinus. Below that, you could throw the names of the other eight schools that make up the top 10 seeds in this region into a hat and draw names. It'd be as good a strategy as any and all of them could stake pretty similar claims to being "the best of the rest."

West -- The West, as always, could get a little bit wild, and I'll be watching it closely. The number crunching likes the upsets here, calling both the 1 and the 2 seeds as potentially vulnerable after round 1. The favorite, I think, is hiding clear down as the 5 seed as last year's PIT champion Texas Lutheran has just one loss and is buried on the bracket. If the ASC reps don't power through, then flip a coin and take your pick from the University tandem of Dallas and Louisiana, the latter has 10 losses this season, but in the stacked University that claimed two No. 1 seeds this postseason, that's hardly a mark of shame.

So...there we go. The most boring prediction show ever as I let it ride from Day 1. But what about that Final Four?

Texas Lutheran knocks off Webster in a down-to-the-wire thriller. Emory wins a slugfest with Colorado to set up the championship game.
And Emory returns to the pinnacle of Rupp Division III in the championship game. Someone call my bookie and set it up! I'm outta here!
11/13/2013 12:11 PM
Here are my tourney odds: skydrive.live.com/redir

Seed Team Rating 32 16 8 4 2 1
1 Millsaps 56.96 99.30% 93.44% 80.68% 65.01% 48.85% 26.56%
16 Baptist Bible 48.00 0.70% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Oglethorpe 51.96 66.82% 5.40% 1.69% 0.37% 0.06% 0.00%
9 Redlands 50.35 33.18% 1.06% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
4 Willamette 53.33 74.37% 36.19% 6.03% 2.17% 0.65% 0.10%
13 New England 50.96 25.63% 5.76% 0.28% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Penn St. Altoona 53.99 67.38% 43.52% 9.60% 4.23% 1.59% 0.32%
12 John Carroll 52.32 32.62% 14.53% 1.53% 0.38% 0.08% 0.01%
2 Dickinson 52.01 55.86% 24.61% 5.17% 0.50% 0.09% 0.01%
15 Ohio Wesleyan 51.46 44.14% 16.79% 2.79% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
7 Northland 52.02 41.53% 22.14% 4.66% 0.45% 0.08% 0.01%
10 Howard Payne 52.83 58.47% 36.46% 10.49% 1.51% 0.37% 0.04%
3 Webster 55.17 81.32% 51.75% 42.71% 15.72% 8.22% 2.63%
14 Sewanee 51.98 18.68% 5.11% 2.33% 0.22% 0.04% 0.00%
6 Johnson and Wales 54.48 89.53% 42.31% 31.66% 9.19% 4.02% 0.99%
11 Cazenovia 50.01 10.47% 0.83% 0.20% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Emory 55.79 99.53% 74.24% 68.54% 49.52% 22.49% 8.91%
16 Polytechnic 46.28 0.47% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 UMass, Dartmouth 52.27 34.31% 5.79% 3.22% 0.93% 0.11% 0.01%
9 Wentworth Tech. 53.77 65.69% 19.96% 14.51% 6.76% 1.52% 0.28%
4 Worcester St. 52.20 69.48% 43.13% 7.36% 2.06% 0.23% 0.02%
13 Lynchburg 50.34 30.52% 12.23% 0.81% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Whittier 51.75 73.17% 37.67% 5.27% 1.23% 0.10% 0.01%
12 SUNY Cortland 49.51 26.83% 6.97% 0.29% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Palm Beach Atlantic 54.84 96.33% 81.68% 57.33% 27.58% 9.30% 2.65%
15 Franklin 48.49 3.67% 0.74% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Trinity (TX) 51.27 46.93% 7.66% 2.20% 0.27% 0.02% 0.00%
10 W. New England 51.57 53.07% 9.92% 3.16% 0.44% 0.03% 0.00%
3 Simpson 52.69 42.03% 18.29% 5.71% 1.33% 0.18% 0.02%
14 Hardin-Simmons 53.45 57.97% 30.29% 12.07% 3.76% 0.73% 0.11%
6 U.S. Merchant Marines 53.66 64.94% 37.17% 15.71% 5.28% 1.13% 0.20%
11 Earlham 52.23 35.06% 14.25% 3.76% 0.71% 0.08% 0.01%
1 Colorado 55.91 98.44% 85.31% 58.34% 43.30% 17.52% 8.40%
16 Carroll 48.14 1.56% 0.20% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Greensboro 52.08 49.31% 7.05% 1.77% 0.51% 0.04% 0.00%
9 Hamline 52.15 50.69% 7.44% 1.91% 0.57% 0.04% 0.00%
4 Wooster 54.03 88.39% 40.12% 13.43% 6.96% 1.39% 0.35%
13 College of NJ 49.80 11.61% 1.00% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Ursinus 54.78 92.96% 58.07% 24.46% 14.87% 4.07% 1.38%
12 Hood 49.60 7.04% 0.81% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 S. Vermont 54.47 96.46% 53.54% 33.61% 13.40% 3.22% 0.98%
15 Frostburg St. 48.06 3.54% 0.16% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 New York U. 54.18 56.70% 27.96% 16.62% 6.06% 1.29% 0.35%
10 Calvin 53.56 43.30% 18.34% 9.59% 2.82% 0.46% 0.10%
3 Ozarks 53.76 95.25% 71.18% 33.06% 10.47% 1.87% 0.43%
14 Salem St. 47.84 4.75% 0.64% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Austin 51.91 81.30% 26.63% 7.00% 1.04% 0.07% 0.01%
11 Nichols 48.72 18.70% 1.55% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Piedmont 52.92 94.46% 53.96% 5.75% 2.45% 0.60% 0.09%
16 Roger Williams 47.28 5.54% 0.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Vassar 52.44 51.53% 23.92% 1.95% 0.72% 0.14% 0.02%
9 Occidental 52.29 48.47% 21.71% 1.62% 0.57% 0.11% 0.01%
4 Louisiana 52.98 79.56% 8.60% 4.64% 2.01% 0.50% 0.08%
13 Elmhurst 50.02 20.44% 0.41% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Texas Lutheran 57.49 93.78% 88.35% 84.78% 79.89% 64.21% 43.93%
12 Wisconsin, La Crosse 52.08 6.22% 2.65% 1.16% 0.38% 0.07% 0.01%
2 Ramapo 52.87 71.49% 38.12% 15.84% 1.76% 0.42% 0.06%
15 Maranatha Baptist Bible 50.80 28.51% 8.55% 1.71% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
7 Capital 53.00 56.81% 32.13% 13.87% 1.64% 0.41% 0.07%
10 Wittenberg 52.37 43.19% 21.20% 7.61% 0.64% 0.12% 0.01%
3 Dallas 54.11 84.76% 58.66% 40.67% 7.88% 2.96% 0.77%
14 Christopher Newport 50.45 15.24% 4.17% 1.13% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Mount St. Mary 52.95 62.29% 26.23% 14.60% 1.68% 0.42% 0.07%
11 Misericordia 51.79 37.71% 10.94% 4.57% 0.28% 0.04% 0.00%


11/13/2013 3:37 PM
So bullman's numbers like Millsaps more than mine do. We agree on the other three regions and...WOW...Texas Lutheran really, REALLY likes bullman's numbers!!
11/13/2013 7:32 PM
I will be watching Texas Lutheran real closely.  I have had them as my #1 team all season, but the WIS RPI and Projection ratings have had them much lower.
11/13/2013 10:36 PM
Off topic… regarding the best damn conference in the land.  Rumors are that 2 coaches are moving on after this season, taking their talents elsewhere in Rupp D3.

Also rumored a coach from Knight conference will be taking over a team in University….

Meanwhile, Millsaps players are reportedly fuming over the perceived lack of respect by the National media.  "We'll let our playing do the talking" said conference player of the year (and oh-so-close-to-being-the-all time leading scorer at Millsaps), Clyde Peguero.
11/13/2013 11:18 PM
So the #1 ranked team that finished second in its own division is complaining about a lack of respect? Interesting. :)
11/14/2013 2:35 AM
I never post on here but need the vent: The #7 seed was not a favorable place to be this season. All four teams got upset by the #10 seed. In my case, in overtime with one second left. Not sure if am more irked by that - or my senior starting point guard fouling out in three minutes of play. I was shocked to see Texas Lutheran and another #5 go down!
11/14/2013 9:26 AM
Ajillie, not trying to throw a wench in your beef, but just wanted to point out that in the real thing, 7 and 5 seeds go down all the time.
11/14/2013 10:57 AM
Stunned Texas Lutheran went down.  It's always hard to go against a relative unknown with poor SOS but great record.

I have felt all season that there are not any dominant teams this year.  Lots of powerhouses in rebuilding modes.  Will be interesting to see how everything plays out.
11/14/2013 10:59 AM
Hmmm.  Time to tweak the formula?
11/14/2013 12:12 PM

Round of 64 recap...

Midwest -- After a pedestrian first half, #1 Millsaps outscored Baptist Bible  by 31 in the second half to cruise 95-58. They get Oglethorpe, which rallied from two down at the half to win 61-48 over Redlands. The latter school struggled for just 19 points after intermission. John Carroll didn't have a player score more than 10 points, but that was enough for the 12-seed to pull the upset of No. 18 Penn St. Altoona 68-58 thanks to some strong production off the bench. Now they'll get #11 and 4-seed Willamette, which needed a pair of Richard Muraski free throws and a Henry Conroy block of a layup with 1 second to play to force overtime. From there, conditioning took over in an 82-73 OT win over New England. All week, Cazenovia fans were talking about their school's first-ever NT appearance. This morning, they may be wishing they'd missed the dance again as #21 Johnson and Wales did a 100-55 Spider Monkey lambada all over them. Charles Pettis went off for 27 points for J-Dub. Now they get #5 Webster in a 3 v. 6 pairing. Webster won 73-58 over Sewanee in a game they had to open up in the second half. The 10-seed of Howard "brought the" Payne sent Northland packing with an 84-77 win. Craig Allen's 20 points in 19 minutes and Northland's 17 turnovers appear the likely culprits. And sticking with a theme, #10 Dickinson also found itself in a close game at the half before extending to a 78-64 win over Ohio Wesleyan as the 2 seed in the region.

East -- In the East, top-seed Emory, the tournament favorite in *ahem* SOME publications, rolled to a 93-52 win over Polyann, er, Polytechnic. That was a 58.2% shooting display for phalla's crew. Now they get 9-seed Wentworth, which outran UMass Dartmouth in the second half for an 87-77 victory in the 8-9 coinflip. Keep an eye on sophomore Joseph Marrs, off the bench with five steals in the contest! #23 Whittier survived the curse of the 5 seed, thanks in part to a controversial illegal screen call whistled against SUNY Cortland with 11 seconds to play in a 57-54 final. Life wasn't easy for #9, but 4-seed, Worcester St. either in a 69-63 win over Lynchburg. Committing just 9 turnovers really helps in these close affairs. Speaking of turnovers, committing 23 of them usually doesn't bode well, and such was the case for Earlham in an 81-67 loss to #17 US Merchant Marines. Danger lurks on the horizon though as USMM now has to face dangerous 14-seed Hardin-Simmons. Never underestimate a vet coach with an unheralded team, because they have nothing to lose. Prime example last night as they just ran 3-seed Simpson out of the gym 108-77. Ouch! The numbers on that truck were David Claudio's 26 and Michael Evans' 22..in just 39 combined minutes. Western New England scored a timely 14-0 run late in its game against Trinity for a 76-69 upset as the 10-seed. Now, instead of a 7-seed, they'll be looking to knock down #7 Palm Beach Atlantic, which opened a double-figure lead in the first half to cruise 78-62 past Franklin. Sadly, Simmy did not kneecap Martin Perry, who netted 30 points and will likely shell me to the same tune tonight.

South -- Top seed Colorado needed back-to-back OT wins to win the So. Cal. tournament. Screw the drama, they said in a 98-54 dismantling of Carroll. Next up, 9-seed Hamline, which had drama in a 93-84 OT win over Greensboro. Hamline saw a 16 point halftime lead and a 6-point lead with 1:16 to play evaporate. Christopher Gaskell had to block a layup with one tick remaining to get it to OT. #14 Ursinus endured in an 80-70 win over Hood that saw them rally from a point down at the break. 23 points in 18 minutes from William Hayes in the win. Now comes #15 Wooster, a comfortable 85-62 winner over the College of New Jersey. Should we make an observation here about pseudochamp's second round struggles? Nah, we'll be merciful. The 6-seed Austin worked extra minutes in a 94-89 win over Nichols. It's deep sighs of relief for Austin to be moving on after a 7-point lead with 3 minutes to play vanished in regulation. They'll have to step it up against #13 Ozarks, 98-68 burner of witches and basketball nets against Salem St. Forcing 29 turnovers also helped. Calvin got a free-throw line jumper from William Ray with 1 second left in an 87-86 win over New York U. The wild overtime ending made up for a dull finish to regulation where neither team scored in the final 1:22 with a tie score showing. Now they face #12 South Vermont, which raced to a 96-77 win over Frostburg, 58.7% shooting and just 8 turnovers will be a tough formula to top.

West -- Top seeded #3 Piedmont had an unfair advantage as five of its guys ganged up on some dude named Roger Williams for an 84-43 victory. Roger shot just 30.8% from the floor. Now they face Occidental, who presumably will have five guys on the court, after a 71-67 win over #22 Vassar as the 9 seed. Dalton Little had a little to say about it with 27 points. Man down! Man-fricking-down! Fifth-seeded and #8 ranked Texas Lutheran got 12'd by Wisconsin-La Crosse. They'll be struggling to figure this one out in Seguin as TLU lost a 12-point halftime lead in a 74-72 loss. UWLC used 53.5% shooting to compensate for a 37-25 rebounding deficit as it unceremoniously sent packing the team that *ahem* SOME publications had called the tournament favorite. Better watch out #25 Louisiana. You're next in the underdog's path after your 81-62 win over Elmhurst. THe 51-point first half sealed the deal. #19 Mount St. Mary marches on with a workmanlike 78-67 win over Misericordia. Some day I'll have to look up how they named that college. Following the lead of the region's top seed, #20 Dallas ganged up on some guy named Christopher Newport. Good thing they only let one guy on the court, because Dallas barely squeaked by 67-63 in the contest. 10-seed Wittenberg slipped past Capital 70-63 in a battle for Buckeye State bragging rights. Now comes #4 Ramapo, which didn't give Maranatha Baptist Bible a prayer, holding the 15-seed to 31& shooting in an 87-50 yawnfest.

11/14/2013 5:18 PM
"Spider Monkey lambada"  That would make a great band name.

Great job with the recap, red.  And thanks for not mentioning my NT second round struggles, mighty fine of you.

11/14/2013 11:06 PM
Posted by pseudochamp on 11/14/2013 5:18:00 PM (view original):
"Spider Monkey lambada"  That would make a great band name.

Great job with the recap, red.  And thanks for not mentioning my NT second round struggles, mighty fine of you.

Anything for you pseudo. I had/have that same second round thing (4-16 lifetime, likely heading for 4-17 after tonight...). Sadly, my best run in this game came as a 16 seed that snuck into the D2 tournament at 61 on the Projection Report. We reached the Elite Eight before losing to a team we'd defeated in the regular season for a spot in the Final Four.
11/15/2013 9:28 AM (edited)
Interesting to see that 11 of the top 16 seeds remain in the tournament.

Only 2 double digit seeds are still playing (#12 seeded John Carroll coached by whit6r, and #10 seeded Wittenberg coached by darnoc29099).  (edit: I was curious - this is the same as the last season NT; and in seasons 66+67 there were 3 double-digit seeds in each S16)  Conclusion:  don't be a double-digit seed.

Given that the other 'upsets' are two #6 seeds and one #5 seed, this tournament hasn't been too far off the seedings.

I think conferences with multiple teams still alive are:
University:  4
USA South:  2
Centennial:  2
11/15/2013 10:56 AM
Round of 32 recap

Midwest -- #1 Millsaps again used a strong second half to pull away from Oglethorpe for a 72-58 win. Clyde Peguero's 24 points were huge. Now the top seed will face 12-seed John Carroll, the highest seed to advance to the Sweet 16. It was another good night of shooting for John Carroll, which canned 52.3% from the floor. The bottom half of the bracket brings #4 Webster, an 86-76 winner over Johnson & Wales last night, thanks in part to Stephen Brough's 20 points off the bench, to play against #8 Dickinson. Dickinson and Howard Payne combined for 103 points in the first half of their clash. Unfortunately for the Payne-ters, Dickinson was able to keep the pace for a full 40 minutes in what turned into a 108-83 rout. William Platt with 25 points, Samuel Ganey added 21 in the victory.

East --  #5 Emory pulled away in the second hlaf for a 69-55 win over Wentworth. The East's top seed was lights-out from the floor, hitting 56.1% for the game and a ridiculous 14-for-18 in the second half (by contrast, they were just 12-of-20 at the charity stripe, perhaps Wentworth should have fouled more?). They have a sweet 16 date with #10 Worcester as Simmy attempts to accomplish something not seen in 69 seasons -- striking a blow and winning the D3 title in Rupp for all the AI's in the world. They got one step closer with a 68-60 win over Whittier. Down low on the bracket, #13 US Merchant Marines slowed down 14-seed Hardin-Simmons for a 77-67 victory. USMM trailed by one at the break and endured a 29-point performance from HS's Michael Evans to score the win. They'll face #6 Palm Beach Atlantic. As predicted yesterday, Martin Perry once again went off for 30 points and PBA hit 11 of 18 second half shots to control the second half in a 77-70 win over W. New England and yours truly.

South -- #2 Colorado and newly crowned NCOY bdpoor lived up to the billing with a 69-58 win over Hamline. Look no further than 56.8% shooting to see where the top seed went right. Now they'll face #11 Ursinus, whose head coach barjaz will be looking for NT victory no. 100 tonight in the contest. Ursinus dropped Wooster 66-52, but they may be pulling a fast one on my by simply looping the first half footage over the final 20 minutes, since both halves broke down in identical 33-26 fashion. To the bottom of the bracket we go and #22 Austin upends Ozarks 97-81. Redonkulous stat of the night, Austin owned a 60-33 edge on the glass. The teams also combined for 59 turnovers, 67 fouls and 89 free throws. Let's get PHYSICAL! Assuming the assault charges are dropped, they'll take on #9 South Vermont, a 75-53 cruiser past Calvin as the 2-seed. In two NT games, South Vermont has just 17 total turnovers.

West -- #3 Piedmont, the top seed, holds off Occidental 62-56. The challengers were close several times down the stretch, but Piedmont made every play it had to for the 'W'. Stepping up for the challenge tonight will be #20 Louisiana, which took out giant-killer Wisconsin-La Crosse 72-65. On the bottom of the bracket, #19 Dallas survived scoring just 16 points after the half to advance 48-46 against Mount St. Mary. MSM had a shot to tie at the buzzer, but missed from the wing. Next up, the 10-seed of Wittenberg, which easily had the night's most exciting game. Check out this footage...8 seconds left, down 70-67, that's Ramapo's Ruben Smiley coming up short on a trey. Offensive rebound and kicked back to him. D'oh! Short again. Another offensive rebound -- you gotta box out people! Kick it back to the kid again at the buzzer and...THIRD TIME'S THE CHARM!!!! He put a little muscle into it and we go to overtime. But in the extra period, Wittenberg is able to get a two-possession lead late and convert every time they needed in an 84-80 victory over the 2-seed.

That's your Sweet 16. Should be an interesting night!
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