All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > On the block 2013 offseason trade targets?
11/21/2013 3:40 PM
OTOH, if Prince has a big year this year or next and Detroit comes up a little bit short, they may be left having second thoughts...

Or if either team knocks the other out of the playoff and the traded guy has a big series, but that's always a risk in a blockbuster deal between highly competitive teams.

11/21/2013 4:24 PM
Dave Cameron did a write up on this trade from the perspective of the Tigers. According to him:

From the Tigers perspective, this can simply be looked at as swapping Fielder for Kinsler and the right to re-spend $76 million on something else. And there’s just no way that’s not a huge win for the Tigers.


And

The Tigers turned a $168 million +3 WAR player into a $92 million +3 WAR player, once you account for the cash they’re sending to Texas, only the +3 WAR player they’re getting fits their roster better and allows them to keep Miguel Cabrera healthier and opens a spot for their best prospect. And they saved $76 million in the process, which can probably buy them another three wins assuming they spend it decently. There’s a good chance that, at the end of the day, the Tigers will have taken that $168 million they owed Fielder and basically doubled the return they could have expected from keeping him.
11/21/2013 5:04 PM
Yea, that's sounds about right.  When I was told about the trade, I asked "Yea, and how much money is Texas getting?" When I was told just $30 million I actually laughed out loud.

Fielder had an .819 OPS last year and he's on the wrong side of 30.  This is going to get ugly for Texas, quickly.

 
11/21/2013 5:40 PM
This is if you can't beat them, copy them......Tigers pulled a Red Sox deal.....dump bloated salary 'talent', fill the spots with a better team
11/21/2013 9:59 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/21/2013 5:04:00 PM (view original):
Yea, that's sounds about right.  When I was told about the trade, I asked "Yea, and how much money is Texas getting?" When I was told just $30 million I actually laughed out loud.

Fielder had an .819 OPS last year and he's on the wrong side of 30.  This is going to get ugly for Texas, quickly.

 
You may want to take ballparks into account. I wouldn't be surprised if Prince hits 50HR again next year, in Arlington.
11/21/2013 10:53 PM
29 is the wrong side of 30? I've wasted a decade that I should have been celebrating!
11/22/2013 6:40 AM
Don't let facts get in the way.
11/22/2013 6:48 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 11/21/2013 9:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/21/2013 5:04:00 PM (view original):
Yea, that's sounds about right.  When I was told about the trade, I asked "Yea, and how much money is Texas getting?" When I was told just $30 million I actually laughed out loud.

Fielder had an .819 OPS last year and he's on the wrong side of 30.  This is going to get ugly for Texas, quickly.

 
You may want to take ballparks into account. I wouldn't be surprised if Prince hits 50HR again next year, in Arlington.
He hit 30 2 years ago, and 25 last year. I would be shocked if he doubled him HR total because he plays in a different park for half the season.
11/22/2013 6:49 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/22/2013 6:40:00 AM (view original):
Don't let facts get in the way.
Yea, seriously, man, come on.

He turns 30 in May. I saw he was 29 for the 2013 season, so I figured...you know.
11/22/2013 7:49 AM
There's a few dubious claims in Cameron's article. If everything he says comes true, then of course it's a good trade for the Tigers.

First of all, it's this whole love affair with WAR that I still don't think has any bearing on the game. Without going into massive statistics in this post, Kinsler's WAR in the last 5 seasons is 24.2 (bbr.com) with an OPS+ of 107, and Fielder's is 19.2 with an OPS+ of 147. Obviously defense is in there, but these numbers just don't add up for me.
So blindly saying they swapped one 3.0 WAR player for another, implying they are totally equal value players, is silly. (By the way, neither player has ever had a 3.0 WAR!)

If Fielder continues his mediocre offense from last year, clearly it's a good trade for the Tigers. If he has a bounceback year at 30 (no reason he couldn't!) then he's clearly a much, much better offensive player than Kinsler.

Also, Cameron claims that it will "keep Cabrera healthier". Well, maybe... who knows? I suppose moving to first might be better for him, but he still has to play the field every day. Just making that claim doesn't necessarily make it true.

All in all, it could be a good move for the Tigers, but it's not so cut-and-dry. This could also work out great for the Rangers. There are only so many premier hitters in the league, even at 1B. Until last season, Prince was certainly among them.

11/22/2013 8:14 AM
I think the next three seasons are what Texas was aiming for.   Windows close.   I won't pretend to know the inner workings of the Rangers' payroll situation, contract status of top players or prospects waiting in the wings.   But, if Fielder can hit in 14-15-16 and the Rangers make the post-season, they'll consider it a win and deal with the back end of the contract when the time comes.    As for the Tigers, they were obviously clearing some payroll to keep some of their young players.  And, as I understand it, they have a 3B prospect they're ready to bring up.

FWIW, I don't think moving Miggy to 1B will help "keep him healthy".   It's not like he was running around like a CF over at 3B.   The ball was hit to him and he caught.  Or, if it wasn't, he let the LF handle it.   Other than the occassional ball in the face, there's not a lot of difference between 1B/3B as wear and tear goes.

11/22/2013 8:26 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/22/2013 6:48:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 11/21/2013 9:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/21/2013 5:04:00 PM (view original):
Yea, that's sounds about right.  When I was told about the trade, I asked "Yea, and how much money is Texas getting?" When I was told just $30 million I actually laughed out loud.

Fielder had an .819 OPS last year and he's on the wrong side of 30.  This is going to get ugly for Texas, quickly.

 
You may want to take ballparks into account. I wouldn't be surprised if Prince hits 50HR again next year, in Arlington.
He hit 30 2 years ago, and 25 last year. I would be shocked if he doubled him HR total because he plays in a different park for half the season.
I expect playing in warmer weather and enclosed stadiums at the beginning of the season will help some also. Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle and Houston instead of Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland? Gotta be worth a few. Definitely closer to 50 than 25 would be my guess.
11/22/2013 8:37 AM
I don't think OAK/SEA will help his HR totals.  FWIW, a ball flies further in the cold.  Dry cold.    But hitters are more uncomfortable.   However, so are pitchers.   Can't grip the ball as well.
11/22/2013 8:44 AM

Well, **** me.  I was going to produce the science behind cold weather but it appears I'm dead *** wrong.    But I hit more homers when it's colder.  I must just be extra awesome.   Yay me.

11/22/2013 8:47 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/22/2013 6:48:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 11/21/2013 9:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/21/2013 5:04:00 PM (view original):
Yea, that's sounds about right.  When I was told about the trade, I asked "Yea, and how much money is Texas getting?" When I was told just $30 million I actually laughed out loud.

Fielder had an .819 OPS last year and he's on the wrong side of 30.  This is going to get ugly for Texas, quickly.

 
You may want to take ballparks into account. I wouldn't be surprised if Prince hits 50HR again next year, in Arlington.
He hit 30 2 years ago, and 25 last year. I would be shocked if he doubled him HR total because he plays in a different park for half the season.
His last 5 years in Milwaukee he hit 38, 32, 46, 34, 50. He's now in a very good hitters park (with a lot more warm weather games), and he's going to be facing the Angels and Astros weakass pitching 19 times.
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