All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > DH52 Team Rosters & Commentary
1/5/2014 10:28 PM
Gameplay Q. How does the SimLeague Basketball SimEngine work?
  A. The SimEngine simulates a game one possession at a time. The following is a high-level view of the decision process involved in every normal possession of a simulated basketball game. Normal possessions pertain to almost 95% of all possessions, but do not cover breakaways, put-backs or late-game situations:

  1. We determine who has the ball by looking at every offensive player’s real-life possession rate. This value looks at his real-life field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. A player’s chance at having the ball for this possession is exactly relative to the real-life possession rates of the other players. If everyone has the same possession rate, everyone will have a 20% of possessing the ball. We use the composition of the team on the floor and the offensive set to determine how much time has come off the clock by the time this decision is made and the possession is terminated.
  2. Now that we have picked a player, we must determine what he will do with the ball. There are three things he can do: turn the ball over (3), shoot (5) or be fouled (4). Every player has a real-life turnover percentage, field goal attempt percentage and times fouled percentage that is relative to his total number of actual possessions. At this point, many factors can adjust those percentages and affect whether we go to step 3, 4 or 5. Generally, we will view the chance that he shoots as the amount remaining after modifications to fouled percentage and turnover percentage. These factors include: the man defending the player, the rest of the defense, the type of offense, the type of defense, a player’s fatigue value, any team under-possession penalty and the player’s over-possession penalty.
  3. If a player has committed a turnover, he may have committed a ball-handling mistake, poor pass or offensive foul. The percentage chance that an offensive foul has occurred is relative his actual personal foul rate. This is figured into the chance in the previous section. Ball-handling and passing turnovers each use a fixed percentage of the remaining chance that is based on historical averages for these turnovers. If it is one of these two types of turnovers there is a chance for a steal. This chance is based on the defenders and is relative the steal weighting used in the decision above. If a steal has occurred, there is a chance for a breakaway. Either way, the player who steals the ball is determined after the steal event is known. Each defensive player’s chance for a steal is relative to his contribution to the steal weighting in #2. If no steal has occurred, the ball simply goes to the other team.
  4.  A player has been fouled. This can be a shooting foul or a personal foul on the floor. This decision is determined using historical averages and the player’s real-life field goal attempt rate. If there is a shooting foul, a player has a chance to make the shot. We determine if it is a two or a three in the same way as we will below and the chance of making it is relative to his real-life shooting percentage, but discounted by a historical percentage. Either way, the foul is assigned to one of the defensive players. Each player’s chance of committing the foul is based on his real-life foul rate and is relative to the weighting used to determine if there is a foul in #2. If it is shooting, the shooter will be able to shoot the appropriate number of shots. If the final free-throw shot is missed, we proceed to rebounding (6). If it is not a shooting foul, we restart the possession.
  5. A shot has been attempted. Whether this is a three-point attempt is strictly based on the shooters ratio of three-point attempts to non-three-point field goal attempts. The chance that a player has of making the shot is based on his shooting percentage, the assist rates of his teammates, his defender’s stop percentage (captured by defensive rating) and to a lesser extent the other four player’s stop percentages and the block rates of all five defensive players. If the shot is made, we determine if there was an assist. Assist chances utilize a historical average as a base that is modified by the sum assist rates from the other four offensive players. If there is an assist, every player’s chances are relative to his assist rate compared to the other players. If the shot is missed, we must determine if there was a block. Block chances are relative to the weighting that each player has in the field goal make or miss decision. Either way, if the shot is missed, we must determine who gets the rebound.
  6. Every missed field goal attempt in a normal possession is rebounded. Rebounding looks at the real-life offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of all ten players on the court, though the shooter and his defender generally have less of a chance, especially in the case of a three-point attempt. We look at each one-on-one matchup for this situation (shooting team is still considered offense) to determine if one player has a better than average advantage over his opponent. These players will get a boost to their percentages, while their opponents will see their percentages drop. We then look at all ten modified percentages. The chance that an individual player has of getting the rebound is relative to how his percentage compares. If the ball is rebounded by an offensive player, there is a chance for a put-back. Assuming no put-back, the possession restarts. If the ball is rebounded by a defensive player that team begins its possession on offense.
1/5/2014 10:37 PM
You know that it's getting really hard to be a hater of yours anymore penn! After taking 2 of my favorite Blazers of all time in Bob Gross and Larry Steele with your 6th round picks me heart changing towards you LOL. 
1/6/2014 12:17 AM
Thanks for the evals ash. I was miffed a bit at first by the B grade but then I realized that you only gave out one B+ and no A grades at all. So I will take it.  I might actually start Barry at SG over Harden to get McHale a few more touches on the starting unit as well as have a better defender out there to start and end the games with. Sabonis plus Harden as super subs spell trouble for the opponents IMO. Although its value is disputed here I really like having over 3000 FTAs on my teams in this league. Foul drawing is still important I think. I like this team better than my last one. But as well all know the real key is the division draft and where your team gets placed LOL!
1/6/2014 12:27 AM
Okay ash what do you think about the decision of D Wade vs Magic in this league? Magic always seems to go one pick or so higher and that is one reason that I took him over D Wade. But that 100 defense and 36 usage points and all of the foul drawing that D Wade gives you is difficult to pass up. I figured that Magic is a bit more dominant at his position than D Wade. Plus, it takes a lot of offensive rebounds to make up for all of D Wade's misses. But I did win the title here with a D Wade team that had Penny Hardaway on it to balance out the EFG% a bit. That's most likely not to happen very often now that Penny is a definite second round pick. 
1/6/2014 5:27 AM (edited)
Made a one change since I was able to pick up KJ in the 5th.. Using the lower usage Marion.  I think it's pretty fearsome lol

Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk% D
Kevin Johnson 96-97 Suns PG 22.6 51 43.8 54.6 2.3 8.2 30.9 1.7 0.3 43
Eddie Jones 97-98 Lakers SG 19.5 53.9 38.9 55.5 3.4 7.8 10.7 2.4 1.1 84
Shawn Marion 06-07 Suns SF 19.5 58.5 31.6 56.1 6.6 21.1 5.2 2.3 2.3 89
Tim Duncan 06-07 Spurs C 28.4 54.8 11 54.7 9.4 25.8 13.3 1.2 4.3 90
Tom Boerwinkle 70-71 Bulls C 16.7 50.3 34.2 50.1 12.7 32.1 19.1 1.8 3.8 62
Chris Gatling 96-97 Mavericks PF 32.1 53.5 16.5 53.4 11.5 21.1 3 1.4 1.6 48
Cory Alexander 97-98 Spurs PG 19.8 47 37.5 51 1.5 11.2 23.2 2.5 0.5 64

1/6/2014 7:25 AM
i don't know what ash means by high t.o.'s... just have 1248 for my 12 players. using the 81-82 dr. j season (214 t.o's). anyway, doesn't matter... never seen evals (except uva's) that were correct. be shocked if any of my 5 bench players are drafted, so, pretty sure my lineup is set. thanks anyway for the evals. : )
1/6/2014 8:46 AM
Thanks for the evals, ash.  Keep 'em coming.

I can't say I disagree regarding my squad, although I'm ambitiously aiming to raise my grade to a B- by season's end.  Starting out, I was intrigued by what a tandem of Stockton and Ginobili could do.  By the bottom of the third the guy or two I'd hoped would slip to me didn't, and the Bellamy pick was a combination of panic and sheer curiosity.  His stock seems to have been rising lately; gives me a boatload of FTAs and some paint scoring without being a complete matador.  Still, I think the train started to come off the rails there, and some SFs were available that might have been more conventional choices. 

The secret is now totally out regarding Drummond (who gets picked ridiculously high given his low minutes) and Sanders (who was the magic ingredient for my championship squad two seasons ago).  I'd say big Andre is headed for the second round soon based on how his current real-life season is progressing.

1/6/2014 10:42 AM
Thanks for the evaluation, Ash. I'm going to use Dirk as Mourning's backup and using the extra minutes at SF for Noah. 12-13 Dirk could beinteresting, as I didn't find a great usage replacement to back up Zo who was still available.
1/6/2014 10:48 AM
You do look to have one of the top teams to beat eleibowitz. I wonder if you would have been better off drafting a big in the 6th to back up Boerwinkle instead of taking Cory Alexander. I totally get taking Gatling to back up Duncan. My one other question is taking KJ at PG over Derek Harper. Harper's 80 defense at about 37 mpg is really good to be available that late in the 5th round. I really like KJ but his defense is a bit weak and he plays about 32 mpg. But the team still looks really tough.
1/6/2014 11:22 AM
Posted by vancem on 1/6/2014 10:48:00 AM (view original):
You do look to have one of the top teams to beat eleibowitz. I wonder if you would have been better off drafting a big in the 6th to back up Boerwinkle instead of taking Cory Alexander. I totally get taking Gatling to back up Duncan. My one other question is taking KJ at PG over Derek Harper. Harper's 80 defense at about 37 mpg is really good to be available that late in the 5th round. I really like KJ but his defense is a bit weak and he plays about 32 mpg. But the team still looks really tough.
Vance I figured I can still get a good guy to back up Boerwinkle, there's usually a couple of guys who are not drafted... Yes I was deciding between KJ and Harper but I really didn't like Marion as my 2nd scorer.  Plus I was trying to improve my FTA vs FL given ratio.  Eddie Jones can cover for KJ D... Plus I wanted some flexibility with my PG so in certain situations I can start Cory Alexander at point if I feel the extra defense is needed.

1/6/2014 7:42 PM
Here's what I'm working with:

Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk% Def
Chauncey Billups 05-06 Pistons PG 23.0 40.7 43.1 50.9 1.6 8.1 31.7 1.2 0.2 80
Paul Pierce 10-11 Celtics SF 24.3 54.4 37.2 55.1 1.5 15.7 12.3 1.4 1.1 56
Serge Ibaka 12-13 Thunder PF 18.2 58.9 34.9 58.6 10.5 15.7 2.2 0.5 5.5 98
Swen Nater 74-75 Spurs C 17.4 54.2 0.0 54.2 13.3 32.5 3.8 0.6 1.6 36
David Robinson 90-91 Spurs C 26.6 55.1 14.6 55.2 12.0 23.2 7.7 1.7 5.6 100
Ed Davis 12-13 Grizzlies PF 17.7 53.8 0.0 53.9 10.0 21.3 5.2 1.1 3.2 62
J.R. Smith 07-08 Nuggets SG 26.2 54.0 40.0 57.8 3.3 7.8 11.0 1.9 0.5 49

1/6/2014 8:01 PM
not bad, sly, but a little light on assists for my taste. Offense should be OK anyway, though. Rebounds are good, but not as dominating as you'd expect from the frontcourt due to low backcourt boards. Defense is probably good enough, maybe some slight issues in the backcourt. IMO it's a 40-45 win team, not really bad at anything but not sure it's a contender.
1/6/2014 8:05 PM
    Name Team Pos GP Min Pts FGM FGA 3PM 3PA FTM FTA OReb Reb Ast TO Stl Blk PF
    Dwight Howard 10-11 Magic C 78 2935 1784 619 1044 0 7 546 916 309 1098 107 279 107 186 258
    Bill Walton 76-77 Trail Blazers C 65 2264 1212 491 930 2 11 228 327 211 934 245 168 66 211 174
    Kenneth Faried 12-13 Nuggets PF 80 2248 923 380 689 0 0 163 266 260 734 77 113 81 83 234
    Clyde Drexler 94-95 Rockets SG 76 2728 1653 571 1238 147 408 364 442 152 480 362 186 136 45 206
    Jason Terry 04-05 Mavericks PG 80 2401 993 372 743 103 245 146 173 38 188 429 147 109 15 177
    Erick Dampier 03-04 Warriors C 74 2403 913 348 650 0 2 217 332 344 887 60 131 33 137 227
    Detlef Schrempf 94-95 SuperSonics SF 82 2886 1572 521 997 93 181 437 521 135 507 311 176 93 35 253
1/6/2014 8:06 PM
  Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
  90 Dwight Howard 10-11 Magic C 27.4 59.4 0.0 59.3 12.1 28.8 4.9 1.7 3.8
  93 Bill Walton 76-77 Trail Blazers C 20.8 53.1 18.3 52.9 9.4 31.5 11.8 1.1 5.0
  56 Kenneth Faried 12-13 Nuggets PF 17.8 55.0 0.0 55.2 12.6 21.5 4.1 1.6 2.1
  72 Clyde Drexler 94-95 Rockets SG 25.7 50.7 35.8 52.1 6.0 12.8 16.4 2.2 1.0
  60 Jason Terry 04-05 Mavericks PG 18.0 54.1 41.9 57.0 1.7 6.5 23.1 2.0 0.4
  49 Erick Dampier 03-04 Warriors C 17.9 54.0 0.0 53.5 15.6 24.4 3.4 0.6 3.4
  46 Detlef Schrempf 94-95 SuperSonics SF 21.0 52.1 51.2 56.9 5.4 14.1 12.9 1.4 0.7
1/6/2014 8:20 PM
Always wanted to give Detlef a try, never can seem to make it fit. Interested to see how it works. Ton of rebounds on that squad, for sure. Strong-looking squad, but defense at the 1/2/3 will be a bit of weakness.  Also pretty light on assists, which I know you don't really care about, but it might keep the team from being as efficient as you hope. I'm going with 47 wins.
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