All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Hoops Dynasty > rpi 34 no ticket to the dance
12/29/2013 11:42 AM
aarg - maryland in wooden - rpi 34, sos 56, 18 wins, including win over then 22 UNC and OT loss at then 12 Duke.....no joy in college park

59 in projection report

no dance

aarg
12/29/2013 12:47 PM
Under the eye test, this seems ridiculous...especially with you being in the ACC...tough break, man.
12/29/2013 2:01 PM
If I had to guess, I'd think it was the bad losses - the ones to RPI 205, 134 and 172.
12/29/2013 5:10 PM
Those were bad - randomness, close.  I wish the big wins late in the season offset them - its like a real Gary Williams season in his later years.

I cant say its the wrong result, but sure is frustrating - I did a real nice job scheduling but messed up in a couple of games
12/30/2013 12:36 AM
Damn that sucks. That is Missouri State-esque in the Barry Hinson days.
12/30/2013 12:44 AM
In those games, where you lost against RPI 205, 134 and 172, it's a case for, not against, especially if you can beat teams in the Top 50 and Top 100 RPI. In real life, it has the opposite effect, if the committee saw you had losses to such teams that would be a case against, but not in this game.

There is a list of criteria. However, going 6-4 in your last 10 and 2-5 vs. the Top RPI 50, may have been your downfall. Winning percentage is also a factor. Your odds are much better at getting in with a 23-4 record and 34 RPI compared with being 18-9 with a 34 RPI.

However, having an RPI of 34 and being #59 in the projection report, something is way way off.

12/30/2013 12:58 AM (edited)
www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx

I posted this a while back and thought there might have been an issue.



12/30/2013 1:21 AM
RPI need not match the projection report. The projection report need not match RPI. RPI being deemphasized as a measure is, in general, a GOOD thing, not bad. RPI is way, way, WAY too easy to game.


I'm not sure I get what you are saying, wiz. Are you saying losing those three games is a case FOR being in? That makes no sense to me, so I suspect its not what you are saying.


12/30/2013 7:28 AM
Simply put, RPI is a poor measure. It's very, very easy to cheat the RPI system, and it's fantastic that they got rid of it when figuring out NT stuff. (And this squad is a good example -- in the old engine, you would've been in based on the RPI despite the fact that your actual resume doesn't warrant a NT bid.)

mets, you said you did a really good job of scheduling, but I'd disagree. I'm not sure what the ACC is like generally in that world, but this season it was not good. Half of the teams had a triple digit RPI, and there were zero teams in the top 20. For a power conference, that's flat-out terrible. Combine that with a non-con that featured six sims and four non-BCS humans (two of whom had 200+ RPIs), and I'd say that your scheduling was a real part of the problem.

You only played seven games vs. NT-caliber rpis (a really low total for a power conference team) and went 2-5.

Honestly, I would've been surprised had you gotten in, and I don't think this resume is deserving of a NT bid. Anticipating a weak conference and putting together a strong non-con with 1-2 high quality wins would've done it.

12/30/2013 12:43 PM
@girt, then why was his SOS at 56. Doesn't SOS mean strength of schedule? If his SOS was really bad, which I think it might have been, shouldn't of it have been lower than 56. Projection report can't say you lost to 3 sub 120 RPI teams, but your SOS says hey you did pretty good.  Projection report takes in to account top 100 RPI wins and bad loses, but so does SOS. How can they be that far off?
12/30/2013 12:47 PM
SOS only takes into account overall opponents record, not the ones you win. You say SOS takes into account RPI wins and losses, but it does not at all. Quite simply you can have the best or worst SOS no matter if you win or lose every single game. 
12/30/2013 12:52 PM
Posted by ericksonp on 12/30/2013 12:47:00 PM (view original):
SOS only takes into account overall opponents record, not the ones you win. You say SOS takes into account RPI wins and losses, but it does not at all. Quite simply you can have the best or worst SOS no matter if you win or lose every single game. 
If that is the case then that makes sense.  Always thought SOS determined wins and loses vs good or bad teams. So you could be 0-26, but have a SOS of 1.  Thanks
12/30/2013 1:04 PM
I dont disagree with the result or with girt's core point.

Fact is, we were not a really good team and the conference had a weak season.  I think that the schedule was well designed for RPI - lots of games and wins against team that won a good number of games.  But, it turned out that the schedule didnt work for us.  A meaningfully tougher schedule might well have left us with too few wins.

If we had won just one more close game against a quality opponent, we probably would have been in - like that OT at Duke or against BC at the end of the season

This result resembles well the last few seasons of Gary Williams at Maryland....... 

12/30/2013 3:30 PM
What about this team. http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=3538. They were 1-5 vs Top 50, 6-7 vs Top 100, but only 1 bad loss, 7-1 vs 151-300.  Finished 18-9, RPI 36, SOS 48.
12/30/2013 3:58 PM
Posted by terps21234 on 12/30/2013 3:30:00 PM (view original):
What about this team. http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=3538. They were 1-5 vs Top 50, 6-7 vs Top 100, but only 1 bad loss, 7-1 vs 151-300.  Finished 18-9, RPI 36, SOS 48.
Definitely a PI team.  Inflated RPI due to road wins, but a 1-5 record against top 50 RPI teams (with the lone win coming against #50) isn't good enough.  That, coupled with so many wins against mediocre teams (RPI 150-300) hurts your tourney chances.
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