2/20/2014 11:34 AM
There's a pretty wide range for where the cut could lie for the NT.  It looks like 41 and better is good, and the true bubble is 42-56....and my gut says it'll be somewhere around 50.  I know everyone has their own system for figuring this out, but here's what I've done in the past.

First, there are 7 conference championships that feature games between 2 teams greater than 64 on the projection report.  That moves my cut line down to 57.  Then I look at each conference again.  There's one conference that has a championship game featuring a team out of the top 64 and a team between 58 and 64, so that moves the cut down to 56.  Then there are 14 conf champ games featuring a team in the top 56 v a team out of the top 56, making the bubble 42-56.  Good luck to those still playing!

2/20/2014 11:49 AM
And I'm sitting on 53 after last night's action...some poor opening-round PIT opponent most likely is going to face the full wrath of WNE's Sim-crushed NT dreams this season. (either that or we'll realize we still have a foot that hasn't been shot yet and **** the pistol one more time...)

Go championship game favorites!
2/20/2014 2:20 PM
Posted by oldave on 2/20/2014 12:07:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bullman17 on 1/19/2014 11:38:00 AM (view original):
Here is a question for you guys.  How much of an affect does coaching have on a team?  For example, if a SIM coached team is rated 50 on a scale of 100, what would you say the rating would be if it was coached by a legendary coach, good coach, average coach, and a newbie?  I may try and incorporate a coaching factor into my ratings system and would appreciate any input you guys have.
hey bman,

 try factoring the effect Alvernia's  "coach" had on them this year.... you had them winning the of Penn conf and finishing with an 80ish rpi i think.   and i really dont think that was out line given thier talent.  

their new coach was able to coax one win out of them (and a nailbiter at that) and finished at 1-26 with 379 rpi.  i tried to reach  out to him but no reply.  id say ghost ship but really worse than that as he set everyone to "jack three pointers and stay in the game until dead red" before going awol.   i have pondered whether it has been better to have him as my lone confmate, or would i have preferred ettaE?  i almost cant believe im saying this, but i think id prefer ettaE
I'm actually in etta's conference (we both joined it this season) and even I admit that I would rather have a coach like him rather than one that turns into a ghost ship. As crazy as that sounds.
2/20/2014 3:57 PM
Posted by rednu on 2/20/2014 11:50:00 AM (view original):
And I'm sitting on 53 after last night's action...some poor opening-round PIT opponent most likely is going to face the full wrath of WNE's Sim-crushed NT dreams this season. (either that or we'll realize we still have a foot that hasn't been shot yet and **** the pistol one more time...)

Go championship game favorites!
: )

Hmm ... maybe that's why my wife won't let me have a gun.

Thinkin' about it  ... she's probably right  : )
2/20/2014 6:37 PM (edited)
Posted by oldave on 2/20/2014 12:07:00 AM (view original):
Posted by bullman17 on 1/19/2014 11:38:00 AM (view original):
Here is a question for you guys.  How much of an affect does coaching have on a team?  For example, if a SIM coached team is rated 50 on a scale of 100, what would you say the rating would be if it was coached by a legendary coach, good coach, average coach, and a newbie?  I may try and incorporate a coaching factor into my ratings system and would appreciate any input you guys have.
hey bman,

 try factoring the effect Alvernia's  "coach" had on them this year.... you had them winning the of Penn conf and finishing with an 80ish rpi i think.   and i really dont think that was out line given thier talent.  

their new coach was able to coax one win out of them (and a nailbiter at that) and finished at 1-26 with 379 rpi.  i tried to reach  out to him but no reply.  id say ghost ship but really worse than that as he set everyone to "jack three pointers and stay in the game until dead red" before going awol.   i have pondered whether it has been better to have him as my lone confmate, or would i have preferred ettaE?  i almost cant believe im saying this, but i think id prefer ettaE
There is an obvious flaw in my coaching effect factor in that I do not account for crap like this.  We should keep a database of users like this so that I can add a line of code where if coach=fail then rating -=100.  That would probably take care of it.

Etta kind of reminds me of my son.  He plays NBA2k14 and gets so mad that sometimes I have to go in to calm him down.  It is the only thing that can make him cry -- hit him in the head with a brick, no problem, but if the computer screws him he completely loses it.  No matter how bad it gets, he is back the next day for another go with his obsession.  I have a feeling that Etta is going to be around for a long time.
2/21/2014 10:54 AM
hey bullman - are you sure that it isn't MY son that is hanging around at your house playing NBA2k14? You just described him...hilarious!
2/21/2014 11:15 AM
Haha, I am glad to know he is not the only one :)
2/21/2014 9:33 PM
tourney odds: onedrive.live.com/redir


Seed Team Rating 32 16 8 4 2 1
1 Emory 59.22 99.30% 81.85% 69.66% 35.10% 19.19% 7.79%
16 Curry 50.25 0.70% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Ohio Wesleyan 55.58 43.82% 6.87% 2.88% 0.37% 0.06% 0.00%
9 Hamline 56.15 56.18% 11.24% 5.48% 0.92% 0.18% 0.02%
4 Transylvania 54.97 69.84% 23.83% 3.13% 0.29% 0.03% 0.00%
13 Amherst 53.07 30.16% 4.90% 0.23% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Lynchburg 56.85 76.39% 59.99% 17.57% 4.00% 1.04% 0.16%
12 Haverford 54.25 23.61% 11.28% 1.04% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Piedmont 57.47 84.67% 42.60% 11.24% 4.35% 1.44% 0.30%
15 Millikin 53.83 15.33% 2.11% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Rivier 57.96 82.34% 51.03% 15.89% 7.11% 2.76% 0.71%
10 Allegheny 54.65 17.66% 4.26% 0.29% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Hardin-Simmons 60.04 98.04% 68.99% 54.34% 38.83% 25.28% 12.92%
14 Montclair St. 52.63 1.96% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Stillman 58.31 92.88% 30.71% 18.12% 8.92% 3.86% 1.14%
11 Castleton St. 53.14 7.12% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Susquehanna 59.67 99.15% 68.48% 47.13% 32.36% 18.10% 8.39%
16 Carnegie Mellon 50.99 0.85% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Ramapo 55.07 19.11% 1.99% 0.34% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
9 Austin 58.20 80.89% 29.51% 14.88% 7.35% 2.72% 0.77%
4 Whittier 58.81 68.62% 49.17% 23.35% 13.40% 6.01% 2.12%
13 U.S. Merchant Marines 57.03 31.38% 15.87% 4.28% 1.49% 0.36% 0.06%
5 Emmanuel 57.50 66.92% 27.27% 8.74% 3.56% 1.04% 0.22%
12 Simpson 55.88 33.08% 7.69% 1.28% 0.29% 0.04% 0.00%
2 Wittenberg 59.07 97.56% 76.85% 65.59% 34.66% 16.70% 6.43%
15 Gallaudet 52.04 2.44% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Oglethorpe 56.59 58.25% 15.03% 8.69% 2.05% 0.41% 0.06%
10 Suffolk 55.80 41.75% 7.86% 3.82% 0.64% 0.09% 0.01%
3 Louisiana 56.11 55.86% 27.76% 6.23% 1.19% 0.19% 0.02%
14 St. Lawrence 55.56 44.14% 19.30% 3.42% 0.51% 0.06% 0.01%
6 Calvin 56.34 54.10% 29.75% 7.34% 1.56% 0.28% 0.04%
11 UMass, Dartmouth 55.95 45.90% 23.20% 4.88% 0.88% 0.13% 0.01%
1 Johnson and Wales 60.91 99.39% 74.18% 59.05% 40.17% 34.95% 25.96%
16 SUNY Oneonta 51.76 0.61% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Grove City 56.79 27.95% 3.62% 1.17% 0.23% 0.08% 0.02%
9 Ursinus 58.91 72.05% 22.18% 12.58% 5.36% 3.40% 1.62%
4 Penn St. Altoona 58.79 90.93% 57.39% 17.75% 7.26% 4.49% 2.07%
13 Emory and Henry 54.02 9.07% 1.24% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 John Carroll 58.13 80.49% 38.19% 9.24% 3.05% 1.64% 0.62%
12 Greensboro 55.06 19.51% 3.18% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Millsaps 58.97 97.85% 67.66% 27.71% 9.99% 6.42% 3.12%
15 Worcester St. 51.72 2.15% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Willamette 56.77 43.10% 12.26% 2.22% 0.33% 0.12% 0.03%
10 Colorado 57.41 56.90% 19.96% 4.74% 0.93% 0.42% 0.12%
3 Texas Lutheran 60.33 93.82% 82.77% 60.63% 32.06% 25.86% 17.18%
14 Buena Vista 54.91 6.18% 2.06% 0.30% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Webster 56.61 50.69% 7.81% 2.29% 0.31% 0.11% 0.02%
11 Earlham 56.55 49.31% 7.36% 2.11% 0.28% 0.10% 0.02%
1 Trinity (TX) 57.44 99.46% 82.56% 48.19% 20.75% 3.98% 1.18%
16 Stevens Tech. 48.18 0.54% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Howard Payne 54.22 53.88% 10.11% 2.19% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00%
9 E. Oregon 53.85 46.12% 7.30% 1.34% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00%
4 E. Connecticut St. 57.40 78.45% 53.75% 30.84% 13.11% 2.46% 0.72%
13 Babson 54.59 21.55% 7.68% 1.89% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00%
5 Wisconsin, La Crosse 56.31 59.70% 25.56% 11.25% 3.42% 0.39% 0.07%
12 Emerson 55.39 40.30% 13.01% 4.31% 0.92% 0.06% 0.01%
2 S. Vermont 58.48 93.35% 64.10% 38.30% 25.74% 7.53% 3.18%
15 Staten Island 53.19 6.65% 0.95% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Vassar 57.14 58.31% 22.49% 9.76% 5.05% 0.85% 0.22%
10 N. Carolina Wesleyan 56.35 41.69% 12.46% 4.25% 1.80% 0.21% 0.04%
3 Wooster 57.13 87.53% 36.50% 15.07% 7.76% 1.30% 0.34%
14 Beloit 53.04 12.47% 0.93% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Ozarks 58.31 80.37% 55.93% 31.07% 20.30% 5.58% 2.24%
11 Dickinson 55.26 19.63% 6.64% 1.41% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00%
2/21/2014 11:13 PM
My prediction to win the national championship is........Hardin-Simmons.

2/22/2014 12:55 AM
Thanks for these, bullman, very interesting! Did you include the coaching factor?
2/22/2014 1:07 AM
Sorry for not getting my usual picks in, but I've been on the road since 6:30 this a.m. with my team and, other than getting my settings in this a.m., haven't had a chance to look at the Big Dance. Won't have a chance to do the round of 64 rundown in the morning either. Sorry gang!
2/22/2014 9:15 AM
Wow that is awesome, bullman, that must take a lot of time to put those together!
2/22/2014 11:19 AM
0.02% chance of winning a championship. So you're telling me there's a chance!
2/22/2014 11:26 AM (edited)
"Wait a minute.  What was all that one in a million talk?"
2/22/2014 1:35 PM
Fun stat (well, maybe not for bullman, sorry bullman!): Remember a few weeks back when we were talking about epic OT games, and it was brought up that East Oregon beat Willamette in a 4 OT thriller? Well, those 2 played in the Northwest Conference Championship Game, and East Oregon won...in OT!
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