1/16/2014 6:03 PM
i guess i start to think about going to -1 when a player hits 50PE (d3)  

but in the end for me it is a stat driven decision.

i havent really developed exact formulas, but for instance, when a players FG3% is higher than his FG%,  i think he needs to shoot more 3s.  admittedly, that does not factor the foul shots in, but in general i think that is a nobrainer,  and quite often that leads me to players with +2  (who shoot 40%+  from 3 and basically same % from 2)

one thing that would help my decision is if i could develop a pbp analyzer that would tell me more about the FTs... how many are related to FG2 attempts?  how many are related to FG3 attempts,  how many are fouis not in the act of shooting?   i know how to get that info, but for an ameteur excceller like me,  its a fair amount of work

1/16/2014 6:11 PM
Posted by oldave on 1/16/2014 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Posted by palyak on 1/16/2014 12:52:00 PM (view original):
I add together the PE + BH + Speed.  <100 = -2,  100 to 149 = -1, 150 to 199 = 0, 200 to 239 = +1, and 240 and up = +2.  Also ... shooting 30% from 3 = shooting 45% from 2 as far as point production is concerned.
hmmm..  i dont really see the logic here

for example-
PE 20
BH 70
SP 70
your chart says 0.  i gotta believe that you actually have some minimum threshold for moving off of -2 (as some have said above,  something between 50 and 70)  and especially if this hypothetical player has great ath and lp

or on the flip side
i would think this formula would not tend to give a high enough % of 3s for  one dimensional PE players.

regarding comparison to 2s and threes...  good points made above.  additionally, i have allways wondered if there are fewer turnovers on 3 pt shots.  probably not a lot, but it seems it should reduce turnovers slighlty,

one note of caution that is probably pretty obvious, but might be overlooked and lead to some misleading data:
stats we are given include FG%  and FG3%.  we are not given FG2%.   in other words, if you want to compare a players efficiency as a 3pt shooter vs his efficiency as a 2pt shooter, you have to subtract the FG3s att and made from the total FG attempted and made. 

Sometimes the value of a three shooter is outsized to his actual percentages. For example, the existence of an even respectable high volume three point shooter on a team that is otherwise all low post players is outsized to his actual percentages in what defensive decisions it can make the opponent make - for example, making it so someone doesn't just play a heavy minus, or that they might pay for it if they do.
1/16/2014 7:02 PM
hmm..

aitb... when you decide on + - defense,  is all about 3pt volume?   or percentage of shots taken that are 3pters?  or FG3%?  or a combination?

for me it s a combination,  and if i see that if a team has a low FG3%,  im just as likely to sag as i would be if they didnt shooot very many threes.

so i wouldnt think that letting a weak 3pt shooter shoot more threes would keep defenses honest,  but maybe im wrong.

i guess we should define what 3fg% we are talking about as "poor FG3 shooter"...   for me when it starts getting in the low 30's or worse, im going to try to improve thier efficency by having them shoot fewer threes (if their fg2% is good)  or lower overall distro (if their fg2% is not so good either).  if they are mid 30's fg3%, then it depends... like you guys have said, i like to have some 3 pt threat on any team and if i dont feel we are shooting ehough threes, then mid 30s is ok.  
1/16/2014 7:11 PM
jdno,  if you are still listening,

i get what you are saying,  i ran fb at cuse for awhile and that makes sense.
but wouldnt you be unlikely to end up with very many 70-80 PE players at d3 if that is your theory?  if so it would almost seem a wasted attribute given your theory of run and gun and slash and get fouled and tire the other team out.  

im guessing your guards are almost allways fast and athletic and it just seems like you would be passing up points if you had some guys with 70-80 PE and great SP and had them passing up open threes.

do any others look at actual FG3%?   if you have a guy shooting mid 40% or better on FG3, doesnt it seem logical that you want them shooting more threes? (especially if his fg2% is not so great? )   
1/16/2014 7:16 PM
I hope this is not too far off topic,  but it does relate to perimeter shooting.  i guess technically its more of a question of "how is this guy so effective?"  and "is there something more than the ratings?"

I know, I know, ive been told a million times by selbe and admin and every great coach ever.. "there are just the ratings,  no hidden numbers",  but...    how does this guy do it?
 
Athleticism 20
1
 
Speed 55
5
 
Rebounding 22
-1
 
Defense 26
5
 
Shot Blocking 26
7
 
Low-post 36
 
 
Perimeter 67
 
 
Ball Handling 62
3
 
Passing 72
2
 
Work Ethic 75
3
 
Stamina 69
 
 
Durability 52
1
 
FT Shooting C+    
Health 100

1/16/2014 7:19 PM
Posted by oldave on 1/16/2014 7:02:00 PM (view original):
hmm..

aitb... when you decide on + - defense,  is all about 3pt volume?   or percentage of shots taken that are 3pters?  or FG3%?  or a combination?

for me it s a combination,  and if i see that if a team has a low FG3%,  im just as likely to sag as i would be if they didnt shooot very many threes.

so i wouldnt think that letting a weak 3pt shooter shoot more threes would keep defenses honest,  but maybe im wrong.

i guess we should define what 3fg% we are talking about as "poor FG3 shooter"...   for me when it starts getting in the low 30's or worse, im going to try to improve thier efficency by having them shoot fewer threes (if their fg2% is good)  or lower overall distro (if their fg2% is not so good either).  if they are mid 30's fg3%, then it depends... like you guys have said, i like to have some 3 pt threat on any team and if i dont feel we are shooting ehough threes, then mid 30s is ok.  
Percent of total shots mostly ... Although not entirely. For example if I'm significantly better than the other team I'll still go plus even on somewhat poor - mainly because allowing that many three attempts introduces too much of a random factor.

And .." Not weak, but mediocre. As in not Awesome but good enough that you are taking a risk by collapsing your defense. Mid thirties.
1/16/2014 7:25 PM
the guy is a D2... yes, D2!  SF.  i took over a rebuild job and decided to keep him for now. 

now, i realize i should probably cut him based on his lack of defense and rebounding,  but lets just say for a moment that doesnt bother me based on the fact that he is a role player and his presence kind of works in terms of class balance.

if you are just evaluating his potential as an offensive player,  would you think he could be effective off the bench as a scorer?

i would think "NO WAY"  i have several d3 players with similar pe, bh, pa, andthose guys have wayyyyyy more ath and sp,  and they are not nearly as efficent as this dude.


granted, it is a fairly weak schedule,  but not the worst (130ish SOS i think)   and coming off the bench proabbly helps him.  but on the other hand, his motion IQ is only B- and was obviously worse earlier this year and in his frosh year.

here are his stats late in his soph year:
Statistics
Yr. GP GS MIN FG% FG3% FT% OREB REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
69 20 0 19.4 .445 .352 .556 0.4 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.8 8.2
68 27 0 12.5 .449 .381 .550 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 4.0
Averages       .447 .361 .553 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 5.8



Yr. GP GS MIN FGM FGA FG3M FG3A FTM FTA OFF REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
69 20 0 388 61 137 32 91 10 18 8 33 38 21 12 1 36 164
68 27 0 337 40 89 16 42 11 20 14 35 24 17 14 3 41 107
Totals 47 0 725 101 226 48 133 21 38 22 68 62 38 26 4 77 271


1/16/2014 7:29 PM
ok,  were sayiung the same thing, a,  that if you have a mediocre 3pt shoooter (mid30 FG3%)  you might increase his 3 pt attempts if you have a lack of preimeter shooting on that team.
1/16/2014 7:36 PM
hmm,  i hadnt realized my d2 guy above had improved so much from FG2.   he's 29 for 46.  thats 63%.  even given his awful ft%, im gonna hafta decrease his 3pt shooting.   but my point still remains that just based on his offensive productivity,  this kid looks like a viable role player,  especially given that this team probably  will not be an NT team until he is a senior.

not sure why his ft% is so awful either... he is  C+,  which i would usually guess to be a low or mid 60% shooter .  im hoping its just  the small sample size of 20 or so each season.
1/16/2014 7:53 PM
Posted by oldave on 1/16/2014 7:29:00 PM (view original):
ok,  were sayiung the same thing, a,  that if you have a mediocre 3pt shoooter (mid30 FG3%)  you might increase his 3 pt attempts if you have a lack of preimeter shooting on that team.
As I said my ideal is 15% to 25% threes - enough to attract attention and prevent serious negative defenses but also not so much as to attract heavy plus defenses.
1/16/2014 9:51 PM
Posted by oldave on 1/16/2014 7:11:00 PM (view original):
jdno,  if you are still listening,

i get what you are saying,  i ran fb at cuse for awhile and that makes sense.
but wouldnt you be unlikely to end up with very many 70-80 PE players at d3 if that is your theory?  if so it would almost seem a wasted attribute given your theory of run and gun and slash and get fouled and tire the other team out.  

im guessing your guards are almost allways fast and athletic and it just seems like you would be passing up points if you had some guys with 70-80 PE and great SP and had them passing up open threes.

do any others look at actual FG3%?   if you have a guy shooting mid 40% or better on FG3, doesnt it seem logical that you want them shooting more threes? (especially if his fg2% is not so great? )   
I'm not sure I totally understand that second paragraph, though I'm pretty sure I get the gist.  Yes, I rarely have many 80+ PE guys on my team, quite often none.  Usually there's a kid in the 70's though to keep teams honest.  And it's not that I have a 70 PE kid set at -2, that's a little extreme for reasons all covered here (defenses would sag too much, wasting that attribute, etc.).  But I do like my guards to have really good ATH and SP and to able to shoot FTs well, so my percentage of shots that are 3's are usually in that 15-22% range and we usually make around 40%.  This year is an anomaly in that I have 3 guys over 80 with good IQs, so I'm allowing them to shoot more.  I'm certainly going to look at the numbers after the first 10 games and see how things look offensively. 

Having said all this, I have recognized that as recently as maybe 5 seasons ago I was shooting too few 3's, so I've kind of made an effort to go from attempting 6-10 threes per game to maybe 10-15.  And I'm trying to adjust by recruiting better shooters and not by lowering the threshold where I go from -2 to -1 to 0.  It's a work in progress I suppose as I balance what I look for in a player at a position and an overall team structure with what I see other more successful coaches doing.  Of course, running FB/FCP is a bit unique and what works for Flex/Motion/Triangle and a Man defense may need to be tweaked to maximize the effectiveness of the FB/FCP combo.

As for your D2 kid, I'd chalk up his "success" to playing an easy schedule and coming off the bench.  I'm pretty skeptical that he could perform at the same level against better competition or in a starting role.  If he was in D3, I'd say his combo of BH/LP/PE is pretty good for a guard and seems to be overcoming his pedestrian ATH/SP.  But this is D2, so I guess I'm not sold that he's anything but a decent role player (as you've described him).



1/16/2014 10:10 PM
i guess what im saying about my d2 kid is that it surprises me that he is even a "decent scorer" off the bench.  i would have thought his ath and sp would make him pretty useless at d2.... and its not like he has great PE either.  i would think most folks would say they want their d3 perimeter guys to be 70PE or close to it for a minuimum.  so here you have a kid with barely accpetable PE, poor IQ, and very little speed or athleticism,  yet he has been pretty effective for me offensively.
1/16/2014 10:13 PM
Posted by jdno on 1/16/2014 9:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oldave on 1/16/2014 7:11:00 PM (view original):
jdno,  if you are still listening,

i get what you are saying,  i ran fb at cuse for awhile and that makes sense.
but wouldnt you be unlikely to end up with very many 70-80 PE players at d3 if that is your theory?  if so it would almost seem a wasted attribute given your theory of run and gun and slash and get fouled and tire the other team out.  

im guessing your guards are almost allways fast and athletic and it just seems like you would be passing up points if you had some guys with 70-80 PE and great SP and had them passing up open threes.

do any others look at actual FG3%?   if you have a guy shooting mid 40% or better on FG3, doesnt it seem logical that you want them shooting more threes? (especially if his fg2% is not so great? )   
I'm not sure I totally understand that second paragraph, though I'm pretty sure I get the gist.  Yes, I rarely have many 80+ PE guys on my team, quite often none.  Usually there's a kid in the 70's though to keep teams honest.  And it's not that I have a 70 PE kid set at -2, that's a little extreme for reasons all covered here (defenses would sag too much, wasting that attribute, etc.).  But I do like my guards to have really good ATH and SP and to able to shoot FTs well, so my percentage of shots that are 3's are usually in that 15-22% range and we usually make around 40%.  This year is an anomaly in that I have 3 guys over 80 with good IQs, so I'm allowing them to shoot more.  I'm certainly going to look at the numbers after the first 10 games and see how things look offensively. 

Having said all this, I have recognized that as recently as maybe 5 seasons ago I was shooting too few 3's, so I've kind of made an effort to go from attempting 6-10 threes per game to maybe 10-15.  And I'm trying to adjust by recruiting better shooters and not by lowering the threshold where I go from -2 to -1 to 0.  It's a work in progress I suppose as I balance what I look for in a player at a position and an overall team structure with what I see other more successful coaches doing.  Of course, running FB/FCP is a bit unique and what works for Flex/Motion/Triangle and a Man defense may need to be tweaked to maximize the effectiveness of the FB/FCP combo.

As for your D2 kid, I'd chalk up his "success" to playing an easy schedule and coming off the bench.  I'm pretty skeptical that he could perform at the same level against better competition or in a starting role.  If he was in D3, I'd say his combo of BH/LP/PE is pretty good for a guard and seems to be overcoming his pedestrian ATH/SP.  But this is D2, so I guess I'm not sold that he's anything but a decent role player (as you've described him).



Your 15 - 22%, 40% sounds a lot like my 15-25% 38+%
1/16/2014 10:31 PM
The only thing that I know for absolute certain is that it's REALLY good to have Oldave back.  For those of you who started after he retired, HD just got one of the legends of the game and one of the all-time great HD coaches back.
1/17/2014 8:25 AM
thanks mister emy!  but geeez, lets not get carried away.  ;-)
hopefully this time around my coaching ability can catch up to my ranting ability
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