1/16/2014 7:38 AM
Just curious because of something I've noticed while gameplanning - what are people's thresholds for three settings? It seems like many to even most people I play are WAY too conservative shooting threes.
1/16/2014 9:28 AM
There was a pretty lengthy discussion about this recently.   There was some real good insight from very successful coaches.  It made me rethink and experiment with my philosophy.

To directly answer your question, I pull perimeter players off of -2 at around 60.
1/16/2014 9:33 AM
For me, it depends on their position and their previously demonstrated propensity for shooting 3s. IOW, a PF at 0 will shoot many less threes than a SG at 0. Further, some players have a higher propensity to shoot 3s than others, it seems to me. Meaning, two SGs set at 0 can shoot a different percentage of their shots from beyond the arc. So, like many other areas of this game, there is no hard and fast rule for me.
1/16/2014 9:39 AM
Nol, that propensity is more likely related to the ratio of their lp to per.

But I'll see teams with multiple three shooters over eighty who shoot five percent of their shots tops from three. Just seems ... Oddish.
1/16/2014 10:34 AM
I think for every underweighted team I see, I see an overweighted team... guys hitting 25-30% from 3-point that would be better off not taking them and getting fouled more.
1/16/2014 11:10 AM
Posted by a_in_the_b on 1/16/2014 9:39:00 AM (view original):
Nol, that propensity is more likely related to the ratio of their lp to per.

But I'll see teams with multiple three shooters over eighty who shoot five percent of their shots tops from three. Just seems ... Oddish.
I'll assume you're talking D3 here A_B. 

Speaking personally, it depends primarily on what offense I'm running, what tempo I'm running, and how good at FTs a kid is.  But the depth of my opponent and their defensive ratings also play a factor.  With a well-structured FB team, if you can get to the line 40+ times a game and shoot 70%+, I think that's a winning formula.  You'll tire the other team out and cause foul problems and then it all snowballs against the other team in the 2H of most games.  So maybe my 80 PER guard will be set at -1 to help him get to the FT line more and put those wheels in motion.  Plus ,at a -1 setting I think his 3FG% will be a bit higher than at 0 or +1, offsetting his lesser 3FGA.  I like to see consistently high Offensive Efficiencies, as I find it makes gamplanning a bit easier as well as post-game analysis, and with the FB/FCP combo, imo -1 works really well at generating a predictable offensive output.  Sometimes I will keep the kid at 0, esp. if he's an upperclassmen with better IQ.  The only time I let a sharp-shooter go +1 is when he has little athleticism to drive to the hoop or his BH and/or FT shooting is weak.  And +2 is simply non-existent for my preferred style of play.

Having said that, my Monty St. team this season has three 80+ PE kids with a lot of good REB/LP guys down low for putbacks, so I'm going to be more liberal with the 3-ball this season and see if I can learn anything.

From my observations, I know bing-ball can work. 

I know jacking up a ton of 3's with elite shooters in a non-FB offense can work. 

And in the FB/FCP style, I know winning the game at the FT line can work really well also. 

I've also seen where having elite BH and P ratings and speedy guards can work well too (think Elmhurst/ggallagh in Wooden). 

A lot of effective mousetraps out there to try, but the variability of all the game factors can mask some good insights. 

I know I'm not telling you anything you don't know already, but I am just giving you an example of why a team may shoot under ten threes a game even with solid PE (i.e. a FB/FCP system with good FT shooters and a deep bench). 

I'd love to hear what other good coaches' thoughts are on this one.

1/16/2014 12:34 PM
Personally, as long as inhave the ratings for it, i want to end up in the 15% to 25% range on threes and will usually tweak to get it there. And while i see it at d3 a good bit, what prompted this was actually d2.
1/16/2014 12:36 PM
I will sometimes do a plus two if it is my only three point shooter and its needed to get into my 15 to 25 band
1/16/2014 12:52 PM
I add together the PE + BH + Speed.  <100 = -2,  100 to 149 = -1, 150 to 199 = 0, 200 to 239 = +1, and 240 and up = +2.  Also ... shooting 30% from 3 = shooting 45% from 2 as far as point production is concerned.
1/16/2014 2:04 PM
Not quite - gotta count free throws
1/16/2014 2:33 PM
as well as somehow factor in the rotational/stamina issues created by any increased foul trouble for your opponent by slashing more vs. shooting 3's
1/16/2014 5:34 PM (edited)
Posted by a_in_the_b on 1/16/2014 7:38:00 AM (view original):
Just curious because of something I've noticed while gameplanning - what are people's thresholds for three settings? It seems like many to even most people I play are WAY too conservative shooting threes.
Most people ARE way too conservative when it comes to three point settings.  I have no problem whatsoever setting my guards to 0 when their perimeter is as low as 45-50 as long as their complementary ratings are high enough.  Waiting until a player's perimeter is at 80 to start letting him shoot threes is a waste.  Leaving a player at -2 until they hit 60 is a huge waste.

FWIW, I agree with just about everything Jdno said above.  Also, I never have any of my shooters set at a +2 and only rarely even have them at a +1.  A 0 rating will still get them plenty of three point shots.
1/16/2014 5:38 PM
is arrssanngenius = aitb?
1/16/2014 5:47 PM
indeed it is.
1/16/2014 5:53 PM
Posted by palyak on 1/16/2014 12:52:00 PM (view original):
I add together the PE + BH + Speed.  <100 = -2,  100 to 149 = -1, 150 to 199 = 0, 200 to 239 = +1, and 240 and up = +2.  Also ... shooting 30% from 3 = shooting 45% from 2 as far as point production is concerned.
hmmm..  i dont really see the logic here

for example-
PE 20
BH 70
SP 70
your chart says 0.  i gotta believe that you actually have some minimum threshold for moving off of -2 (as some have said above,  something between 50 and 70)  and especially if this hypothetical player has great ath and lp

or on the flip side
i would think this formula would not tend to give a high enough % of 3s for  one dimensional PE players.

regarding comparison to 2s and threes...  good points made above.  additionally, i have allways wondered if there are fewer turnovers on 3 pt shots.  probably not a lot, but it seems it should reduce turnovers slighlty,

one note of caution that is probably pretty obvious, but might be overlooked and lead to some misleading data:
stats we are given include FG%  and FG3%.  we are not given FG2%.   in other words, if you want to compare a players efficiency as a 3pt shooter vs his efficiency as a 2pt shooter, you have to subtract the FG3s att and made from the total FG attempted and made. 

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