1/17/2014 9:23 AM
When I select "Very Short" on a pass play, does the system treat it like a screen pass, or does the QB take a 3 step drop and go through a progression before throwing it to the receiver running the "Very Short" route? In my mind, I think I had one idea of how it worked, but it hasn't appeared to work that way in a game situation. I'm wondering (1) what others think and then (2) how would you suggest using "Very Short" from here on out?
1/17/2014 12:18 PM
I am under the impression that what you select is the 1st look.  If the 1st look is not available then it goes through some sort of progression.
1/17/2014 3:21 PM
Percentage doesn't necessarily equal outcome.

 The way I understand it, when you set up your pass distribution in the playbook, say:     vs 7   s 19   m 37   l 26   d  11   , then this is how the engine sees the probability of pass depth.  Kinda like the NBA draft lotto. Some teams have a better chance than others of coming out of the hopper first, but just because the percentage chance of the call being MED is the highest doesn't necessarily mean that is the QBs first look.  

That being said, I have a playcall that I call "Screen" . Basically I set it up to heavily favor the vs & s routes. For instructional purposes only, let's say my route tree looks like this:  vs  75  s  20   m  5  l  0  d  0.  The qb has a 75% chance of going with the vs route and a 20% chance of going s. As long as my formation in set up with the players I want in those routes, the call should go how I plan.

It is important to remember that both the formation as well as the playcall need to have your #s in the right places or the play won't go how you want.

 
1/17/2014 10:40 PM
Thanks. I think what I'm trying to determine can be summarized in this example:

If my route tree for Shotgun is this:
vs 100 s 0 m 0 l 0 d 0 
and the vs distribution in the depth chart is something like
wr 1 100, wr 2 0, te blocking, wr 3 0, wr 4 0
Then the quarterback has to throw a very short pass to WR 1, but this pass isn't always completed. 

What I think is still unclear is this (and maybe it doesn't matter): How quickly does WR 1 get the ball? What completion percentage should I expect? What are the chances of a qb sack? Is it worth putting a good blocking wr next to WR 1? (And other variations based on formation). 

Thinking about a real football game situation: if the CB is 7 yards off the line of scrimmage and the QB throws to WR 1 immediately, he gets 1-2 yards minimum every time. But I'm not entirely convinced that's how the engine treats vs, which is why I brought it up. 

I suppose I'm not factoring in Defense positioning for pass plays (if they guard short, medium or long, etc). 
1/18/2014 10:22 PM
No one really knows...so you will have to experiment.

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