All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Gridiron Dynasty > Ticket response (after well over 2 weeks mind you)
2/5/2014 1:44 AM
I'm sure you all have found some sort of answer before that has left you more frustrated then when you started. This is certainly the case here.

[quote]
Hello Noah,
From investigating the game it looks like William Patterson had some pretty long plays that kind of inflated their stats. I know that some game results should to be more lopsided than they appear, but the flow of a game dictates much of a single games results.

I can run some test simulations to find out what the aggregate results would be from these two teams if think that would help explain the results better for you. Beyond that, it's difficult to find one attribute or one situation that made the game close. I'm guessing that the simulations would show the standard victory is much more substantial, but there are games that live outside of the standard deviation.

Also, it appears that your Running back had 153 yards, which doesn't seem like a pedestrian result. I'm sorry that the score of the game has changed your opinion of the new engine, but the changes have been largely bug related recently.

Please let me know if there is anything I can show you that would help alleviate the doubts you have.
Thanks.
[/quote]

153 yards on 36 attempts is pedestrian, based on the ratings I was going by, however his next ticket update (and I absolutely believe this is oriole himself responding) gives me an idea of just how off my (and frankly nearly everyones) idea of what is important is significantly off. I'm going to do some tinkering to see if I can reproduce the numbers in this ticket to confirm or deny a suspicion I have about ratings importance and 2.0 vs 3.0.

[quote]

Noah, I investigated this problem that you are seeing. I created a brand new test to allow me to input the exact teams into the system. So discounting game planning and formation IQ, I can run 10 tests games to see what the average score is between the two teams (given standard playcalling)

Looks like you win most of the time.
In the ten cases I ran you had a score of 39.15 (with a 7.86 stdDev) and he had a 14.15 (with a 8.6 stdDev).

Here are the scores for 10 games.
HomeTeam 48 41 40 27 43 52 30 41 26 40
AwayTeam 16 20 17 20 14 9 3 30 10 34

Also, some of his prowess can be associated with his relatively deep team

Here are the average rating differences by position.
QB RB WR TE OL DL LB DB
HomeTeam 39.29 45.87 43.67 45.21 45.29 42.37 42.17 47.69
AwayTeam 41.04 45.30 41.10 41.21 40.26 43.18 40.40 44.57

You have the better team, and it shows in the results, but he has a good enough team that once in a while he will give you a close game.

Hope that helps.

[/quote]

And all I will say is that those numbers are gamechangingly different then any number I have come up with in my testing. Any number that is in GUESS. Even if you are talking about the whole group of players those numbers (with a notable exception of DB's, which is HIGHER then any formula would show me) are lower then the lowest rated player in that group.

So now I know. I know that I have no freaking idea what goes into the engine. I guess I already had deduced that. When I was in beta my numbers had little difference to the engine numbers (and for those that didn't know we could see those in test game), and now there is a huge disparity.



2/5/2014 1:55 AM
My problem with this game in 2.0 was just what was illustrated in the 10 game test he did.

High score Bridgewater  52
Low score Bridgewater  26
High score Paterson 34
Low score Paterson 3

That is a 57 point deviation over 10 games. Invariably, there are deviations in football. The closer in talent the teams are, the more deviation there likely is. These are largely based on environmental factors and injuries (which neither are present in this game atm). I would argue if all the variables, weather, injuries, etc were held constant the standard deviation in a football game would be very slight. But lets just say we are trying to simulate those variables (outside of injuries which eventually will be reintroduced). I am not comfortable with a deviation of 57 points in the engine. I'm just not. 28? Maybe. 35? stretching it. 57 points is just plain random (without injury factors)

2/5/2014 10:17 AM
Noah,

Do you have a snap shot of your teams attributes from this game?  If so, we could likely backtrack to figure out how to arrive at these averages that Support gave you.  Might be a time to revamp the GUESS ratings to something closer to what the engine is actually using.

QB RB WR TE OL DL LB DB
HomeTeam 39.29 45.87 43.67 45.21 45.29 42.37 42.17 47.69
AwayTeam 41.04 45.30 41.10 41.21 40.26 43.18 40.40 44.57
2/5/2014 10:20 AM
Well we at least have what your stats started off like at the beginning of the season if nothing else.

guess.gdreports.com/player/full
2/5/2014 11:28 AM
unfortunately I don't have the snapshot. I've been trying to do just that myself since I got this response.
2/5/2014 11:29 AM
Ask again via the ticket...they should be able to give you that.
2/5/2014 11:59 AM
Wow, they got back to you in a hurry!  I'm coming up on two months for my tickets.
2/5/2014 12:46 PM
Posted by jtd79 on 2/5/2014 10:17:00 AM (view original):
Noah,

Do you have a snap shot of your teams attributes from this game?  If so, we could likely backtrack to figure out how to arrive at these averages that Support gave you.  Might be a time to revamp the GUESS ratings to something closer to what the engine is actually using.

QB RB WR TE OL DL LB DB
HomeTeam 39.29 45.87 43.67 45.21 45.29 42.37 42.17 47.69
AwayTeam 41.04 45.30 41.10 41.21 40.26 43.18 40.40 44.57
If I had a clue what the engine was using... :)
2/5/2014 1:39 PM
Well what he is talking about trying to draw something from those ratings.

2/5/2014 1:39 PM
Posted by slid64er on 2/5/2014 11:59:00 AM (view original):
Wow, they got back to you in a hurry!  I'm coming up on two months for my tickets.
It might have something to do with it being the only ticket I've sent in since I've been here.
2/5/2014 1:56 PM
Since the forum posts allow tables, and sitemail does not ----
Here's the 2.0 ratings formulas:
  ATH SPD DUR WE STA STR BLK TKL H GI ELU TECH
CB 0.06 0.17       0.08   0.04 0.09 0.22 0.08 0.26
DE 0.12 0.14       0.13   0.19   0.10 0.15 0.17
DT 0.12 0.04       0.22   0.28   0.06 0.13 0.15
FB 0.13 0.03       0.22 0.25   0.04 0.18 0.03 0.12
ILB 0.12 0.04       0.13   0.28   0.22 0.06 0.15
K           0.40       0.15   0.45
OL 0.10 0.12       0.20 0.25     0.20   0.13
OLB 0.12 0.17       0.13   0.15   0.18 0.10 0.15
P           0.45       0.15   0.40
QB 0.10 0.10       0.18     0.07 0.25 0.08 0.22
RB 0.20 0.23       0.20     0.03 0.03 0.27 0.04
S 0.10 0.17       0.08   0.22 0.06 0.26 0.04 0.07
TE 0.06 0.04       0.07 0.09   0.28 0.15 0.22 0.09
WR 0.15 0.17       0.04     0.21 0.17 0.20 0

.06
2/5/2014 3:29 PM
I thought the engine was going off of the "position roles". Although if that's not the case then I'm not surprised that its the blind leading the blind here.
2/5/2014 8:46 PM
yeah...my idea was a dud. I cannot find a way to reproduce the ratings stated in my ticket response.
2/5/2014 10:14 PM
Posted by noah23 on 2/5/2014 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by slid64er on 2/5/2014 11:59:00 AM (view original):
Wow, they got back to you in a hurry!  I'm coming up on two months for my tickets.
It might have something to do with it being the only ticket I've sent in since I've been here.
So you're only allowed to have one legitimate question at a time?  No wonder this engine isn't improving.
2/6/2014 11:37 PM
I dunno slid.....all I know is that the responses (and there have been three separate ones) have only shown one thing. Oriole's version of acceptable deviation in results and mine are so far removed from each other, it seems it will never even be attempted to be bridged.

He is proud of the standard deviation in this engine. I guess he doesn't care about the outlier numbers. What I care about is the outlier numbers. They should not exist, or they should be 1 in 100 not 3 in 10. I want this game to work. I want to play this game. Its clear I no longer understand anything about it, and what I now understand about results I do not like. These deviations are happening with NO INJURIES. What happens when injuries are introduced? is the worst team in the league going to be able to compete with the best randomly?

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