All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Gridiron Dynasty > How big of difference in Average v Good Potential?
2/14/2014 9:35 AM
Question, polabonez.

How much do you pay attention to recruit class rankings?  Or how big of a difference is there if I wait till after signing day, like you do (for your various reasons), and then go after my recruiting class?  I always try to sign HP guys but always want the best guys available which leads to more battles, wasted money and eventually having to fall back to option 2 or 3 for some positions.  In DIII is it even worth battling?  Or can you simply avoid a lot or all battles and sign lesser talented HP HWE guys and end up just fine.  

I know, I know it's about core scores when they are seniors not overall talent.
2/14/2014 9:44 AM
You want to recruit early.  If you look at my team I'll bet 90 % of them are after signings / undecideds... 1) because I'm lazy and 2) because I'm really just trying to figure out the new engine...  Recruiting isn't really a problem to me.  But I'd say it's 95% of the problem for most of the other DIII teams I see.  But this team isn't going to win a championship.  We are going to compete... but not win an NC.

I get in a battle or two recruiting season at DIII, but you have to know when and where to do it.  I see a lot of guys battling for a 53/54/30 DL with good potential when there is a 50/51/27 DL undecided with good potential and a higher WE... Meaning you can get the same player for free.

Get all the guys you can locked down cheap..  Good Potential, Good cores, Good WE...  Then if you have extra cash look long distance or go into a battle for that "Stud" or two , because worst case scenario you have already locked down a good class. 

With the words being so empty, you can usually find long distance guys that you just have to beat off  Sims just as easy as a battle, because typically the battles are for the guys with higher cores...  Not for the guys who will have higher cores after 4 years of practice.  The difference in winning NC's and not is knowing which are which.
2/14/2014 9:59 AM
The other thing is.. If you have a question, just ask one of the guys you see on here.  Sitemail is generally the best... I don't answer too many questions on the boards anymore because many of them are Engine - Related, and tbh, I can't help as much with this new one.  Working on that, but I don't have all of the answers.  Brad (Bhouska) Reid (Slid64er) and a handful of other coaches are generally always willing to help.  But recruiting wise - if you have questions about how to do it, don't be afraid to ask one of the guys you see having success doing it.  

The reason sitemail is best, is because if you ask the question on this board... and bhouska answers it...  He's just giving all your competition free pointers too...  Not that he minds... because competition is generally welcome once you know what you are doing.. but if you have questions and want to understand (without giving pointers out to everyone else) find somebody and ask the questions.

I was fortunate a long, long time ago to be in a google group that consisted of some of the top coaches in this game, and others that would become the top coaches in the game.    We bounced ideas off each other daily... tried different things, shared practice plans and formulas, tested growth....  

If you want to win in this game.. You have to put the effort in to understand how it works.  Learning from the guys who know what they are talking about just speeds up the process.  



2/14/2014 10:07 AM
rmns116, I just looked at your Central team.  It looks pretty solid.  Just looking at it, and not knowing what the potentials of your guys are.. I see some guys with 20-30 work ethic on your team.  Back in the old days (Recruits didn't use to gain WE for playing time / promised starts) this wouldn't work it all.  Now you can take lower WE guys because you can improve that by starting them, but I'd still say you are aiming a bit too low.   I have a hard time believing that your 56/45 OL with 23 Work Ethic as a *SO that you couldn't have found the same guy with 40+ WE for cheap.

That's the difference between your SR OL who is 50/65 and your SR OL who is 80/54


2/14/2014 10:08 AM
OK, I'm going back to my hole now.

Point any questions to bhouska.  You're welcome, bud.

2/14/2014 11:00 AM
Posted by moreron on 2/12/2014 2:30:00 PM (view original):
Which is better - WE 50 with ave potential or WE 39 with good potential (with equal Guess ratings of course)? At D3, I've always thought that the WE50 would be the best recruit.
I know this one.

Think of potential to be the size of the container that you are pouring the liquid of ability from and WE to be the rate that you are pouring that container into your athlete.

If the WE is low, you are not pouring fast enough to completely empty the pitcher. If the potential is low, then you have a limited amount to add, and you may be able to get them to their full potential quickly (empty the pitcher) if you have a high WE.

2/14/2014 11:12 AM
And I tracked most of that here: http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=382500&page=1

At one point. I had all this on a computer that died years ago.

2/14/2014 2:37 PM
Posted by helgi on 2/13/2014 10:13:00 AM (view original):
There are coaches with multiple NCs who have said they never use scouting visits. So, clearly, it is possible to be successful while focusing only on "talent" and work ethic and ignoring the question of potential. That said, in D2 and D3, the ~4pts of difference in GUESS rating (or any other similar system) that you cite as "not a huge difference" is the difference between competing for titles and being a fringe playoff contender.

I think you are setting up a false dichotomy. You don't have to choose between talent and potential, or choose 2 out of 3 among talent, potential and work ethic. There are recruits with all of the above.

[Note: I haven't coached at D1A under the new engine. Certainly in the old days, player development wasn't as critical at that level, rendering WE and potential much less important.]



Show me one of those coaches.....

Not in DIII and probably not in DII either.  They might have won their NC's in DIA, but doubtful that they won in DIII or DII with that attitude regarding WE and Potential.
2/14/2014 2:42 PM
Posted by chalvorson on 2/13/2014 2:12:00 PM (view original):
You have fair points.  Slid64er has been playing much, much longer than I have.  I'm sure he has forgotten more than I know.  That said, im sure he is a fantastic recruiter, practice time maximizer and game planner.

I looked at 3 of his Sr players on Moravain at the start of the current Yost season.  That means they have had 3 years of growth just like my guys from the above table.  The 3 I looked at are below.  The 1st number is their original recruit WE and the 2nd number is the avg increase in attributes over the first 3 years;

Corey Johnson (RB) 48 / 15.9
Walter Wilson (WR) 42 / 15.8
Francis Collier (TE) 52 /  15.0

Clearly, each of these 3 guys have grown a good amount.  If you say they are all good potential, then they are much like my guy above John Evens (TE).  John was good potential and 53 WE as an incoming Fr.  My point is that through years of experience slid64er knows something (many things) I don't.  His guys with good potential and similar WE grew 1.3 points more over the same 1st 3 years.

I think slid64ers player attribute growth is because he knows things to maximize the growth outside of our conversation here about talent, WE & potential. If he signed an average potential recruit, they would likely have grown more than my average players growth of 8.6 over the first 3 years because of what he knows.

Did your guys and his guys play the same amount of games those 3 seasons?  That makes a huge difference.  If you're talking about his Moravian team, they played in the NC game, which is 19 games in one season.  So, are you comparing apples to apples?

 

2/14/2014 2:49 PM
Posted by bhouska on 2/14/2014 2:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by helgi on 2/13/2014 10:13:00 AM (view original):
There are coaches with multiple NCs who have said they never use scouting visits. So, clearly, it is possible to be successful while focusing only on "talent" and work ethic and ignoring the question of potential. That said, in D2 and D3, the ~4pts of difference in GUESS rating (or any other similar system) that you cite as "not a huge difference" is the difference between competing for titles and being a fringe playoff contender.

I think you are setting up a false dichotomy. You don't have to choose between talent and potential, or choose 2 out of 3 among talent, potential and work ethic. There are recruits with all of the above.

[Note: I haven't coached at D1A under the new engine. Certainly in the old days, player development wasn't as critical at that level, rendering WE and potential much less important.]



Show me one of those coaches.....

Not in DIII and probably not in DII either.  They might have won their NC's in DIA, but doubtful that they won in DIII or DII with that attitude regarding WE and Potential.
jfootball wrote that in a thread somewhere but then deleted it
2/14/2014 2:58 PM
I saw that post and found it interesting.  He said it wasn't cost-effective to send out a scouting trip at DIII, so he hasn't for three seasons (I think I've got that right).
2/14/2014 3:21 PM
I wish everybody recruited that way, that would leave more High Potential guys for me!  
2/14/2014 4:51 PM
Posted by bhouska on 2/14/2014 3:21:00 PM (view original):
I wish everybody recruited that way, that would leave more High Potential guys for me!  
Totally agree.
2/15/2014 12:27 PM
This is hard to read. Chalvorson has no idea what he's talking about. He's weighting growth based on all attributes being equal. They're not. Until you understand that you'll struggle with what people are trying to say.
2/15/2014 10:22 PM
Posted by frankum on 2/15/2014 12:27:00 PM (view original):
This is hard to read. Chalvorson has no idea what he's talking about. He's weighting growth based on all attributes being equal. They're not. Until you understand that you'll struggle with what people are trying to say.
That's not true. Here's the whole table behind my example of cumulative growth by each attribute.

    ATH SPD DUR WE STA STR BLK TKL HAN GI ELU TEC
                           
DL James Lara 19 12 17 24 14 15 -10 14 12 19 13 18
DB Albert Pugh 15 12 15 26 16 -2 0 18 10 16 16 15
OL Benjamin Griffin 12 7 12 18 12 8 11 -10 -10 14 9 14
DB Brian Wood 12 12 13 24 17 -2 -7 14 10 17 14 15
DL James McCarty 14 8 12 19 12 12 -10 10 9 13 12 15
K Joe Kelley 14 12 16 32 17 14 -9 -4 -5 17 -10 16
TE John Evans 15 11 13 26 16 11 10 -10 14 17 16 14
OL Marcus Walsh 14 7 12 16 11 9 12 -10 -10 12 11 13
LB Paul Sherman 14 12 12 12 13 13 -7 11 7 12 13 14
OL Pedro Adkins 15 11 14 26 13 13 14 -10 -5 16 10 18
RB Robert Smith 11 10 10 1 12 9 7 -10 12 15 10 12
LB Tommy Wagner 12 10 11 3 14 11 -10 11 10 13 12 12
LB Frank Hamilton 9 8 9 -4 9 8 -10 7 7 11 9 10
RB Robert Small 11 8 6 -6 7 8 6 -10 10 11 8 9
RB James Ponce 10 9 6 4 8 7 6 -10 9 8 8 8

We all get the different attributes by position.  averaging the increase per attribute to one number was for ease of discussion.
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