All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > 2014 Predictions Thread
3/18/2014 2:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/18/2014 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I suppose a .280 hitter with 30 homers who never walks and strikes out a lot could be a MVP.   I can't imagine how bad everyone else would have to be offensively for that to happen but I guess it could.   Otherwise, there's no reason to believe he's figured something out.    He hasn't had a spike in walks or drastic decrease in whiffs.   And that's what has to happen for him to be something else. 
Devil's advocate:

other than his MVP season, Josh Hamilton has only hit .300 once
Juan-Gone fits that description and did it twice

Finally, in the guys from the past few decades category:

Terry Pendleton

Enough said?  Dude was 30 with 3700+ plate appearances coming into the 1991 season.  .259/.308/.356.  That's all.

I was the first one to jump on jtp for saying Jones was an MVP.  And part of it is because modern Sabermetrics mean a season like Pendleton had in 1991 probably isn't an MVP season.  But let's not act like it's that absurd.
3/18/2014 2:19 PM
Pendleton is the only one I'd consider valid.   And he was right in the middle of the steroid era too.

Hamilton was a drunken druggie who couldn't stay healthy when he was sober.   One great year from a guy who puts it all together isn't that far-fetched.  AJ has played several full seasons without injury or trips to rehab.
Juan-Gone, well, I think we know what powered him.

So, yeah, I don't see any indication that Jones will become a different player this year.   Still swings at everything and misses a lot of them.   If he suddenly had a 60/80 BB/K season, his numbers would look a lot different.   But I don't know why anyone would think he's not following the Alfonso Soriano path.
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3/18/2014 10:45 PM
Still not sure why it's that far fetched. Jones has improved his numbers in HRs, RBI and hits every year of his career to date. He's also scored 100 runs each of the last two years. The guy is still a 5 tool player capable of a .300, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 20 steal season, and that could be good enough for MVP, especially if the O's make the playoffs.
3/18/2014 10:47 PM
Posted by boogerlips on 3/18/2014 7:01:00 PM (view original):
Matt Carpenter is a surprising pick for MVP? Sheesh, as a Cardinals fan it wouldn't have even occurred to me to pick him.

Wainwright is always a lock to finish second in CY voting!
He finished a close 4th to Yadier in last year's voting. He's a spark plug for that team. Not the typical type of player that usually wins MVP, but he's good enough to do it.
3/19/2014 2:18 AM
Juan-Gone, well, I think we know what powered him.
So all the years he didn't win the MVP he wasn't juicing?
3/19/2014 2:30 AM
AL East                                  NL East
Rays                                      Nationals
Red Sox                                Braves
Yankees                               Mets
Orioles                                  Phillies
Blue Jays                             Marlins

AL Central                            NL Central 
Tigers                                   Cards
Indians                                 Pirates
Royals                                  Reds
White Sox                            Brewers
Twins                                   Cubs

AL West                               NL West
Atheletics                            Dodgers
Angels                                 Giants
Rangers                             Dbacks
Mariners                             Padres 
Astros                                 Rockies

AL MVP  - Longoria           NL MVP - Puig
AL C Y   - Verlander         NL CY - Bumgardner
MOY -  Maddon or Melvin                MOY - Williams

No idea about ROY, don't know enough about the candidates to make a prediction.

Also, Scosia and Washington will be fired during or at the end of the season 
3/19/2014 8:42 AM
Posted by dahsdebater on 3/19/2014 2:18:00 AM (view original):
Juan-Gone, well, I think we know what powered him.
So all the years he didn't win the MVP he wasn't juicing?
Huh?    Dude hit .290ish with 40 homers half a dozen times.    Do you think he was the only juicer having a good year?

Seriously, WTF are you arguing?
AJ is a .280 hitter capable of 30 homers with 30 walks and a 130 strikeouts.   He's been doing the same thing pretty consistently, while adding some power, and this is his 7th full season.   Gonzalez came up hitting.  .289 in limited duty.  .264 with 27 homers, .260 with 43 homers and then he went off.    In what way are they similar?
3/19/2014 10:20 AM
Posted by Jtpsops on 3/18/2014 10:45:00 PM (view original):
Still not sure why it's that far fetched. Jones has improved his numbers in HRs, RBI and hits every year of his career to date. He's also scored 100 runs each of the last two years. The guy is still a 5 tool player capable of a .300, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 20 steal season, and that could be good enough for MVP, especially if the O's make the playoffs.
His career best OBP was something like .330 a couple years ago. It's likely his OBP stays in the .315 range this year. Someone who makes an out over 68% of the time is almost never the best player in the league.
3/19/2014 12:24 PM
Adam Jones' last two seasons were almost identical, with low 30s HR, around 100 RBI and low teens SB. Jumping up to 40 HR, 120 RBI and 20 SB seems unlikely. And even if he does, he still won't be close to Mike Trout's production.
3/19/2014 8:31 PM
A. L. East                                                             


1 Balt
2. TB
3. Toronto
4 Bosox
5. Yanks

AL Central

1. Clev
2. Det
3. KC
4. Minn
5. ChiSox

AL West

1.A's
2. Tex
3. Sea.
4. Ang.
5. Stros

NL East
 1. Wash
2. Phil
3. Atl
4. Mia
5. Muts


NL Cent

1. Cards
2. Reds
3. Cubs
4. Brew
5.Pit

Nl West

1. Ariz.
2. SF
3. LA
4. SD
5. Col






3/20/2014 1:01 AM
WTF...Cleveland??? Their pitching is ATROCIOUS!!! WTF are u smoking???
3/20/2014 12:17 PM
I took Adam Jones in my Yahoo draft. Hope you're right JT!
3/20/2014 1:48 PM
Posted by Got_Worms on 3/20/2014 12:17:00 PM (view original):
I took Adam Jones in my Yahoo draft. Hope you're right JT!
He's still pretty useful in a 5X5. Just don't take him before the third or fourth round in an OBP league.
3/20/2014 5:55 PM
Posted by rsp777 on 3/20/2014 1:01:00 AM (view original):
WTF...Cleveland??? Their pitching is ATROCIOUS!!! WTF are u smoking???
I don't know, but I want some of it!!! Orioles winning the al East? Indians winning the AL Central? Dodgers finishing 3rd in the NL West?? None of those three things will happen...at least not this season.
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